Tanner Thach — OGILVIE

Tanner Thach1B Fresno Grizzlies

Age 22 L/L 6'4" / 225 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION389 act + 259 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†105

AVG/OBP/SLG.251 / .315 / .408

PA259

HR8

K%22

BB%6

BABIP296

ISO157

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE48

scouting grade only

SPEED30

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$5M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-2	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.5M
2036	Arb-3	$7M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$23M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	80	71	15	1	0	2	5	28	3	1	0	211	291	310	601	99	310	35	6	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	80	68	19	2	0	2	8	19	3	1	0	279	380	397	777	118	354	24	10	351	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A	COL	—	389	349	95	19	2	11	24	78	11	2	1	272	339	433	771	160	317	20	6	332	112	+5	+0	+0	-7	+11	1.0
YTD	22	A	COL	—	389	337	108	24	2	12	36	58	11	2	1	320	404	510	914	190	353	15	9	400	164	+28	+0	+0	-7	+11	3.3
ROS	22	A	COL	0%	259	235	59	11	1	8	16	56	6	2	1	251	315	408	723	157	299	22	6	323	105	+2	+0	-0	-5	+7	0.4
ROS	22	MLB	COL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		323	—	—	331	111	—	—	-0	-0	—	—
FULL	22	A	COL	—	389	350	95	19	2	11	24	78	11	2	1	271	339	431	770	160	316	20	6	332	112	+5	+0	+0	-7	+11	1.0
TOT	22	A	COL	—	648	584	154	30	3	19	40	134	17	4	2	264	329	423	752	159	309	21	6	328	109	+7	+0	-0	-12	+18	1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	COL	34%	581	527	133	25	3	18	38	126	11	4	1	252	316	414	730	161	298	22	7	322	105	+3	+0	-1	-10	+16	0.9
2028	24	MLB	COL	46%	609	552	140	27	3	19	41	132	11	5	1	254	318	417	735	163	298	22	7	327	108	+6	+1	-1	-11	+17	1.2
2029	25	MLB	COL	52%	627	568	145	27	3	21	43	135	11	5	1	255	320	424	744	169	298	22	7	329	110	+7	+1	-1	-11	+18	1.4
2030	26	MLB	COL	54%	638	577	147	28	3	21	45	138	11	5	1	255	321	423	744	168	298	22	7	330	111	+8	+1	-1	-11	+18	1.5
2031	27	MLB	COL	54%	637	576	147	28	3	21	45	138	11	5	1	255	321	424	745	168	298	22	7	330	111	+8	+1	-1	-11	+18	1.5
2032	28	MLB	COL	54%	629	568	144	27	3	21	45	137	11	5	1	254	321	423	743	169	297	22	7	329	110	+7	+1	-2	-11	+18	1.3
2033	29	MLB	COL	53%	619	558	140	26	3	20	45	136	11	4	1	251	319	416	735	165	296	22	7	327	108	+6	+0	-2	-11	+18	1.1
2034	30	MLB	COL	52%	609	549	137	26	2	20	44	135	11	4	1	250	318	413	731	164	294	22	7	324	106	+4	+0	-3	-11	+17	0.8
2035	31	MLB	COL	52%	598	540	133	25	2	19	43	135	10	4	1	246	314	406	719	159	291	23	7	319	102	+2	+0	-4	-11	+17	0.5
2036	32	MLB	COL	52%	587	529	127	23	2	18	43	135	10	4	1	240	309	393	702	153	287	23	7	313	98	-2	+0	-4	-10	+17	0.1
2037	33	MLB	COL	52%	507	456	108	19	2	15	37	119	9	3	1	237	307	386	693	149	282	23	7	305	92	-5	+0	-5	-9	+14	-0.4
2027	23	MLB	COL	34%	200	181	50	10	1	7	13	43	4	2	0	276	338	459	797	182	321	22	6	333	113	+3	+0	-0	-4	+6	0.5
2028	24	MLB	COL	46%	281	255	70	14	1	10	19	61	5	2	1	275	337	455	792	180	322	22	7	338	117	+5	+0	-0	-5	+8	0.8
2029	25	MLB	COL	52%	324	293	81	16	2	12	22	70	6	2	1	276	340	468	807	191	322	22	7	341	119	+7	+0	-0	-6	+9	1.0
2030	26	MLB	COL	54%	346	313	87	17	2	13	24	75	6	3	1	278	341	470	811	192	322	22	7	343	120	+8	+0	-0	-6	+10	1.2
2031	27	MLB	COL	54%	346	312	86	17	2	13	25	75	6	3	1	276	341	468	809	192	321	22	7	343	120	+8	+0	-0	-6	+10	1.2
2032	28	MLB	COL	54%	341	307	84	16	2	13	25	74	6	3	1	274	340	466	806	192	320	22	7	341	119	+7	+0	-1	-6	+10	1.1
2033	29	MLB	COL	53%	329	296	80	16	1	12	24	72	6	2	1	270	337	453	790	182	319	22	7	339	117	+6	+0	-1	-6	+9	0.9
2034	30	MLB	COL	52%	319	287	77	15	1	12	23	71	6	2	1	268	335	453	788	185	317	22	7	335	115	+5	+0	-2	-6	+9	0.7
2035	31	MLB	COL	52%	311	280	74	14	1	11	23	70	5	2	1	264	331	439	770	175	314	23	7	330	111	+4	+0	-2	-6	+9	0.5
2036	32	MLB	COL	52%	304	274	72	14	1	11	22	70	5	2	1	263	329	442	771	179	310	23	7	324	106	+2	+0	-2	-5	+9	0.3
2037	33	MLB	COL	52%	262	237	60	11	1	9	19	61	4	2	0	253	319	422	741	169	304	23	7	316	100	-0	+0	-3	-5	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3363	3036	821	160	15	123	239	742	59	25	9	270	336	455	790	184	319	22	7	335	115	+56	+1	-12	-60	+95	8.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	159	31	3	24	46	143	11	5	2	271	335	457	792	186	318	22	7	335	115	+11	+0	-2	-12	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	6980	6306	1575	293	30	223	490	1550	126	51	12	250	317	412	728	162	296	22	7	323	105	+43	+5	-25	-125	+198	9.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	147	27	3	21	46	144	12	5	1	250	318	414	732	164	296	22	7	323	105	+4	+1	-2	-12	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	80	68	19	2	0	2	8	19	3	1	0	279	380	397	777	118	354	24	10	351	127	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Travis Leelast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,147 PA	6	3,147	84	34	257	336	412	-36	-3	9.0	9.0
#1Travis Leelast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,147 PA	/162	664	18	7	257	336	412	-7.6	-0.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Jeff Francoeurlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,633 PA	11	5,633	160	54	262	304	417	-60	-26	6.8	9.0
	/162	664	19	6	262	304	417	-7.1	-3.1	0.8	pk7: 11
#3C.J. Cronlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,043 PA	10	4,043	187	10	260	320	471	-72	-46	8.9	8.9
#3C.J. Cronlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,043 PA	/162	664	31	2	260	320	471	-11.9	-7.6	1.5	pk7: 9
#4Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	8	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
	/162	664	31	2	238	315	455	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,529	113	26	250	314	413	-63	-14	5.5	5.1
	/162	664	21	5	250	314	413	-11.9	-2.6	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Jesús Aguilarlast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,594 PA	7	2,594	114	1	255	324	452	-46	-35	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	29	0	255	324	452	-11.9	-9.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Gaby Sanchezlast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,240 PA	5	2,240	59	12	254	332	411	-40	-26	2.2	2.2
	/162	664	17	4	254	332	411	-11.9	-7.8	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tanner Thach (OGILVIE)	22	40	55	30	48	264/329/423	159	309	19	4	21%	6%	109	+1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Daniel Vogelbach 2015 · A	22	44→53	49→60	41→40	48	226/290/372	146	272	17	4	24%	8%	85	+0.7	247/323/400	153	306	17	3	24%	10%	105	+2.1	259/340/443	183	301	24	1	21%	10%	122	+2.9
●Tommy Joseph 2013 · AA	22	43→47	46→60	36→30	39	218/263/346	128	281	15	2	28%	5%	66	-0.6	210/256/330	120	267	14	3	26%	5%	59	-1.1	243/294/446	203	274	28	1	23%	6%	105	+1.6
●Matt Davidson 2013 · AA	22	41→44	48→60	38→30	43	211/281/355	143	279	16	2	30%	7%	77	+0.1	190/257/311	121	277	14	2	35%	7%	56	-1.3	221/293/427	206	292	29	0	34%	7%	99	+1.3
●John Bowker 2006 · A	23	45→55	45→55	37→45	40	224/268/343	119	295	13	4	28%	5%	68	-0.5	243/286/380	137	310	13	5	25%	5%	85	+0.7	262/320/435	173	309	19	6	21%	7%	113	+2.3
✕Sergio Pedroza 2007 · A	23	42→47	56→60	38→45	47	220/314/415	194	293	24	3	32%	10%	107	+2.2	228/302/388	160	306	18	7	30%	8%	95	+1.4	229/300/383	153	297	17	7	27%	7%	90	+0.6
●Travis Ishikawa 2006 · A	22	45→49	53→55	41→45	45	227/302/408	181	315	21	3	33%	9%	99	+1.7	216/278/378	162	301	18	3	33%	7%	82	+0.5	257/320/425	167	309	19	6	23%	8%	107	+1.4
●Allan Dykstra 2011 · A	24	39→49	50→55	38→30	52	201/303/360	159	274	18	2	32%	12%	89	+0.9	222/323/381	159	327	18	3	34%	12%	102	+1.9	228/340/399	171	322	21	1	32%	13%	112	+1.7
●Seth Beer 2019 · A	22	50→45	47→55	44→30	43	250/307/380	130	309	15	5	24%	6%	94	+1.3	237/313/412	175	287	23	3	26%	6%	106	+2.2	214/305/378	164	252	21	0	24%	6%	93	+1.1
✕Beau Mills 2009 · A	22	46→47	50	41→30	41	235/290/390	155	298	17	3	27%	6%	89	+1.0	233/275/373	140	280	15	2	22%	5%	79	+0.3	234/274/374	140	272	16	1	21%	5%	77	+0.1
●Jonathan Rodríguez 2012 · A	22	41→50	50→55	41→50	48	212/293/368	156	263	18	5	26%	8%	85	+0.7	218/285/366	148	299	16	8	31%	7%	81	+0.4	229/307/382	153	312	19	3	31%	9%	93	+1.0
✕Jose C. Valdez 2007 · A	23	43→49	50	38→40	46	225/274/373	149	255	19	4	21%	6%	78	+0.2	220/269/325	105	272	9	6	22%	6%	63	-0.9	222/268/302	81	275	5	5	20%	6%	54	-0.9
✕Kellen Kulbacki 2009 · A	23	47→46	56→60	38→30	50	248/319/434	185	284	25	4	22%	8%	114	+2.7	222/277/341	119	269	13	6	22%	7%	71	-0.3	197/240/273	76	241	5	5	20%	5%	33	-0.7
✕Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg 2010 · A	22	53	45→50	38→45	41	260/304/386	126	314	12	3	21%	4%	94	+1.3	225/268/315	90	296	6	4	25%	5%	59	-1.1	226/269/306	80	292	4	0	23%	4%	54	-0.6
●Ian Stewart 2007 · AA	22	47→52	48→60	40→45	43	230/291/387	157	300	13	4	27%	7%	89	+0.9	240/308/415	175	311	19	8	28%	8%	104	+2.0	239/315/432	193	304	23	9	28%	9%	108	+2.0
✕Jon Waltenbury 2009 · A	21	46→41	46→55	41→40	44	229/281/361	132	288	13	3	25%	6%	78	+0.2	211/261/301	90	288	7	4	27%	6%	53	-1.5	195/245/263	68	268	5	2	28%	6%	33	-2.2
✕Jeff Clement 2006 · A	22	48	49→55	44→30	43	241/294/384	143	310	17	7	28%	7%	89	+1.0	228/294/370	142	278	15	2	23%	7%	86	+0.8	232/304/410	178	275	20	1	23%	8%	98	+1.4
✕Nick Weglarz 2010 · AA	22	43→47	50→55	43→45	52	219/309/374	155	273	17	5	26%	10%	94	+1.3	217/305/375	158	289	17	5	29%	10%	92	+1.2	201/293/358	157	285	18	3	34%	10%	82	+0.2
●Rowdy Tellez 2017 · AA	22	46→50	46→65	44→45	44	230/283/360	130	289	14	5	25%	6%	79	+0.3	225/279/365	140	281	15	6	25%	6%	79	+0.3	239/317/473	234	248	33	1	20%	9%	114	+1.7
✕Drew Ellis 2019 · A	23	40→37	47→55	37→40	46	206/268/342	136	253	15	4	25%	7%	68	-0.5	206/284/361	155	265	18	3	28%	9%	80	+0.4	187/284/370	183	237	21	4	30%	10%	81	+0.3
✕Aaron Baker 2011 · A	23	40→50	49→50	39→40	41	210/267/361	151	265	17	4	28%	6%	72	-0.2	220/272/358	138	296	14	4	29%	6%	73	-0.1	216/267/351	135	293	13	3	29%	6%	68	-0.3