Carson Tinney

C Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 22 R/R A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#494ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	21	AMIN	105	.203/.400/.532	8	1	89	—	.151/.305/.384
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBMIN	215	.212/.304/.380	8	2	94	0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBMIN	41	.216/.307/.386	1	0	95	0.1
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBMIN	89	.218/.308/.390	3	1	97	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Max EV98

BB%90

Chase%89

Speed60

Whiff%49

K%42

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 1.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsKyle Wilson (age 23) · Michael McKenry (age 24) · Ryan Lavarnway (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 66 proj PA

wRC+†94

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .302 / .377

PA66

HR2

K%31

BB%10

ISO168

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$23M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	105	79	16	2	0	8	23	28	3	1	1	203	400	532	932	329	186	27	22	409	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	105	86	13	2	0	6	16	38	3	1	1	151	305	384	688	233	156	36	15	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	105	86	13	2	0	6	16	38	3	1	1	151	305	384	688	233	167	36	15	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	105	79	16	2	0	8	23	28	3	1	1	203	400	532	932	329	186	27	22	409	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	105	85	13	2	0	6	16	38	3	1	1	153	305	388	693	235	156	36	15	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	105	85	13	2	0	6	16	38	3	1	1	153	305	388	693	235	156	36	15	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	215	188	40	6	1	8	22	66	3	2	1	212	304	380	684	168	278	31	10	307	94	-2	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	120	105	23	4	1	4	12	36	2	1	0	215	306	385	692	170	280	30	10	309	95	-1	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIN	46%	192	168	37	6	1	7	19	57	3	2	1	218	308	389	697	171	281	30	10	312	97	-1	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIN	52%	256	225	49	8	1	9	26	75	3	2	1	220	309	392	701	172	282	29	10	313	98	-1	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	307	269	60	10	2	11	31	89	4	2	1	221	310	393	703	172	282	29	10	314	98	-1	+0	-1	+5	+7	1.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	333	293	66	11	2	12	33	96	4	2	1	221	309	391	700	170	282	29	10	313	98	-1	+0	-1	+6	+7	1.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	345	304	67	11	2	12	34	100	4	2	1	219	307	386	693	167	281	29	10	310	96	-2	+0	-1	+6	+7	1.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	342	301	66	11	2	12	34	100	4	2	1	217	304	380	684	163	279	29	10	306	93	-3	+0	-2	+6	+7	0.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIN	52%	336	296	63	10	2	11	33	100	4	2	3	214	301	372	672	158	277	30	10	301	90	-4	-1	-3	+6	+7	0.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	MIN	52%	305	269	56	9	1	10	30	92	3	2	3	209	296	362	657	152	274	30	10	295	86	-5	-1	-3	+5	+7	0.3
2037	32	MLB MLE	MIN	52%	272	241	49	8	1	8	26	83	3	2	3	204	289	349	638	145	269	31	10	288	81	-6	-1	-4	+5	+6	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	41	36	7	1	0	1	4	12	1	0	0	216	307	386	693	170	280	29	10	310	95	-0	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIN	46%	89	79	17	3	0	3	9	26	1	1	0	218	308	390	698	172	281	29	10	312	97	-0	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIN	52%	132	116	26	4	1	5	13	39	2	1	0	220	309	393	702	172	282	30	10	313	98	-0	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	166	146	32	5	1	6	17	48	2	1	0	221	310	394	704	173	282	29	10	314	98	-0	+0	-0	+3	+4	0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	181	159	35	6	1	6	18	52	2	1	0	222	309	392	701	171	282	29	10	313	98	-0	+0	-0	+3	+4	0.7
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	187	164	37	6	1	7	19	54	2	1	1	220	307	387	695	168	281	29	10	310	96	-1	-0	-1	+3	+4	0.6
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	182	160	35	6	1	6	18	53	2	1	1	217	304	381	685	164	279	29	10	307	93	-1	-0	-1	+3	+4	0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIN	52%	176	155	33	5	1	6	17	52	2	1	2	214	301	373	673	159	277	30	10	302	90	-2	-1	-1	+3	+4	0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	MIN	52%	159	141	30	5	1	5	15	48	2	1	2	210	296	362	658	153	274	30	9	296	86	-3	-1	-2	+3	+3	0.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	MIN	52%	141	125	26	4	1	4	13	43	2	1	1	204	290	350	639	145	269	30	9	288	81	-3	-0	-2	+3	+3	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1454	1281	278	45	8	49	143	427	18	9	7	217	304	379	684	162	282	29	10	306	93	-12	-1	-9	+26	+32	3.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	125	20	4	22	64	191	8	4	3	218	306	382	688	164	283	29	10	306	93	-5	-0	-4	+12	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2979	2615	561	92	15	104	301	886	38	21	16	215	305	380	685	166	278	30	10	306	93	-24	-2	-17	+51	+62	7.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	122	20	3	23	66	193	8	5	3	214	304	380	684	166	277	30	10	306	93	-5	-0	-4	+12	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 105 PAwOBA .398 → .300 (−98)K% 26.7% → 36.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.67%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	36.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.90%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.015	15.34%
HBP% /PA	2.86%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	2.26%
Singles /BIP	11.76%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×1.015	10.44%
Doubles /BIP	3.92%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×1.015	3.14%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.950	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	15.69%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.015	12.74%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .398 → .300; ISO .329 → .254; BABIP .186 → .156. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Robinson Chirinoslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,427 PA	3.7	2,427	95	5	227	320	420	+43	-10	12.9	13.8
/162	664	26	1	+11.9	-2.8	3.5	pk7: 15
#2Stephen Vogtlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,571 PA	3.9	2,571	82	5	241	303	410	+36	-11	9.3	9.4
/162	664	21	1	+9.2	-2.8	2.4	pk7: 9
#3Elrod Hendricks'68-'79 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,155 PA	3.2	2,155	62	1	224*	308*	401*	+37	-0	8.7	8.7
/162	664	19	0	+11.4	-0.1	2.7	pk7: 9
#4Devin Mesoracolast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,574 PA	2.4	1,574	58	4	232	309	406	+28	-13	6.0	6.2
/162	664	24	2	+11.9	-5.3	2.5	pk7: 6
#5Tim Laudner'81-'89 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,268 PA	3.4	2,268	77	3	222*	292*	409*	+34	-1	6.0	6.1
/162	664	23	1	+9.8	-0.3	1.8	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.3	1,520	52	10	217	301	381	+27	-12	5.5	5.0
/162	664	23	4	+11.9	-5.2	2.4	pk7: 4
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carson Tinney (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	210/302/377	166	278	2	1	31%	10%	94	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kyle Wilson 2006 · A	23	46	55→60	38→30	38	239/286/424	185	309	24	4	31%	5%	98	+1.2	216/259/333	117	277	12	4	26%	4%	66	-1.1	194/230/280	86	245	7	0	24%	2%	40	-1.4
