Tanner Thach

1B Fresno Grizzlies

Age 23 L/L 6'4" / 225 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ACOL	80	.279/.380/.397	2	1	75	—	.239/.316/.352
2026	22	A+/ACOL	568	.299/.375/.475	17	5	94	—	.256/.318/.399
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBCOL	552	.232/.289/.369	14	6	85	-0.2
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBCOL	155	.248/.306/.413	5	1	90	-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCOL	244	.251/.309/.423	8	2	93	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

K%84

Whiff%80

Z-Con%75

ISO46

Speed25

wOBA24

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 90%

CompsAndrew Pullin (age 23) · Beau Mills (age 23) · Aaron Baker (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .287 / .365

PA210

HR5

K%23

BB%6

ISO137

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	80	68	19	2	0	2	8	19	3	1	0	279	380	397	777	118	354	24	10	351	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	230	207	50	11	0	6	15	40	5	3	0	242	308	382	690	140	268	17	7	307	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	338	292	99	22	2	11	30	47	11	2	1	339	420	541	962	202	368	14	9	418	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	80	71	17	2	0	2	5	27	3	1	0	239	316	352	669	113	326	34	6	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	230	212	43	9	0	5	10	54	5	3	0	203	256	316	572	113	239	23	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	338	301	88	18	2	9	21	64	11	2	1	292	360	455	816	163	327	19	6	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	80	71	17	2	0	2	5	27	3	1	0	239	316	352	669	113	349	34	6	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	80	68	19	2	0	2	8	19	3	1	0	279	380	397	777	118	354	24	10	351	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	568	513	131	27	2	14	31	118	16	5	1	255	318	398	716	142	301	21	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	568	499	149	33	2	17	45	87	16	5	1	299	375	475	850	176	328	15	8	373	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	80	72	17	2	0	2	5	27	3	1	0	236	316	347	664	111	326	34	6	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	568	516	131	27	2	14	31	118	16	5	1	254	318	395	713	141	291	21	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	80	72	17	2	0	2	5	27	3	1	0	236	316	347	664	111	326	34	6	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	568	516	131	27	2	14	31	118	16	5	1	254	318	395	713	141	291	21	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	0%	552	506	117	23	2	14	31	124	10	6	1	232	289	369	658	137	278	22	6	293	85	-10	+1	-1	-10	+12	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	30%	517	473	112	22	2	15	30	115	9	4	1	236	294	383	677	147	279	22	6	301	90	-6	+0	-1	-9	+11	-0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	44%	552	504	120	23	2	17	33	123	10	4	1	238	297	392	689	154	280	22	6	306	93	-4	+0	-1	-10	+12	-0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	51%	578	527	126	24	2	18	36	129	10	3	1	239	299	397	696	158	281	22	6	309	95	-3	+0	-1	-10	+13	-0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	52%	594	542	129	25	2	18	37	133	10	3	1	238	299	394	694	156	280	22	6	308	94	-4	+0	-1	-11	+13	-0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	53%	585	534	126	24	2	18	37	132	9	2	1	237	298	390	688	153	280	23	6	306	93	-5	+0	-2	-10	+13	-0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	53%	571	521	122	23	2	17	36	131	9	1	1	234	295	383	678	149	278	23	6	301	90	-7	-0	-3	-10	+12	-0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	30%	155	142	36	7	1	5	9	35	3	1	0	248	306	413	718	164	293	23	6	317	90	-2	+0	-0	-3	+3	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	44%	244	223	56	11	1	8	15	54	4	2	0	251	309	423	732	172	294	22	6	323	93	-2	+0	-1	-4	+5	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	51%	293	268	68	13	2	10	18	65	5	2	0	252	311	428	740	176	294	22	6	326	95	-2	+0	-1	-5	+6	-0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	52%	311	283	71	13	2	11	20	70	5	2	0	251	311	426	737	175	294	23	6	325	94	-2	+0	-1	-6	+7	-0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	53%	312	284	71	13	2	11	20	71	5	1	0	249	310	421	730	171	293	23	6	322	93	-3	+0	-1	-6	+7	-0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	53%	300	273	68	13	2	10	19	69	5	1	1	246	306	413	719	167	291	23	6	318	90	-4	-0	-1	-5	+6	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1615	1473	370	70	10	55	101	364	27	9	1	251	311	424	735	173	296	23	6	322	92	-14	+1	-5	-29	+35	-1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	149	28	4	22	41	147	11	4	0	251	312	423	735	172	297	23	6	322	92	-6	+1	-2	-12	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4255	3877	928	179	15	124	257	955	80	25	8	239	300	389	689	150	285	22	6	304	92	-33	+1	-10	-64	+78	-2.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	141	27	2	19	39	146	12	4	1	238	298	387	685	149	283	22	6	304	92	-6	+0	-2	-12	+14	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 338 PAwOBA .413 → .346 (−67)K% 13.9% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.91%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	18.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.88%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	6.12%
HBP% /PA	3.25%	—	×0.780	—	—	2.54%
Singles /BIP	26.12%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.998	—	23.99%
Doubles /BIP	8.98%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.998	—	7.44%
Triples /BIP	0.82%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.998	—	0.74%
Home runs /BIP	4.49%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	3.59%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .413 → .346; ISO .202 → .165; BABIP .368 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Spokane Indians · 230 PAwOBA .301 → .250 (−51)K% 17.4% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.39%	÷1.000	×1.350	—	—	23.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.09%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	4.37%
HBP% /PA	2.17%	—	×0.810	—	×1.012	1.78%
Singles /BIP	19.76%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.995	×1.012	18.11%
Doubles /BIP	6.59%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.995	×1.012	5.51%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.995	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.59%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.012	3.02%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .301 → .250; ISO .140 → .114; BABIP .268 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFresno Grizzlies · 80 PAwOBA .347 → .279 (−67)K% 23.8% → 33.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.75%	÷0.951	×1.360	—	—	33.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.096	×0.690	—	×1.015	6.39%
HBP% /PA	3.75%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	2.97%
Singles /BIP	30.61%	÷1.022	×0.920	×1.028	×1.015	28.76%
Doubles /BIP	4.08%	÷1.055	×0.830	×1.028	×1.015	3.35%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.017	×0.910	×1.028	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.08%	÷0.870	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.81%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 104, 2B 111, 3B 103, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .347 → .279; ISO .118 → .099; BABIP .354 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kevin Young'92-'03 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,351 PA	6.6	4,351	144	83	247*	309*	426*	-69	-12	2.9	4.6
/162	664	22	13	-10.6	-1.9	0.4	pk7: 6
#2Travis Lee'98-'06 * career totals — 8 seasons, 4,233 PA	6.4	4,233	115	59	246*	324*	396*	-74	-10	3.7	4.1
/162	664	18	9	-11.5	-1.6	0.6	pk7: 5
#3Dan Johnson'05-'15 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,625 PA	2.4	1,625	57	1	226*	330*	401*	-30	-3	2.2	2.8
/162	664	23	0	-12.2	-1.2	0.9	pk7: 3
#4Gaby Sanchezlast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,240 PA	3.4	2,240	59	12	254	332	411	-40	-26	2.2	2.2
/162	664	17	4	-11.9	-7.8	0.6	pk7: 2
#5Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	3.6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
/162	664	23	2	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.7	1,825	54	10	237	294	390	-33	-12	0.2	0.3
/162	664	20	4	-11.9	-4.3	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Todd Benzinger'87-'95 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,106 PA	4.7	3,106	66	21	254*	300*	408*	-50	-16	-3.2	-1.7
/162	664	14	4	-10.7	-3.4	-0.7	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tanner Thach (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	230/287/365	136	278	5	2	23%	6%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrew Pullin 2017 · AA	23	50→49	45→50	39→40	40	248/284/369	121	299	13	3	22%	4%	83	+0.1	228/270/369	141	286	13	5	25%	5%	78	-0.3	217/259/368	152	268	14	4	25%	4%	71	-0.4
✕Beau Mills 2010 · AA	23	48→49	47→50	40→30	41	240/281/378	138	293	15	2	24%	5%	84	+0.2	233/277/369	136	274	15	3	21%	5%	81	-0.1	226/273/366	139	262	16	1	20%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Aaron Baker 2011 · A	23	40→49	49→50	39→40	41	208/267/356	147	268	16	4	28%	6%	74	-0.5	219/270/360	141	293	15	4	29%	6%	76	-0.4	215/265/353	139	286	15	3	30%	6%	71	-0.5
✕Jose C. Valdez 2007 · A	23	43→49	50	38→40	46	225/273/373	148	254	19	4	21%	6%	80	-0.1	219/268/323	104	271	9	6	22%	6%	66	-1.1	219/265/299	80	271	4	5	20%	6%	57	-1.1
✕Austin Gallagher 2012 · A	23	48→49	44→45	39→30	48	238/297/351	113	291	12	2	22%	8%	84	+0.1	232/300/369	137	295	14	4	25%	9%	89	+0.5	224/297/375	152	281	17	2	26%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Jeff Clement 2007 · AAA	23	46→49	44→55	39→30	42	229/288/341	112	286	12	4	24%	5%	78	-0.3	239/310/408	169	287	19	2	23%	8%	103	+1.5	238/312/421	183	283	20	1	23%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Seth Beer 2021 · AA	24	47→46	53→55	38→30	41	242/312/410	168	298	22	3	26%	5%	105	+1.7	220/309/361	141	268	15	2	23%	7%	93	+0.8	208/299/335	127	258	13	0	24%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Tyler Neslony 2018 · AA	24	48	39→55	34→55	44	228/283/316	88	294	7	3	24%	6%	70	-0.8	222/269/318	96	296	7	8	26%	6%	65	-1.2	252/308/418	166	323	14	14	25%	7%	99	+0.6
●Tommy Joseph 2014 · AAA	23	43→48	46→60	36→30	39	219/264/342	123	283	14	3	28%	5%	70	-0.9	228/274/374	146	270	18	4	23%	5%	81	-0.1	242/293/442	200	276	27	1	23%	6%	104	+1.2
✕Drew Ellis 2019 · A	23	40→38	47→55	37→40	45	204/267/342	138	254	15	4	26%	7%	72	-0.7	206/284/354	148	268	16	3	28%	9%	81	-0.1	186/283/356	170	238	19	4	29%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Cal Mitchell 2022 · AAA	23	47→54	45→50	40→50	39	234/276/357	123	299	14	6	26%	4%	78	-0.3	242/294/377	135	307	14	11	25%	6%	88	+0.5	236/294/376	140	302	15	12	26%	7%	87	+0.3
●John Bowker 2006 · A	23	45→55	45→55	37→45	40	226/270/346	120	298	13	4	28%	5%	72	-0.7	245/288/378	133	312	13	5	25%	5%	86	+0.3	266/325/436	170	315	19	6	21%	7%	114	+2.0
✕Matt Davidson 2013 · AA	22	44→45	49→60	38→30	44	223/293/375	152	294	17	2	29%	7%	88	+0.5	200/267/335	135	287	15	2	34%	7%	70	-0.8	222/289/413	191	300	26	0	34%	7%	97	+0.8
✕Chris Marrero 2011 · AA	23	51→55	47→55	37→30	42	253/300/387	134	319	15	2	25%	6%	94	+0.9	253/302/368	115	313	12	3	22%	6%	89	+0.5	252/303/360	109	306	11	1	21%	6%	86	+0.2
✕Andy Wilkins 2012 · A	23	43→46	49→55	43→45	45	221/272/363	142	262	17	4	23%	7%	78	-0.3	226/279/383	157	274	19	4	24%	7%	85	+0.2	228/278/395	167	272	20	3	24%	6%	85	+0.2
✕Chris McGuiness 2011 · A	23	46→49	46→50	41→30	51	226/309/353	127	289	13	4	26%	10%	89	+0.5	213/286/333	120	281	13	3	27%	9%	76	-0.4	221/297/360	139	273	14	0	23%	9%	84	+0.2
✕Phillip Cuadrado 2007 · A	23	49→50	48→50	37→40	43	245/301/385	139	297	16	4	23%	5%	94	+0.9	224/282/349	125	290	13	5	26%	6%	78	-0.3	181/247/294	114	235	12	0	28%	6%	50	-0.6
✕Christopher Vinyard 2009 · A	23	41→42	46→45	36→30	42	212/267/336	124	277	15	2	29%	6%	70	-0.9	208/264/326	118	282	13	5	30%	7%	66	-1.1	161/216/265	104	207	14	0	30%	7%	33	-0.8
✕Robbie Tenerowicz 2018 · A	23	46→51	45→50	41→45	41	226/278/352	126	289	12	4	26%	5%	77	-0.3	224/278/321	97	288	8	8	24%	6%	70	-0.9	229/315/373	145	282	17	2	24%	7%	95	+0.7
✕Richard Jones 2012 · A	24	46→49	52→55	38→30	33	236/269/399	163	320	20	2	33%	3%	85	+0.2	217/258/329	112	321	10	4	34%	4%	64	-1.3	182/219/237	56	294	0	0	36%	3%	26	-1.5

Tanner Thach

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps