Cristofher Carrasco prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Cristofher Carrasco P Carolina Mudcats

Age 23 RHP 5'10" / 175 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%21.9%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	4	1	10	47	17	6	1	25%	2.5	36.2%	12.8%	23.4%	2.1%	5.40	2.83	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	4	1	10	47	17	6	1	25%	2.5	36.2%	12.8%	23.4%	2.1%	5.40	2.80	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	14	1	24	109	25	22	3	7%	1.7	15.6%	25.2%	-9.6%	4.3%	5.32	7.33	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	14	1	24	109	25	22	3	7%	1.7	15.6%	25.2%	-9.6%	4.3%	5.32	7.33	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	14	1	24	109	25	22	3	7%	1.7	22.9%	20.2%	2.8%	2.8%	5.32	5.42	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	1	14	68	18	11	2	9%	1.3	17.1%	18.2%	-1.1%	2.3%	5.14	5.20	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	1	14	68	18	11	2	9%	1.3	17.1%	18.2%	-1.1%	2.3%	5.14	5.20	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	1	14	68	18	11	2	9%	1.3	26.5%	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	5.14	4.74	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	14.9%	7.0%	3.0%	5.16	5.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIL	19	0	20	84	19	11	3	0%	1.1	22.6%	13.1%	9.6%	3.0%	4.94	4.85	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIL	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.1%	9.6%	3.0%	4.94	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	5	1	0%	1.1	22.6%	13.1%	9.6%	3.0%	4.94	4.47	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	117	23	0%	1.1	22.6%	13.1%	9.6%	3.0%	4.94	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		29	3	48	224	46	46	7	10%	1.6	20.4%	20.5%	-0.1%	3.2%	5.29	5.74	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	13	200	940	191	192	30	10%	1.6	20.4%	20.5%	-0.1%	3.2%	5.29	5.74	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cristofher Carrasco (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	21.9%	14.9%	3.0%	—	4.85	22.6%	9.6%	20	-0.31	—	—	—
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	90
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	89
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	88
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	87
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	86
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	86
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	86
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	85
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	85
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	85
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	85
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	85
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	85
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	84
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	84
David Ellingson R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	23	SU	4.15	20.5%	14.6%	1.7%	.362	3.52	18.0%	10.2%	105	-0.63	3.43	150	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	84
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	83
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	83