Luke Fernandez

P Hill City Howlers

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ALynchburg Hil…	7	11	6.55	3.01	21.6%	13.7%	—	K 16.0% · BB 16.2% · FIP 3.80
2026	22	MIX2 levels	37	70	4.50	4.89	24.7%	18.6%	—	K 18.1% · BB 21.5% · FIP 6.08
2027PROJ	23	MLBCLE	32	34	5.98	5.98	19.4%	19.6%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCLE	27	28	5.61	5.47	20.6%	16.5%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCLE	41	43	5.30	5.15	21.2%	14.5%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsHudson Leach (age 22) · James Acuna (age 23) · Christian Ruebeck (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 130

ERA5.98

FIP5.98

K%19.4%

BB%19.6%

K-BB%-0.2%

Proj IP34

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	11	51	11	7	0	0%	1.6	16.0%	16.2%	-0.2%	0.0%	6.55	3.80	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	11	51	11	7	0	0%	1.6	16.0%	16.2%	-0.2%	0.0%	6.55	3.80	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	11	51	11	7	0	0%	1.6	21.6%	13.7%	7.8%	0.0%	6.55	3.01	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	70	328	81	61	8	0%	1.9	18.1%	21.5%	-3.4%	3.3%	4.50	6.08	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	70	328	81	61	8	0%	1.9	18.1%	21.5%	-3.4%	3.3%	4.50	6.08	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	70	328	81	61	8	0%	1.9	24.7%	18.6%	6.1%	2.4%	4.50	4.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CLE	32	0	34	144	28	28	4	0%	1.1	19.4%	19.6%	-0.2%	3.0%	5.98	5.98	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	62	0	65	273	56	45	8	0%	1.0	20.6%	16.5%	4.0%	3.0%	5.61	5.47	-0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	62	0	65	276	59	40	8	0%	1.1	21.2%	14.5%	6.7%	3.0%	5.30	5.15	-0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	62	0	65	276	59	39	8	0%	1.1	21.5%	14.2%	7.3%	3.0%	5.16	5.09	-0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	61	0	64	272	59	38	8	0%	1.1	21.5%	14.1%	7.4%	3.0%	5.12	5.11	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	27	0	28	118	24	20	4	0%	1.0	20.6%	16.5%	4.0%	3.0%	5.61	5.47	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	41	0	43	182	38	26	5	0%	1.0	21.2%	14.5%	6.7%	3.0%	5.30	5.15	-0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	50	0	52	220	47	31	7	0%	1.0	21.5%	14.2%	7.3%	3.0%	5.16	5.09	-0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	52	0	55	232	50	33	7	0%	1.1	21.5%	14.1%	7.4%	3.0%	5.12	5.11	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	178	750	160	110	22	0%	1.1	21.3%	14.6%	6.7%	3.0%	5.25	4.79	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	124	25	0%	1.1	21.3%	14.6%	6.7%	3.0%	5.25	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		44	0	81	379	67	79	11	0%	1.8	17.8%	20.7%	-2.9%	2.8%	4.78	5.77	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	0	200	936	167	194	26	0%	1.8	17.8%	20.7%	-2.9%	2.8%	4.78	5.77	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Fernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.98	19.4%	19.6%	3.0%	—	5.24	21.1%	6.0%	195	-0.74	—	—	—
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	89
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	88
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	88
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	86
Franklyn German R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.313	5.27	13.1%	0.1%	86	+0.10	3.37	152	85
Willian Suarez R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	20.4%	17.3%	3.0%	.329	5.13	25.4%	9.5%	128	-0.10	3.99	219	85
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	85
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	85
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	84
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	84
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	84
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	84
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	84
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	84
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	83
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	83
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	83
Luis Ledo R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	23	SU	5.51	17.1%	17.6%	3.0%	.329	3.65	20.8%	8.0%	85	-1.86	3.27	376	83
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	59	21.0%	15.4%	1.15	5.38
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*