Matt Donlan — OGILVIE

Matt DonlanC Portland Sea Dogs

Age 26 R/R 6'3" / 213 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2028

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .283 / .335

PA136

HR3

K%28

BB%7

MLB%2%

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2029

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$7M		$3M	-$4M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	22	A	Salem Red Sox	32	28	4	1	0	0	2	7	1	0	0	.143	.226	.179	.404	.036	.182	22	6	.175	-8	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
2023	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	34	29	6	2	0	0	4	9	1	0	0	.207	.324	.276	.599	.069	.300	26	12	.261	58	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2024	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	51	42	5	2	0	0	3	16	5	0	0	.119	.260	.167	.427	.048	.185	31	6	.206	16	-5	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	BOS	136	123	27	5	1	3	10	38	2	3	1	.220	.289	.350	.638	.130	.289	28	7	.281	73	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	27	MLB 11%	BOS	209	188	41	8	1	4	16	58	3	4	1	.218	.290	.335	.625	.117	.290	28	8	.285	76	-6	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.5
2028	28	MLB 22%	BOS	276	249	56	11	2	6	21	76	4	5	1	.225	.296	.357	.653	.133	.290	28	8	.287	78	-7	+1	-1	+5	+8	0.6
2029	29	MLB 34%	BOS	310	279	62	12	2	7	24	86	4	5	1	.222	.293	.355	.648	.133	.289	28	8	.287	78	-8	+1	-1	+6	+9	0.6
2030	30	MLB 44%	BOS	333	299	66	13	2	7	26	93	5	4	1	.221	.294	.348	.642	.127	.288	28	8	.285	76	-9	+0	-2	+6	+9	0.5
2031	31	MLB 53%	BOS	320	288	63	12	2	7	25	91	4	3	0	.219	.290	.347	.637	.128	.286	28	8	.281	73	-10	+1	-3	+6	+9	0.3
2032	32	MLB 64%	BOS	300	270	57	11	1	6	23	86	4	1	0	.211	.283	.326	.609	.115	.285	29	8	.276	70	-10	+0	-4	+5	+8	0.0
2033	33	MLB 74%	BOS	268	243	51	10	1	5	20	79	3	0	0	.210	.278	.321	.599	.111	.283	29	7	.271	65	-10	+0	-4	+5	+8	-0.2
2034	34	MLB 91%	BOS	224	202	42	8	1	4	17	68	3	0	0	.208	.279	.317	.596	.109	.282	30	8	.265	61	-10	+0	-5	+4	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			2493	2240	480	95	13	49	191	707	39	25	5	.214	.287	.334	.621	.120	.288	28	8	.277	70	-84	+3	-20	+45	+71	1.5
/ 162G	—			650	584	125	25	3	13	50	184	10	7	1	.214	.287	.334	.621	.120	.286	28	8	.277	70	-22	+1	-5	+12	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	22	A	Salem Red Sox	32	27	4	1	3	5	1	.148	.258	.185	.443	.037	.174	16	9	.213	21	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	34	27	6	2	6	7	1	.222	.382	.296	.679	.074	.300	21	18	.327	108	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	51	41	6	3	4	13	5	.146	.300	.220	.520	.073	.207	25	8	.256	54	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Donlan (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	.215/.283/.335	.120	.289	3	3	28%	7%	73	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sean Jamieson 2015 · AA	26	47→46	43→45	48→50	44	.228/.288/.348	.120	.291	10	10	25%	7%	77	+0.1	.225/.285/.323	.098	.319	8	9	30%	7%	69	-0.4	.210/.277/.287	.076	.316	6	8	33%	7%	53	-0.7
✕Coco Montes 2023 · AAA	26	41→45	48→50	50	40	.208/.269/.350	.142	.293	15	10	33%	7%	70	-0.3	.222/.287/.357	.135	.316	14	10	32%	7%	79	+0.3	.221/.286/.344	.123	.313	13	9	32%	7%	73	-0.1
✕Nick Fortes 2022 · MLB	25	43	45	47→45	45	.214/.278/.334	.119	.252	13	7	21%	6%	70	-0.3	.223/.283/.346	.123	.253	15	8	18%	6%	76	+0.0	.217/.272/.326	.109	.242	13	6	16%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Steve Holm 2006 · AA	26	42	43→50	47→40	43	.208/.266/.315	.106	.263	11	7	25%	6%	59	-1.1	.225/.292/.374	.149	.273	18	4	24%	7%	86	+0.8	.231/.308/.383	.152	.272	18	2	22%	8%	92	+0.5
✕Maverick Handley 2023 · AA	25	40	45	51→50	44	.199/.282/.323	.124	.278	13	13	32%	8%	70	-0.3	.204/.293/.301	.097	.284	9	11	29%	9%	69	-0.4	.196/.289/.271	.075	.275	6	10	28%	9%	57	-0.6
✕Davis Stoneburner 2011 · AA	26	46→48	45	50	41	.228/.278/.354	.126	.287	12	11	25%	5%	75	-0.0	.217/.272/.324	.107	.284	8	14	25%	6%	64	-0.8	.204/.261/.294	.090	.271	5	16	25%	5%	48	-1.3
✕David Sheaffer 2021 · AAA	26	41	47→55	50→40	38	.209/.254/.341	.132	.283	15	6	32%	5%	61	-1.0	.202/.249/.301	.099	.291	9	5	32%	5%	48	-1.9	.174/.220/.258	.084	.252	7	1	32%	5%	24	-1.0
✕Drew Jackson 2019 · AA	26	42→45	44→45	50→55	43	.210/.281/.323	.113	.279	11	17	28%	7%	69	-0.4	.198/.276/.314	.116	.288	12	20	33%	8%	65	-0.7	.181/.268/.277	.096	.287	10	25	37%	9%	49	-0.8
✕Stevie Berman 2022 · AA	27	42	43→50	49→40	48	.208/.284/.316	.108	.260	11	7	24%	8%	69	-0.4	.206/.292/.328	.122	.270	13	5	27%	9%	76	+0.0	.190/.289/.313	.123	.250	14	1	28%	10%	69	-0.1
✕Vinny Capra 2022 · AA	26	46→48	45	51→50	41	.227/.282/.352	.125	.308	12	11	29%	6%	76	+0.0	.245/.309/.362	.117	.309	11	10	23%	8%	90	+1.0	.239/.308/.330	.092	.293	8	11	20%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Wynston Sawyer 2018 · AA	26	46	42→45	45	46	.223/.294/.332	.110	.289	9	7	25%	8%	76	+0.1	.221/.292/.327	.106	.299	9	5	27%	7%	74	-0.1	.206/.283/.301	.095	.286	7	0	28%	6%	61	-0.2
✕Scott Kingery 2021 · MLB	27	46→51	48→55	51→55	42	.229/.284/.378	.149	.296	15	13	28%	6%	83	+0.6	.203/.272/.331	.128	.300	12	18	34%	8%	66	-0.6	.201/.259/.337	.136	.285	17	26	34%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Hunter Stovall 2023 · AA	26	50→49	42→45	51→50	43	.240/.289/.350	.110	.317	9	16	27%	6%	78	+0.2	.227/.274/.322	.095	.279	9	15	21%	6%	64	-0.8	.218/.266/.302	.084	.259	9	16	19%	6%	52	-1.0
✕Zack Short 2021 · AAA	26	40→39	47→50	46→45	46	.199/.287/.342	.143	.292	15	7	35%	10%	76	+0.1	.191/.286/.326	.135	.262	15	9	31%	11%	72	-0.2	.179/.279/.311	.132	.240	16	9	31%	11%	63	-0.6
✕Mike Ahmed 2018 · AAA	26	44→46	45→50	46→50	44	.216/.285/.341	.124	.300	13	11	31%	8%	74	-0.1	.205/.263/.320	.115	.324	12	8	38%	6%	59	-1.1	.187/.242/.291	.104	.306	10	6	40%	5%	41	-1.0
✕Chuckie Robinson 2022 · AA	27	40→50	45	47→45	40	.204/.266/.319	.115	.281	13	8	31%	6%	61	-1.0	.228/.277/.351	.123	.290	14	7	26%	5%	74	-0.1	.227/.276/.326	.099	.301	12	4	27%	5%	64	-0.4
✕Kyle Datres 2022 · A	26	39→43	48→50	53→55	45	.201/.280/.343	.142	.268	15	18	30%	8%	74	-0.1	.215/.294/.359	.144	.298	18	23	32%	8%	84	+0.6	.206/.288/.349	.143	.285	19	26	33%	8%	76	+0.1
✕Ryan Cordell 2018 · AAA	26	41	50→55	51→50	40	.216/.263/.367	.151	.276	18	14	29%	5%	72	-0.2	.207/.256/.332	.125	.280	13	12	30%	6%	59	-1.1	.182/.237/.307	.125	.258	16	13	35%	6%	44	-0.9
✕Jimmy Govern 2023 · AAA	26	41	47→50	49→45	39	.209/.253/.345	.135	.257	15	9	25%	4%	62	-0.9	.207/.258/.322	.115	.261	12	9	25%	5%	58	-1.2	.188/.244/.279	.091	.234	10	6	24%	4%	38	-1.0
✕Carson Blair 2016 · MLB	26	43	47→50	48→30	41	.203/.276/.342	.140	.328	14	3	40%	9%	72	-0.2	.201/.270/.322	.121	.337	13	5	41%	8%	64	-0.8	.173/.246/.277	.104	.300	13	2	44%	7%	39	-0.6

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)