✕Michael McKenry 2009 · A	24	42→47	52→55	38→40	47	222/296/395	173	273	20	4	27%	8%	95	+0.9	222/285/357	135	279	14	3	25%	8%	81	-0.1	248/321/426	177	294	23	2	23%	9%	111	+0.8
●Ryan Lavarnway 2010 · A	22	44→46	53→55	43→30	41	226/285/402	176	308	20	3	32%	7%	92	+0.7	236/302/401	165	298	20	2	27%	8%	98	+1.2	235/303/390	155	288	20	1	25%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Andy Marte 2006 · MLB	22	45→49	53→55	37→40	52	233/305/408	175	268	20	3	22%	10%	101	+1.4	228/278/386	158	268	18	3	22%	6%	85	+0.2	240/289/401	161	270	19	2	19%	6%	92	+0.4
✕Travis Denker 2007 · A	21	45→51	49→50	37→45	54	228/313/371	143	268	17	3	22%	10%	95	+1.0	231/301/358	127	283	12	5	21%	9%	87	+0.4	228/292/363	135	273	14	6	21%	7%	83	+0.1
●Mark Vientos 2022 · AAA	22	43→51	56→60	38→30	37	228/276/415	187	306	25	3	34%	6%	92	+0.7	246/303/435	189	333	25	2	32%	7%	107	+1.8	247/307/448	201	309	26	1	28%	7%	110	+1.8
●Tom Murphy 2014 · AA	23	42→38	50→65	42→45	39	211/276/367	156	300	17	5	34%	6%	81	-0.1	212/267/380	168	296	20	5	34%	6%	80	-0.1	247/319/462	214	314	30	2	30%	9%	119	+1.2
✕Marcos Castañon 2023 · A	24	38→48	51→50	38→40	46	201/294/355	155	278	19	2	33%	10%	86	+0.3	220/281/359	139	288	16	3	28%	7%	80	-0.1	222/277/356	134	285	15	2	27%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Sergio Pedroza 2007 · A	23	42→46	56→60	38→45	48	221/315/416	195	294	24	3	32%	10%	107	+1.8	229/303/389	160	305	18	7	29%	8%	96	+1.0	227/297/375	148	293	16	7	27%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Max Stassi 2013 · A	22	43→45	48→55	44→40	40	219/279/357	139	300	16	5	32%	6%	79	-0.2	222/269/363	141	295	16	3	30%	5%	76	-0.4	216/302/377	161	281	21	0	29%	10%	94	+0.4
●Derek Norris 2011 · A	22	43→53	50→55	44→50	53	214/320/371	157	294	18	6	32%	12%	98	+1.2	213/305/381	168	277	20	11	29%	11%	95	+1.0	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
●Iván Herrera 2022 · AA	22	43→53	48→50	40→50	48	219/299/351	132	281	17	4	28%	9%	86	+0.3	245/334/373	128	318	13	10	25%	11%	103	+1.6	263/357/416	152	307	19	10	20%	10%	123	+2.6
✕Joey Bart 2020 · AA	23	43	53→55	45→40	38	228/270/395	166	287	21	7	29%	5%	84	+0.2	235/289/374	139	337	16	5	33%	6%	86	+0.3	251/343/392	142	332	17	1	27%	10%	112	+1.0
✕Ian Rice 2018 · AA	24	39→40	51→50	41→30	50	208/291/361	154	264	19	3	29%	10%	85	+0.2	201/283/316	115	282	12	3	31%	9%	72	-0.7	183/271/276	93	265	9	1	32%	9%	58	-0.9
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	39→49	56→60	45→50	45	211/297/402	191	273	24	6	31%	9%	97	+1.1	243/312/420	177	306	20	9	26%	7%	106	+1.8	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
✕Tyler Ogle 2014 · A	23	44→43	45→50	39→30	55	220/312/345	124	258	13	5	20%	10%	89	+0.5	216/294/358	142	266	17	3	24%	9%	85	+0.2	204/279/353	149	250	19	0	26%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Michael Wing 2012 · A	23	49→50	47→55	35→40	41	245/290/379	135	305	14	4	24%	5%	88	+0.4	214/254/333	119	280	11	5	27%	4%	63	-1.3	224/265/377	153	286	16	4	27%	4%	77	-0.2
✕Nick Hundley 2008 · AA	24	41→45	50→55	39→40	45	214/272/365	151	255	17	3	24%	7%	78	-0.3	223/279/378	155	271	18	4	24%	7%	84	+0.1	252/317/421	169	318	16	4	25%	8%	108	+1.0
✕Eddys Leonard 2023 · A	22	45→47	48→50	45→50	42	226/295/372	146	296	15	5	28%	6%	89	+0.5	222/280/363	141	284	16	8	27%	6%	81	-0.1	215/271/359	144	269	17	9	26%	5%	74	-0.4
✕Nathan Hickey 2023 · A	23	43→40	54→50	43→40	51	219/317/402	183	298	22	3	32%	12%	104	+1.6	202/283/351	149	288	17	4	34%	10%	80	-0.2	186/266/323	137	264	16	3	34%	9%	65	-1.0

Carson Tinney

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps