Matt Donlan — OGILVIE

Matt DonlanC Portland Sea Dogs

Age 26 R/R 6'3" / 213 lbs AA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .287 / .319

PA11

HR0

K%28

BB%7

ISO110

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	22	A	Salem Red Sox	—	32	27	4	1	0	0	3	5	1	0	0	148	258	185	443	37	174	16	9	213	31	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	34	27	6	2	0	0	6	7	1	0	0	222	382	296	679	74	300	21	18	327	107	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	51	41	6	3	0	0	4	13	5	0	0	146	300	220	520	73	207	25	8	256	59	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	32	28	4	1	0	0	2	8	1	0	0	143	226	179	404	36	157	25	6	174	4	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2023	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	34	29	6	2	0	0	4	9	1	0	0	207	324	276	599	69	269	26	12	260	62	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	51	42	5	2	0	0	3	15	5	0	0	119	260	167	427	48	174	29	6	206	26	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	32	28	4	1	0	0	2	8	1	0	0	143	226	179	404	36	190	25	6	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	—	32	27	4	1	0	0	3	5	1	0	0	148	258	185	443	37	174	16	9	213	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	34	29	6	2	0	0	4	9	1	0	0	207	324	276	599	69	300	26	12	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	34	27	6	2	0	0	6	7	1	0	0	222	382	296	679	74	300	21	18	327	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	51	42	5	2	0	0	3	15	5	0	0	119	260	167	427	48	179	29	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	51	41	6	3	0	0	4	13	5	0	0	146	300	220	520	73	207	25	8	256	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	32	29	4	1	0	0	2	8	1	0	0	138	226	172	398	34	157	25	6	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	34	29	6	2	0	0	4	9	1	0	0	207	324	276	599	69	269	26	12	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	51	43	5	2	0	0	3	15	5	0	0	116	260	163	423	47	174	29	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	34	29	6	2	0	0	4	9	1	0	0	207	324	276	599	69	269	26	12	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	51	43	5	2	0	0	3	15	5	0	0	116	260	163	423	47	174	29	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	26	MLB MLE	BOS	2%	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		289	27	9	278	74	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BOS	27%	209	186	41	9	1	4	16	58	5	3	1	220	300	344	644	124	289	28	8	283	78	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	BOS	40%	276	247	54	12	1	5	21	76	6	4	1	219	296	336	632	117	289	28	8	285	79	-7	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	BOS	45%	310	276	60	13	1	6	24	85	7	4	1	217	296	337	633	120	288	27	8	285	79	-8	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.4
2030	30	MLB MLE	BOS	48%	333	297	64	14	1	6	26	92	7	4	1	215	294	330	624	114	287	28	8	283	78	-9	+0	-2	+6	+7	0.3
2031	31	MLB MLE	BOS	49%	320	285	60	13	1	5	25	89	7	3	1	211	290	316	606	105	284	28	8	279	75	-10	+0	-3	+6	+7	0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	BOS	27%	56	51	10	2	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	196	268	294	562	98	295	29	7	269	78	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	BOS	40%	110	99	21	5	0	2	8	30	2	2	1	212	284	323	608	111	295	27	7	272	79	-3	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	BOS	45%	139	124	27	6	1	2	11	38	3	2	1	218	297	331	628	113	294	27	8	272	79	-3	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	BOS	48%	158	142	32	7	1	3	12	44	3	2	1	225	299	352	651	127	293	28	8	271	78	-4	+0	-1	+3	+3	0.1
2031	31	MLB CTX	BOS	49%	157	141	31	7	1	3	12	44	3	2	1	220	295	348	642	128	290	28	8	267	75	-5	+0	-1	+3	+3	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	620	557	121	27	3	11	47	172	12	9	4	217	292	336	628	118	291	28	8	270	74	-17	+0	-3	+11	+13	0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	127	28	3	12	49	180	13	9	4	217	293	337	630	120	290	28	8	270	74	-17	+0	-3	+12	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	1576	1400	295	66	5	26	122	435	39	18	5	211	292	321	613	110	283	28	8	278	74	-39	+2	-7	+26	+32	1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	122	27	2	11	50	179	16	7	2	211	292	322	614	111	284	28	8	278	74	-17	+1	-3	+12	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.9	623	11	8	216	291	331	+11	+8	1.1	1.1
/162	664	12	8	+11.9	+8.5	1.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Donlan (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	211/287/319	109	289	2	2	28%	7%	74	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sean Jamieson 2015 · AA	26	48→45	43→45	47→50	44	232/288/348	117	297	9	10	24%	6%	80	-0.2	225/285/316	91	320	7	9	30%	7%	72	-0.7	213/281/284	71	318	5	8	32%	7%	60	-0.7
✕Nick Fortes 2022 · MLB	25	44	45	47→45	46	218/283/336	118	254	13	7	20%	6%	76	-0.4	225/285/348	123	255	14	8	18%	6%	79	-0.2	234/282/335	101	263	9	1	14%	4%	73	-0.3
✕Steve Holm 2006 · AA	26	42	42→50	47→40	43	209/269/311	102	266	11	6	25%	6%	65	-1.2	226/294/371	145	273	17	4	23%	7%	88	+0.5	229/305/377	149	268	17	2	21%	8%	90	+0.3
✕Wynston Sawyer 2018 · AA	26	47	42→45	43→45	46	227/297/339	112	292	9	6	25%	8%	82	-0.0	220/290/322	102	300	8	5	28%	6%	75	-0.5	203/282/292	88	285	6	0	28%	6%	63	-0.3
✕Ali Sánchez 2023 · AAA	26	48	41→45	44→40	44	232/287/325	93	314	9	5	28%	7%	74	-0.6	225/277/332	107	291	11	5	25%	6%	72	-0.7	217/266/315	98	276	11	2	25%	6%	61	-0.6
✕Andruw Monasterio 2023 · AAA	26	48→54	43→45	48→55	45	231/296/344	113	313	10	13	28%	8%	82	+0.0	238/313/340	102	311	9	19	24%	9%	88	+0.4	240/320/337	97	310	8	23	24%	9%	88	+0.3
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA	26	40	43→45	47→30	45	202/266/307	106	274	11	4	30%	8%	63	-1.4	220/287/341	121	307	13	4	31%	8%	78	-0.3	213/285/332	119	296	14	1	31%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA	27	42	44→45	43→40	43	210/274/328	118	283	11	5	29%	7%	70	-0.8	219/287/362	143	261	15	6	21%	8%	83	+0.1	203/270/374	171	212	20	2	16%	7%	76	-0.2
✕William Simoneit 2023 · AAA	26	48	44→45	46→45	47	227/307/346	119	317	11	6	30%	9%	87	+0.4	200/271/315	115	312	11	7	37%	7%	67	-1.1	179/246/286	108	288	11	3	39%	6%	49	-0.9
✕Lucas May 2011 · MLB	26	45→43	47→55	45	41	224/277/359	135	291	14	6	28%	6%	78	-0.3	199/246/315	116	272	11	6	30%	5%	57	-1.8	175/218/272	98	243	9	3	31%	5%	34	-1.5
✕Ryan Ortiz 2014 · AAA	26	40	43→45	45→40	47	199/279/309	110	267	11	4	28%	9%	69	-0.9	206/297/296	90	292	7	5	29%	10%	73	-0.6	185/301/243	58	270	3	0	28%	13%	59	-0.8
✕Daniel Sanchez 2019 · AAA	26	46	44→45	46→30	39	228/267/338	111	289	12	8	26%	4%	70	-0.9	237/301/360	123	283	13	7	20%	6%	88	+0.4	240/308/345	106	279	11	0	18%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Andrew Knizner 2022 · MLB	27	43	43→50	48→40	51	213/294/325	112	254	11	6	21%	8%	78	-0.3	220/289/340	120	271	13	4	23%	7%	79	-0.2	227/296/347	120	278	14	3	22%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Grayson Greiner 2019 · MLB	26	45	43→45	43→30	46	218/282/328	111	286	10	3	27%	8%	73	-0.6	205/268/319	114	293	12	4	32%	7%	66	-1.1	184/247/277	93	298	11	1	40%	7%	47	-1.0
✕Zack Short 2021 · AAA	26	41→39	46→50	47→45	47	202/290/335	132	294	13	8	33%	10%	78	-0.3	190/285/318	128	262	14	9	31%	11%	74	-0.6	177/277/301	125	240	14	9	31%	11%	65	-0.9
✕Cole Tucker 2022 · MLB	26	44→47	43→45	50→55	47	213/281/328	114	278	10	13	26%	8%	73	-0.6	206/275/298	92	297	8	12	31%	9%	63	-1.3	196/269/270	74	291	5	11	32%	9%	53	-1.0
✕Choo Freeman 2006 · MLB	26	47→49	44→45	48→45	43	232/281/349	117	295	11	7	25%	6%	77	-0.3	232/288/341	109	302	10	9	25%	7%	78	-0.3	230/290/327	97	301	8	8	25%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Dan Butler 2013 · AAA	26	43→39	43→45	47→40	47	213/282/327	114	260	10	3	22%	7%	74	-0.6	208/271/316	108	262	9	3	23%	7%	66	-1.1	212/282/298	86	268	7	0	22%	8%	64	-0.5
✕Dusty Brown 2008 · AAA	26	42	44→45	45→30	43	212/265/329	117	275	11	3	27%	6%	67	-1.1	222/283/330	108	300	10	3	28%	7%	74	-0.6	189/261/325	136	237	14	2	26%	8%	65	-0.5
✕Dante Bichette Jr. 2019 · AA	26	48→47	41→45	46→40	49	233/296/333	100	291	9	5	23%	8%	79	-0.2	237/282/331	94	288	6	8	19%	6%	73	-0.6	252/290/332	80	301	3	5	17%	4%	72	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps