Tanner Thach — OGILVIE

Tanner Thach1B Fresno Grizzlies

Age 22 L/L 6'4" / 225 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION568 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†96

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%20

BB%10

BABIP304

ISO146

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE46

scouting grade only

SPEED30

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	80	68	19	2	0	2	8	19	3	1	0	279	380	397	777	118	354	24	10	351	124	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	80	71	16	1	0	2	5	27	3	1	0	225	304	324	628	99	320	34	6	283	78	-2	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	80	71	16	1	0	2	5	27	3	1	0	225	304	324	628	99	326	34	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	80	68	19	2	0	2	8	19	3	1	0	279	380	397	777	118	354	24	10	351	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	80	72	16	1	0	2	5	27	3	1	0	222	304	319	623	97	320	34	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	80	72	16	1	0	2	5	27	3	1	0	222	304	319	623	97	320	34	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A MLE	COL	—	568	514	129	26	2	15	30	119	16	5	1	251	312	397	709	146	294	21	5	304	92	-6	+1	+0	-10	+12	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A RAW	COL	—	338	292	99	22	2	11	30	47	11	2	1	339	420	541	962	202	368	14	9	418	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ RAW	COL	—	230	207	50	11	0	6	15	40	5	3	0	242	308	382	690	140	268	17	7	307	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A MLE	COL	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		288	20	10	310	96	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	A MLE	COL	—	578	523	130	26	2	15	31	121	16	5	1	249	311	392	702	143	291	21	5	304	92	-6	+1	-0	-10	+13	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	34%	581	531	131	26	2	17	34	122	11	5	1	247	306	399	705	153	287	21	6	315	99	-1	+1	-1	-10	+13	0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	46%	609	555	139	27	2	20	38	127	11	5	1	250	311	414	726	164	289	21	6	320	103	+2	+1	-1	-11	+13	0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	52%	627	571	143	28	2	21	40	130	11	5	1	250	312	417	729	166	289	21	6	324	105	+4	+1	-1	-11	+14	0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	54%	638	579	146	28	2	22	42	133	12	5	1	252	316	421	737	169	289	21	7	326	106	+5	+1	-1	-11	+14	0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	54%	637	578	145	28	2	22	42	133	12	5	1	251	315	420	735	170	288	21	7	326	106	+5	+1	-1	-11	+14	0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	54%	629	571	142	27	2	21	42	132	11	5	1	249	312	413	726	165	288	21	7	324	106	+4	+1	-2	-11	+14	0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	53%	619	561	140	27	2	21	42	131	11	4	1	250	314	417	731	168	287	21	7	322	104	+3	+0	-2	-11	+13	0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	52%	609	552	136	26	2	20	41	131	11	4	1	246	311	409	721	163	285	22	7	319	102	+1	+0	-3	-11	+13	0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	COL	52%	598	542	132	25	2	19	40	130	11	4	1	244	309	402	711	159	282	22	7	314	99	-1	+0	-4	-11	+13	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	COL	34%	200	182	49	10	1	7	12	42	4	2	0	269	328	451	779	181	303	21	6	320	99	-0	+0	-0	-4	+4	0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	46%	281	257	68	14	1	10	17	59	5	2	0	265	323	444	766	179	305	21	6	326	103	+1	+0	-0	-5	+6	0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	52%	324	294	79	16	2	12	21	67	6	3	1	269	330	459	789	190	305	21	6	330	105	+2	+0	-0	-6	+7	0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	54%	346	314	85	17	2	13	23	72	6	3	1	271	332	462	794	191	305	21	7	332	106	+3	+0	-0	-6	+7	0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	54%	346	314	84	17	2	13	23	72	6	3	1	268	329	459	788	191	305	21	7	332	106	+3	+0	-0	-6	+7	0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	54%	341	309	81	16	1	13	23	72	6	3	1	262	325	447	772	184	304	21	7	331	106	+2	+0	-1	-6	+7	0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	53%	329	298	77	15	1	12	22	70	6	2	1	258	322	436	758	178	303	21	7	328	104	+2	+0	-1	-6	+7	0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	52%	319	288	76	15	1	12	22	69	6	2	0	264	329	448	777	184	301	22	7	325	102	+1	+0	-2	-6	+7	0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	COL	52%	311	281	72	14	1	11	21	68	6	2	0	256	321	431	752	174	298	22	7	320	99	-0	+0	-2	-6	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2797	2537	671	134	12	103	184	591	51	22	5	264	327	449	775	184	306	21	7	328	103	+12	+2	-8	-50	+61	1.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	156	31	3	24	43	137	12	5	1	264	328	449	777	185	305	21	7	328	103	+3	+1	-2	-12	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5637	5120	1271	243	18	185	367	1198	104	43	9	248	312	411	723	163	288	21	7	321	103	+23	+5	-15	-99	+120	3.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	146	28	2	21	42	138	12	5	1	247	310	408	719	161	288	21	6	321	103	+3	+1	-2	-12	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#2Jeff Francoeurlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,633 PA	8.5	5,633	160	54	262	304	417	-60	-26	6.8	9.0
