Kaden Carpenter

RF Hickory Crawdads

Age 24 L/L A HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	23	ATEX	135	.229/.396/.476	6	8	84	—	.186/.313/.381
2027PROJ0% MLB	24	MLBTEX	200	.210/.290/.347	5	6	80	0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBTEX	55	.214/.293/.357	1	2	82	-0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBTEX	121	.215/.294/.361	3	4	83	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed94

ISO93

wRC+88

BB%88

wOBA86

Chase%76

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsCam Gibson (age 24) · J.P. Martínez (age 25) · Nick Podkul (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 106 proj PA

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .287 / .343

PA106

HR3

K%31

BB%8

ISO137

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	23	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	135	105	24	4	2	6	24	34	5	8	2	229	396	476	872	248	273	25	18	386	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	23	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	135	113	21	3	2	5	16	46	5	8	2	186	313	381	694	195	238	34	12	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	135	113	21	3	2	5	16	46	5	8	2	186	313	381	694	195	254	34	12	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	—	135	105	24	4	2	6	24	34	5	8	2	229	396	476	872	248	273	25	18	386	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	135	113	21	3	2	5	16	46	5	8	2	186	313	381	694	195	238	34	12	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	23	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	135	113	21	3	2	5	16	46	5	8	2	186	313	381	694	195	238	34	12	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TEX	0%	200	178	37	6	2	5	17	62	3	6	1	210	290	347	636	137	289	31	8	287	80	-5	+1	+0	-2	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	30%	182	162	34	6	2	4	15	56	3	6	1	212	292	351	643	139	289	31	8	289	82	-4	+1	+0	-2	+4	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	44%	274	245	52	9	2	7	23	83	4	10	2	214	293	354	647	141	289	30	8	291	83	-6	+1	+0	-3	+6	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	49%	325	289	62	11	3	8	28	97	5	12	2	214	293	354	647	140	288	30	9	291	83	-7	+2	+0	-3	+7	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	51%	357	319	69	12	3	9	30	106	5	12	3	214	292	352	644	138	287	30	8	290	82	-8	+1	-1	-4	+8	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	30%	55	49	11	2	1	1	5	17	1	2	0	214	293	357	650	144	289	31	9	292	82	-1	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	44%	121	108	23	4	1	3	10	37	2	4	1	215	294	361	655	146	289	31	8	294	83	-2	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	49%	159	142	30	5	1	4	14	48	2	6	1	215	294	360	655	145	288	30	9	294	83	-3	+1	+0	-2	+3	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	51%	184	163	36	6	2	5	16	55	3	6	1	215	294	358	652	143	287	30	9	292	82	-4	+1	-0	-2	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	519	462	100	17	5	13	45	157	8	18	3	216	297	359	656	143	295	30	9	293	83	-11	+2	-0	-6	+11	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	124	21	6	16	56	197	10	23	4	214	295	354	649	140	292	30	9	293	83	-13	+3	-0	-7	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	1379	1222	258	44	13	36	121	421	24	51	11	211	295	357	652	146	287	31	9	290	83	-26	+5	-1	-13	+27	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	122	21	6	17	57	198	11	24	5	212	295	358	653	146	288	30	9	290	83	-14	+3	-0	-7	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.9	625	15	22	214	290	354	-7	-3	0.0	0.0
/162	664	16	23	-7.1	-3.2	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Jolbert Cabrera'98-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	18	38	247*	295*	354*	-3	-9	-1.1	-0.7
/162	664	8	16	-1.4	-4.0	-0.5	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kaden Carpenter (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	208/287/343	135	289	3	3	31%	8%	80	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cam Gibson 2018 · A	24	38→41	44→45	54→55	42	195/251/319	125	261	11	15	30%	7%	59	-1.6	201/266/306	105	279	9	19	29%	7%	62	-1.4	193/264/286	93	270	7	22	29%	7%	55	-1.5
✕J.P. Martínez 2021 · A	25	41→48	44→50	52→65	34	193/248/306	113	326	11	20	42%	6%	55	-1.9	213/289/340	127	328	11	30	35%	9%	79	-0.2	214/299/354	140	315	13	38	33%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Nick Podkul 2022 · AA	25	39	44→50	51→50	46	196/271/312	116	260	11	11	28%	8%	66	-1.1	211/300/351	140	290	16	6	31%	9%	86	+0.3	202/300/344	142	280	17	3	32%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Shay Whitcomb 2023 · AA	24	38→47	48→55	54→55	33	193/241/327	134	304	17	19	41%	5%	58	-1.7	213/267/373	160	286	22	18	33%	6%	78	-0.3	224/284/376	152	283	20	23	28%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Gage Green 2017 · A	24	41	40	46→50	40	203/263/289	87	279	8	10	29%	6%	57	-1.8	202/259/289	87	278	7	8	28%	6%	55	-1.9	167/215/228	61	221	0	0	23%	4%	26	-0.7
✕Billy Cook 2023 · A	24	35→44	48→50	56→55	32	181/235/320	139	288	15	20	42%	5%	54	-2.0	206/266/342	136	290	16	22	33%	6%	71	-0.8	211/276/340	129	293	14	25	32%	7%	72	-0.4
✕Brandon Lockridge 2021 · A	24	41→51	43→45	50→65	37	202/252/319	117	294	10	12	34%	5%	59	-1.6	228/277/351	123	325	13	22	32%	6%	76	-0.4	261/328/345	84	364	3	53	26%	8%	91	+0.4
✕Brian O'Grady 2015 · A	23	39→38	43→60	54→50	46	194/258/307	113	251	9	8	26%	8%	59	-1.6	188/270/299	111	264	10	14	30%	9%	63	-1.4	212/274/402	190	276	23	15	31%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Nick Maton 2021 · AA	24	44→42	41→50	45	45	211/274/308	96	287	8	9	28%	8%	65	-1.2	213/296/338	125	288	11	7	28%	9%	82	-0.0	210/302/353	143	263	16	4	25%	10%	86	+0.2
✕Cade Gotta 2016 · A	24	40→50	41→45	53→55	42	196/255/297	101	272	7	15	30%	7%	56	-1.9	230/275/329	99	292	6	27	22%	6%	70	-0.8	240/299/336	96	305	5	36	21%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Patrick McColl 2022 · A	25	37	44→45	52→50	43	184/269/297	113	288	12	15	38%	9%	63	-1.4	190/261/277	87	306	7	8	37%	8%	54	-2.0	161/231/222	61	267	4	2	38%	8%	28	-1.6
✕Collin Ferguson 2017 · A	24	37→27	48→55	47→45	41	193/261/329	136	270	16	8	34%	7%	66	-1.1	216/276/340	124	307	12	9	32%	7%	74	-0.6	247/299/382	135	336	12	9	28%	6%	91	+0.2
●Matt Mervis 2022 · AAA	24	36→46	45→55	52→45	43	188/257/309	120	261	13	8	32%	8%	60	-1.6	227/295/407	180	284	22	4	27%	8%	97	+1.1	222/295/404	182	277	23	3	28%	8%	94	+0.8
✕Yusuf Carter 2009 · A	24	36→33	48→50	50	34	192/233/334	142	279	16	13	37%	5%	56	-1.9	219/259/358	139	309	17	9	33%	5%	72	-0.7	229/269/371	142	313	18	5	32%	5%	76	-0.3
✕Kyle Petty 2016 · A	25	45→49	42→45	53→50	39	218/262/322	103	301	10	11	30%	5%	63	-1.3	230/288/340	110	327	10	9	31%	7%	78	-0.3	233/296/346	112	333	11	8	31%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Anthony Seratelli 2009 · A	26	39→47	43→45	54→55	41	196/252/312	116	274	11	17	32%	7%	59	-1.7	208/268/290	82	292	6	19	29%	7%	59	-1.7	224/295/340	116	289	12	20	25%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Brenden Webb 2014 · A	24	38→40	43→45	49→50	42	179/265/287	108	305	10	10	41%	9%	59	-1.7	183/240/290	107	295	11	11	39%	6%	49	-2.4	174/223/278	104	273	11	11	39%	5%	37	-2.1
✕Nick Yarnall 2019 · A	24	38	47→50	46→45	41	198/261/329	132	288	16	6	36%	8%	66	-1.1	200/272/336	136	318	15	7	39%	9%	72	-0.7	156/251/306	150	251	16	4	42%	11%	56	-0.7
✕Tyler Massey 2013 · A	24	44→48	40→45	50	39	214/254/306	92	287	8	13	28%	5%	57	-1.8	219/261/325	106	278	10	15	24%	5%	64	-1.3	213/256/315	102	266	9	17	23%	5%	57	-1.3
✕Trey Amburgey 2018 · A	23	40→45	42→50	51→50	37	200/246/305	105	276	10	12	31%	4%	54	-2.0	220/261/355	135	283	15	9	27%	4%	72	-0.7	224/264/367	142	289	15	7	28%	4%	73	-0.5

Kaden Carpenter

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps