Gary Gill Hill

P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 160 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.9 · 2030

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP46ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ATB	22	21	109	3.15	2.99	24.2%	6.2%	—	K 17.9% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.32
2025	20	A+TB	25	25	137	3.82	3.81	18.8%	5.3%	—	K 14.5% · BB 6.1% · FIP 4.85
2026	21	MIX3 levels	26	26	140	4.25	3.69	20.1%	4.9%	—	K 16.2% · BB 5.5% · FIP 4.53
2027PROJ	22	MLBNYM	31	31	160	4.64	4.64	15.7%	5.0%	0.5
2028PROJ50% MLB	23	MLBNYM	16	16	83	4.48	4.40	18.0%	5.0%	0.5
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBNYM	21	21	119	4.34	4.25	19.4%	5.0%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$5M2033Arb-2$8M2034Arb-3$9M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control55Command57FB velo44

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 18, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 77%

CompsAustin Coley (age 23) · Aaron Shortridge (age 22) · Michael McGreevy (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%15.7%

BB%5.0%

K-BB%10.7%

Proj IP160

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 160 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$34M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL6055

CMD5060

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$8M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+1.3	$7M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$8M	+1.1	$6M	+$1M
2034	Arb-3	$9M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$15M		$34M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	41	191	39	19	3	86%	2.9	14.1%	12.2%	1.9%	2.6%	5.49	4.91	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	12	41	191	39	19	3	86%	2.9	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	1.6%	5.49	3.54	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	22	21	109	433	105	27	9	95%	4.9	17.9%	7.4%	10.6%	3.3%	3.15	4.32	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	22	21	109	433	105	27	9	95%	4.9	17.9%	7.4%	10.6%	3.3%	3.15	4.32	—
2024	19	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	22	21	109	433	105	27	9	95%	4.9	24.2%	6.2%	18.0%	2.1%	3.15	2.99	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	137	569	107	30	17	100%	5.5	14.5%	6.1%	8.4%	4.0%	3.82	4.85	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	137	569	107	30	17	100%	5.5	14.5%	6.1%	8.4%	4.0%	3.82	4.85	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	137	569	107	30	17	100%	5.5	18.8%	5.3%	13.5%	3.0%	3.82	3.81	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	140	592	119	29	18	100%	5.4	16.2%	5.5%	10.7%	3.8%	4.25	4.53	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	140	592	119	29	18	100%	5.4	16.2%	5.5%	10.7%	3.8%	4.25	4.53	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	140	592	119	29	18	100%	5.4	20.1%	4.9%	15.2%	3.0%	4.25	3.69	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	NYM	31	31	160	676	106	34	23	100%	5.2	15.7%	5.0%	10.7%	3.4%	4.64	4.64	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	31	31	166	700	126	35	23	100%	5.3	18.0%	5.0%	13.0%	3.3%	4.48	4.40	+1.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYM	30	30	170	717	139	35	23	100%	5.7	19.4%	5.0%	14.4%	3.2%	4.34	4.25	+1.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	172	726	147	36	23	100%	5.9	20.2%	5.0%	15.2%	3.2%	4.24	4.17	+1.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	172	726	150	36	23	100%	5.9	20.6%	5.0%	15.7%	3.2%	4.18	4.13	+1.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYM	28	28	169	715	147	36	23	100%	6.0	20.6%	5.1%	15.6%	3.3%	4.17	4.17	+1.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYM	27	27	164	693	142	36	23	100%	6.1	20.5%	5.2%	15.3%	3.4%	4.22	4.26	+1.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	157	662	134	36	23	100%	6.0	20.3%	5.5%	14.8%	3.5%	4.32	4.39	+0.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYM	25	25	147	622	124	36	23	100%	5.9	19.9%	5.8%	14.2%	3.7%	4.47	4.56	+0.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	NYM	23	23	138	581	113	35	23	100%	6.0	19.5%	6.1%	13.4%	3.9%	4.65	4.77	+0.2
2037	32	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	127	537	102	35	22	100%	6.1	19.1%	6.5%	12.6%	4.2%	4.86	4.99	-0.1
2038	33	MLB MLE	NYM	19	19	117	493	92	34	22	100%	6.1	18.6%	7.0%	11.6%	4.5%	5.09	5.24	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	83	350	63	17	12	100%	5.2	18.0%	5.0%	13.0%	3.3%	4.48	4.40	+0.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYM	21	21	119	502	97	25	16	100%	5.7	19.4%	5.0%	14.4%	3.2%	4.34	4.25	+0.9
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYM	24	24	140	591	119	29	19	100%	5.8	20.2%	5.0%	15.2%	3.2%	4.24	4.17	+1.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYM	25	25	150	633	131	32	20	100%	6.0	20.6%	5.0%	15.7%	3.2%	4.18	4.13	+1.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYM	26	26	153	646	133	33	21	100%	5.9	20.6%	5.1%	15.6%	3.3%	4.17	4.17	+1.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYM	25	25	151	638	131	33	21	100%	6.0	20.5%	5.2%	15.3%	3.4%	4.22	4.26	+1.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYM	24	24	146	616	125	34	22	100%	6.1	20.3%	5.5%	14.8%	3.5%	4.32	4.39	+0.9
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYM	23	23	138	583	116	34	22	100%	6.0	19.9%	5.8%	14.2%	3.7%	4.46	4.55	+0.5
2036	31	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	131	553	108	34	22	100%	6.0	19.5%	6.1%	13.4%	3.9%	4.64	4.76	+0.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	121	511	97	33	21	100%	6.0	19.1%	6.5%	12.6%	4.2%	4.85	4.98	-0.1
2038	33	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	111	469	87	33	21	100%	6.2	18.6%	7.0%	11.6%	4.5%	5.08	5.23	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		244	244	1444	6095	1209	336	217	100%	5.9	19.8%	5.5%	14.3%	3.6%	4.43	4.08	+14.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	168	47	30	100%	5.9	19.8%	5.5%	14.3%	3.6%	4.43	4.08	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		87	84	426	1785	283	122	65	97%	4.9	15.8%	6.8%	9.0%	3.6%	3.95	4.62	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	39	200	838	133	57	30	97%	4.9	15.8%	6.8%	9.0%	3.6%	3.95	4.62	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gary Gill Hill (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	15.7%	5.0%	3.4%	—	4.27	19.2%	14.2%	507	-0.37	—	—	—
Austin Coley R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	13.4%	4.8%	3.4%	.282	4.28	13.1%	5.7%	334	-0.14	3.58	506	89
Aaron Shortridge R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	14.7%	5.3%	2.8%	.288	5.24	11.8%	-1.6%	55	+1.18	4.06	401	87
Michael McGreevy R 2022 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	15.7%	5.6%	2.8%	.314	3.79	17.5%	12.3%	497	-0.25	3.46	810	86
Jeremy Rhoades R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	17.3%	7.3%	3.9%	.307	4.56	14.7%	7.3%	278	-0.17	3.48	496	86
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	85
Kyle Luckham R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.286	4.26	13.8%	6.8%	376	-0.14	3.78	501	85
Micah Owings R 2007 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.4%	3.1%	.264	4.75	16.4%	5.4%	258	+0.40	4.23	473	84
Ryan Lillie R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	16.9%	5.1%	3.3%	.272	4.83	15.3%	6.7%	146	+0.70	3.00	310	84
Cristian Alvarado R 2017 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP	3.90	13.8%	4.0%	2.7%	.316	3.89	15.7%	10.9%	229	-0.01	2.72	562	84
Daury Torrez R 2015 · 4.18 FIP	22	SP	4.18	12.0%	4.4%	2.8%	.291	3.89	15.3%	9.5%	221	-0.29	3.53	356	84
Reggie McClain R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	15.0%	6.2%	3.3%	.315	4.26	16.2%	9.0%	227	-0.18	2.99	452	84
Brady Feigl R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	15.9%	7.0%	2.3%	.333	5.26	19.4%	9.8%	122	+1.33	3.93	257	84
Brett Kennedy R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	18.5%	7.1%	3.5%	.292	3.85	18.0%	10.8%	116	-0.50	3.85	654	84
Nathan Bannister R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP	5.08	15.4%	4.0%	5.1%	.299	5.75	10.9%	2.6%	138	+0.67	5.08	281	84
Boomer Biegalski R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	13.6%	7.0%	2.8%	.283	4.27	25.3%	17.1%	73	-0.12	2.51	275	84
Brandon Miller R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	15.2%	6.9%	4.1%	.299	5.51	14.0%	7.4%	123	+0.57	4.94	245	83
Paul Richan R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	22	SP	3.87	17.2%	4.5%	3.0%	.334	6.39	18.0%	9.5%	29	+2.52	3.87	153	83
Jack Mahoney R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.16	15.0%	4.8%	206	+0.25	3.80	326	83
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.49	19.8%	14.1%	408	-0.82	2.69	525	83
Tyler Cleveland R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP-	3.99	14.5%	5.4%	2.6%	.284	4.41	18.9%	5.6%	149	+0.42	2.66	285	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.3	155	19.4%	5.4%	1.36	4.44
Ricky Nolasco ('17)	9.4	157	18.8%	5.7%	1.14	4.56
Scott Baker ('15)	5.3	133	18.9%	5.5%	1.23	4.26
John Smiley ('86-'97, 24 WAR*)	9.5	173	20.1%*	6.2%*	1.19*	4.16*
Bill Monbouquette ('58-'68, 24 WAR*)	9.8	178	18.4%*	5.4%*	1.22*	4.12*
Johnny Marcum ('33-'39, 13 WAR*)	5.5	157	18.4%*	6.2%*	1.37*	4.18*
Iván Nova ('20)	6.7	135	16.7%	6.4%	1.24	4.38