/162	664	19	6	-7.1	-3.1	0.8	pk7: 11
#3Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	5.2	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
/162	664	31	2	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#4Jesús Aguilarlast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,594 PA	3.9	2,594	114	1	255	324	452	-46	-35	4.2	4.2
/162	664	29	0	-11.9	-9.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.5	2,963	97	23	249	309	414	-53	-12	4.1	3.9
/162	664	22	5	-11.9	-2.7	0.9	pk7: 4
#5Gaby Sanchezlast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,240 PA	3.4	2,240	59	12	254	332	411	-40	-26	2.2	2.2
/162	664	17	4	-11.9	-7.8	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	3.6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
/162	664	23	2	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tanner Thach (OGILVIE)	22	40	55	30	46	243/303/387	144	288	5	2	21%	6%	96	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tommy Joseph 2013 · AA	22	43→47	46→60	36→30	39	218/262/346	128	276	15	2	27%	5%	70	-0.9	210/255/326	116	264	13	3	25%	4%	63	-1.4	240/291/436	196	274	27	1	23%	6%	100	+1.0
●John Bowker 2006 · A	23	45→54	45→55	37→45	40	224/268/343	119	295	13	4	28%	5%	72	-0.7	243/286/375	132	309	12	5	25%	5%	85	+0.2	262/320/430	168	309	18	6	21%	7%	110	+1.8
●Daniel Vogelbach 2015 · A	22	45→51	48→60	41→40	49	229/295/370	141	276	16	4	23%	8%	88	+0.4	243/322/386	143	302	16	3	23%	10%	101	+1.4	232/335/417	185	271	25	1	24%	13%	111	+1.9
✕Matt Davidson 2013 · AA	22	42→44	48→60	38→30	43	215/283/359	144	283	16	2	29%	7%	81	-0.1	191/257/315	124	275	14	2	34%	7%	61	-1.5	216/288/412	197	287	27	0	34%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Jose C. Valdez 2007 · A	23	43→49	50	38→40	46	225/274/373	149	255	19	4	21%	6%	80	-0.1	220/269/325	105	272	9	6	22%	6%	67	-1.1	222/268/302	81	275	5	5	20%	6%	59	-1.0
✕Jon Waltenbury 2009 · A	21	46→41	46→55	41→40	44	229/281/361	132	288	13	3	25%	6%	80	-0.1	211/261/301	90	288	7	4	27%	6%	59	-1.7	195/245/263	68	268	5	2	28%	6%	40	-2.2
✕Beau Mills 2009 · A	22	46→47	50	41→30	41	235/290/390	155	298	17	3	27%	6%	91	+0.6	231/274/362	131	276	14	2	21%	5%	78	-0.3	230/271/358	128	268	14	1	19%	5%	75	-0.4
✕Aaron Baker 2011 · A	23	40→49	49→50	39→40	41	210/269/358	148	270	16	4	28%	6%	76	-0.4	220/272/363	143	294	15	4	29%	6%	78	-0.3	217/267/358	141	289	15	3	30%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Robbie Tenerowicz 2017 · A	22	44→52	43→50	37→45	38	216/264/328	112	295	10	4	30%	5%	66	-1.1	227/279/334	107	291	10	6	24%	6%	74	-0.6	233/321/379	147	288	17	2	24%	7%	99	+0.8
✕Seth Beer 2019 · A	22	49→46	46→50	44→30	43	246/303/374	128	303	15	5	24%	6%	92	+0.7	236/312/397	161	288	20	3	25%	6%	101	+1.4	215/306/367	152	257	19	0	24%	6%	92	+0.6
✕Rowdy Tellez 2017 · AA	22	47→49	47→60	44→45	45	238/292/374	136	292	15	5	24%	7%	88	+0.4	225/279/360	135	279	14	6	24%	6%	80	-0.2	245/314/456	211	283	28	1	24%	8%	110	+1.2
✕Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg 2010 · A	22	53	45→50	38→45	41	260/304/386	126	314	12	3	21%	4%	95	+0.9	225/269/315	90	295	6	4	25%	5%	65	-1.2	228/273/304	76	292	4	0	22%	5%	60	-0.7
✕Andrew Pullin 2016 · A	22	47→49	42→50	38→40	40	229/268/331	102	281	10	3	22%	4%	68	-1.0	233/271/365	132	286	13	4	23%	4%	77	-0.3	229/268/374	144	281	14	3	23%	4%	75	-0.3
✕Austin Gallagher 2012 · A	23	48→49	44→45	39→30	48	237/296/350	113	290	12	2	22%	8%	83	+0.1	233/302/371	138	296	15	4	25%	9%	91	+0.6	226/300/380	154	284	17	2	26%	9%	88	+0.4
●Travis Ishikawa 2006 · A	22	45→49	53→55	41→45	45	227/302/408	181	315	21	3	33%	9%	99	+1.3	217/278/374	157	300	17	3	32%	7%	83	+0.1	256/319/421	164	308	18	6	22%	8%	105	+1.0
✕Chris Marrero 2010 · AA	22	45→52	49→50	38→30	40	230/281/373	143	297	17	2	28%	6%	84	+0.1	244/291/358	114	308	12	3	24%	6%	83	+0.1	247/295/352	105	307	11	1	22%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Drew Ellis 2019 · A	23	40→37	47→55	37→40	45	205/268/342	138	254	15	4	26%	7%	72	-0.7	205/283/350	145	268	16	3	28%	9%	80	-0.2	183/280/352	170	235	19	4	30%	10%	78	-0.2
✕Christopher Vinyard 2009 · A	23	41→42	46→45	36→30	42	212/267/336	124	277	15	2	29%	6%	70	-0.9	209/265/327	118	283	13	5	30%	7%	67	-1.1	163/219/268	105	210	14	0	30%	7%	34	-0.8
✕Jeff Clement 2006 · A	22	48	49→55	44→30	43	241/294/384	143	310	17	7	28%	7%	91	+0.6	228/294/369	141	279	15	2	23%	7%	88	+0.4	230/302/401	172	274	19	1	23%	8%	96	+0.9
●Jonathan Rodríguez 2012 · A	22	41→51	50	41→50	48	213/299/367	153	274	17	5	28%	9%	89	+0.5	219/288/361	142	301	15	8	31%	8%	84	+0.1	227/303/369	142	310	17	3	30%	9%	90	+0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps