Mason Nichols

P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	ATB	7	9	0.00	1.81	27.3%	6.1%	—	K 27.3% · BB 6.1% · FIP 1.56
2026	23	MIX2 levels	42	59	5.37	4.19	28.0%	11.9%	—	K 21.0% · BB 13.9% · FIP 5.49
2027PROJ	24	MLBTB	39	41	5.15	5.15	21.3%	13.2%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBTB	22	23	4.98	4.92	21.9%	11.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBTB	33	35	4.88	4.85	22.2%	11.6%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsHarrison Cohen (age 24) · Max Alba (age 24) · Ben Hecht (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%21.3%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	7	0	9	33	9	2	0	0%	1.3	27.3%	6.1%	21.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.56	—
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	7	0	9	33	9	2	0	0%	1.3	27.3%	6.1%	21.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.56	—
2025	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	7	0	9	33	9	2	0	0%	1.3	27.3%	6.1%	21.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.81	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	59	261	73	31	9	0%	1.4	21.0%	13.9%	7.1%	4.4%	5.37	5.49	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	59	261	73	31	9	0%	1.4	21.0%	13.9%	7.1%	4.4%	5.37	5.49	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	59	261	73	31	9	0%	1.4	28.0%	11.9%	16.1%	3.4%	5.37	4.19	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TB	39	0	41	173	37	23	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	13.2%	8.1%	3.3%	5.15	5.15	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	51	0	54	226	49	27	7	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	3.2%	4.98	4.92	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	51	0	54	226	50	26	7	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.6%	10.6%	3.2%	4.88	4.85	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	22	0	23	97	21	12	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	3.2%	4.98	4.92	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	33	0	35	148	33	17	5	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.6%	10.6%	3.2%	4.88	4.85	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	58	246	54	29	8	0%	1.0	22.1%	11.7%	10.3%	3.2%	4.92	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	99	27	0%	1.1	22.1%	11.7%	10.3%	3.2%	4.92	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		49	0	68	294	64	38	11	0%	1.4	21.7%	13.0%	8.6%	3.9%	4.63	5.05	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	0	200	865	187	113	34	0%	1.4	21.7%	13.0%	8.6%	3.9%	4.63	5.05	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Nichols (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	21.3%	13.2%	3.3%	—	4.88	22.0%	10.3%	107	-0.27	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	96
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	94
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	92
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	91
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	90
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	90
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	90
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	89
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	89
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	89
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	89
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Hunter Dula R 2023 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	20.1%	12.1%	3.5%	.301	4.06	19.8%	10.2%	37	-0.80	3.91	132	88
Bryce McGowan R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	24	SU	5.11	19.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.304	3.71	18.8%	6.7%	55	-1.40	3.71	178	88
David Garner R 2017 · 5.19 FIP	24	SU	5.19	21.5%	13.8%	3.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	154	88
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	87
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	21.8%	12.1%	1.26	4.99
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52