Matt Donlan — OGILVIE

Matt DonlanC Portland Sea Dogs

Age 26 R/R 6'3" / 213 lbs AA H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†70

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .286 / .317

PA136

HR2

K%29

BB%7

ISO108

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	22	A	Salem Red Sox	—	32	28	4	1	0	0	2	8	1	0	0	143	226	179	404	36	190	25	6	172	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	Salem Red Sox	—	32	27	4	1	0	0	3	5	1	0	0	148	258	185	443	37	174	16	9	213	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	34	29	5	1	0	0	4	9	1	0	0	172	294	207	501	34	250	26	12	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	34	27	6	2	0	0	6	7	1	0	0	222	382	296	679	74	300	21	18	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	51	42	5	2	0	0	3	16	5	0	0	119	260	167	427	48	185	31	6	197	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	51	41	6	3	0	0	4	13	5	0	0	146	300	220	520	73	207	25	8	256	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	BOS	—	136	122	26	6	1	2	10	39	3	2	1	213	289	328	617	115	289	29	7	277	70	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	BOS	27%	209	186	41	9	1	4	16	59	5	3	1	220	300	344	644	124	289	28	8	281	74	-6	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.4
2028	28	MLB	BOS	40%	276	247	53	11	1	5	21	77	6	4	1	215	292	328	620	113	289	28	8	284	75	-8	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.5
2029	29	MLB	BOS	45%	310	276	60	13	1	6	24	86	7	4	1	217	296	337	633	120	288	28	8	284	75	-9	+0	-1	+6	+9	0.5
2027	27	MLB	BOS	27%	56	51	10	2	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	196	268	294	562	98	296	29	7	269	64	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	28	MLB	BOS	40%	110	99	22	5	0	2	8	31	2	2	1	222	294	333	627	111	296	28	7	272	66	-4	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	29	MLB	BOS	45%	139	124	28	6	1	3	11	39	3	2	1	226	304	363	667	137	295	28	8	273	67	-5	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	305	274	60	13	1	6	23	86	6	5	2	219	294	339	633	120	293	28	8	272	66	-12	+0	-1	+5	+9	0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	128	28	2	13	49	183	13	11	4	219	294	341	635	122	293	28	8	272	66	-25	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	1048	930	194	43	4	17	80	294	28	13	4	209	291	318	609	110	283	28	8	274	68	-38	+1	-2	+19	+30	0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	121	27	2	11	50	182	17	8	2	210	292	321	613	111	284	28	8	274	68	-24	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	22	A	Salem Red Sox	—	32	27	4	1	3	5	1	148	258	185	443	37	174	16	9	213	21	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	34	27	6	2	6	7	1	222	382	296	679	74	300	21	18	327	108	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	51	41	6	3	4	13	5	146	300	220	520	73	207	25	8	256	54	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	308	5	4	217	291	332	+5	+4	0.5	0.5
	/162	664	12	9	217	291	332	+11.9	+8.6	1.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Donlan (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	210/286/317	107	289	2	2	29%	7%	70	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sean Jamieson 2015 · AA	26	47→43	43→45	47→50	42	228/282/347	119	293	10	10	25%	6%	74	-0.1	220/279/312	92	319	7	9	31%	6%	64	-0.8	205/272/275	71	312	6	8	34%	7%	48	-0.8
✕Nick Fortes 2022 · MLB	25	44	46→45	47→45	46	220/285/349	129	256	15	7	20%	6%	77	+0.1	226/286/352	126	257	15	8	18%	6%	78	+0.2	233/280/331	98	262	9	1	14%	4%	68	-0.2
✕Steve Holm 2006 · AA	26	42	42→50	47→40	43	209/268/311	102	266	11	6	25%	6%	59	-1.1	226/294/375	149	273	18	4	24%	7%	88	+0.9	229/306/383	154	269	18	2	22%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Wynston Sawyer 2018 · AA	26	46	41→45	43→45	46	220/292/326	105	290	8	6	26%	8%	73	-0.1	217/286/321	104	298	8	5	28%	6%	70	-0.3	203/278/298	95	282	8	0	29%	6%	58	-0.3
✕Ali Sánchez 2023 · AAA	26	48	42→45	44→40	43	231/285/330	99	310	10	5	28%	7%	71	-0.3	223/273/332	109	288	12	5	26%	6%	66	-0.6	216/263/315	99	275	11	2	25%	6%	55	-0.6
✕Cole Tucker 2022 · MLB	26	43→46	43→45	51→55	46	214/278/332	118	279	10	13	27%	8%	69	-0.4	202/271/294	92	295	8	12	31%	9%	56	-1.3	189/265/262	73	285	5	11	33%	9%	44	-1.0
✕Andrew Knizner 2022 · MLB	27	43	43→50	48→40	50	212/293/324	112	254	11	6	21%	8%	75	-0.0	218/287/334	116	270	13	4	23%	7%	74	-0.1	218/299/361	142	257	17	2	22%	7%	83	+0.2
✕Grayson Greiner 2019 · MLB	26	44	43→45	43→30	46	217/280/332	115	287	11	3	28%	8%	70	-0.3	208/270/328	120	295	14	4	32%	7%	66	-0.6	188/250/287	99	300	12	1	39%	7%	43	-0.8
✕Choo Freeman 2006 · MLB	26	47→49	44→45	48→45	43	232/280/348	116	295	11	7	25%	6%	73	-0.1	232/286/340	108	301	10	9	25%	7%	74	-0.1	230/290/327	97	301	8	8	25%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Chris Mariscal 2019 · AA	26	49	42→45	47→45	41	232/289/334	102	326	9	6	30%	6%	73	-0.1	216/272/337	121	297	14	6	31%	6%	68	-0.5	189/246/316	126	246	19	2	31%	6%	49	-1.1
✕Paul Gran 2012 · AA	26	47	43→45	50	41	225/289/348	123	312	10	9	29%	6%	79	+0.3	207/279/314	107	302	8	9	32%	6%	66	-0.6	194/276/284	91	289	8	10	33%	6%	57	-0.9
✕Dusty Brown 2008 · AAA	26	42	45	45→30	42	212/265/335	123	277	13	3	28%	6%	64	-0.8	224/285/342	118	301	12	3	28%	7%	75	-0.0	197/270/356	159	242	17	2	26%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA	26	39	43→45	44→45	46	197/280/304	107	271	12	5	30%	8%	64	-0.8	229/320/373	144	297	15	10	26%	11%	98	+1.6	224/323/376	152	290	16	11	26%	12%	98	+0.8
✕Nevin Ashley 2011 · AAA	26	44→51	40→45	46→45	42	210/279/300	90	290	7	7	29%	7%	61	-1.0	228/294/344	116	298	11	6	26%	6%	79	+0.3	229/298/348	120	295	11	4	25%	7%	79	+0.1
✕Ryan Ortiz 2014 · AAA	26	40	43→45	45→40	47	198/279/307	110	268	11	4	29%	9%	64	-0.8	208/301/298	90	295	7	5	29%	11%	71	-0.3	189/310/248	58	279	3	0	28%	13%	59	-0.5
✕J.E. Cruz 2007 · AA	26	45→48	41→45	51→45	46	214/283/314	100	288	7	8	27%	8%	66	-0.6	208/279/310	102	281	7	8	27%	7%	64	-0.8	180/259/282	102	241	7	7	27%	7%	49	-1.0
✕Dante Bichette Jr. 2019 · AA	26	48→49	43→45	46→40	48	233/296/340	107	294	10	5	24%	8%	79	+0.3	236/281/330	94	289	7	8	20%	5%	69	-0.4	251/287/329	78	303	3	5	18%	4%	66	-0.3
✕Stevie Berman 2022 · AA	27	41	42→50	49→40	49	203/284/306	102	254	10	6	23%	8%	66	-0.6	210/295/336	126	275	13	5	27%	9%	79	+0.3	195/291/323	129	254	15	1	28%	10%	72	-0.1
✕Hunter Brown 2006 · AAA	26	47→45	43→45	47→50	43	230/290/349	119	294	10	11	24%	6%	79	+0.3	223/288/338	115	294	9	13	26%	8%	75	-0.0	213/286/320	107	284	7	14	26%	9%	66	-0.5
✕Alex De Goti 2022 · AAA	27	43→47	43→45	51→50	44	212/275/327	115	284	10	8	28%	7%	66	-0.6	204/281/300	96	277	8	10	27%	9%	63	-0.9	195/278/275	80	264	6	10	26%	9%	52	-0.9