Julio Zapata — OGILVIE

Julio Zapata P Lynchburg Hillcats

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 184 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 14 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%20.5%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Blue	19	0	30	119	25	15	0	0%	1.6	14.3%	15.8%	-1.5%	0.0%	1.82	3.89	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Blue	19	0	30	119	25	15	0	0%	1.6	21.0%	12.6%	8.4%	0.0%	1.82	2.93	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Red	12	12	46	212	47	24	3	100%	3.8	15.1%	14.2%	0.9%	0.8%	3.72	4.07	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Guardians Red	12	12	46	212	47	24	3	100%	3.8	22.2%	11.3%	10.8%	1.4%	3.72	3.47	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	10	1	16	76	19	8	2	10%	1.6	17.0%	13.2%	3.8%	3.7%	5.17	5.39	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	10	1	16	76	19	8	2	10%	1.6	17.0%	13.2%	3.8%	3.7%	5.17	5.39	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	10	1	16	76	19	8	2	10%	1.6	25.0%	10.5%	14.5%	2.6%	5.17	3.87	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	31	137	28	11	2	0%	1.4	14.9%	10.5%	4.5%	0.9%	3.52	3.65	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	31	137	28	11	2	0%	1.4	14.9%	10.5%	4.5%	0.9%	3.52	3.65	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	31	137	28	11	2	0%	1.4	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	1.5%	3.52	3.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CLE	13	0	14	59	12	6	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.2%	10.2%	2.9%	4.66	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CLE	27	0	28	118	25	11	3	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.7%	11.5%	2.9%	4.57	4.53	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	CLE	11	0	12	51	11	5	1	0%	1.1	21.2%	9.7%	11.5%	2.9%	4.57	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	50	11	5	1	0%	1.1	21.2%	9.7%	11.5%	2.9%	4.57	4.15	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	84	17	0%	1.1	21.2%	9.7%	11.5%	2.9%	4.57	4.15	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		63	13	122	544	82	73	6	21%	1.9	15.1%	13.4%	1.7%	1.1%	3.39	4.11	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	21	200	892	135	120	10	21%	1.9	15.1%	13.4%	1.7%	1.1%	3.39	4.11	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Zapata (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	20.5%	10.2%	2.9%	—	4.53	21.2%	11.5%	28	-0.13	—	—	—
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	87
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	84
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	84
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	82
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	82
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	82
Brandon Beckel R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	19.4%	10.3%	1.8%	.250	4.23	19.5%	10.5%	147	+0.48	3.75	194	82
Blake Goldsberry R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	16.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.267	4.51	23.6%	13.4%	75	+0.42	3.43	117	81
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	81
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	81
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	80
Zach Day R 2002 · 3.87 FIP	24	SU	3.87	16.3%	8.5%	2.0%	.223	4.47	11.1%	1.8%	295	+0.60	3.87	373	80
Carlo Reyes R 2022 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.318	3.92	24.1%	12.9%	61	-0.14	2.60	229	80
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	80
James McDonald R 2009 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.3%	10.4%	2.1%	.283	4.16	20.4%	11.3%	414	+0.20	2.99	506	80
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	80
Guillermo Moscoso R 2009 · 3.56 FIP	25	SU	3.56	18.8%	9.4%	1.6%	.311	4.33	15.8%	8.5%	178	+0.77	3.56	486	80
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	80
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	80
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	80