Jacob Burke
OF Birmingham Barons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AA/A+CWS | 274 | .188/.283/.221 | 0 | 24 | 20 | — | .169/.239/.197 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA/A+CWS | 283 | .214/.304/.284 | 3 | 14 | 48 | — | .203/.275/.272 |
| 2026 | 25 | AA/A+CWS | 339 | .239/.309/.346 | 5 | 15 | 45 | — | .194/.249/.280 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBCWS | 3 | .203/.261/.280 | 0 | 0 | 53 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBCWS | 45 | .204/.263/.284 | 0 | 1 | 54 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 92 | 78 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 269 | 380 | 410 | 791 | 141 | 351 | 22 | 7 | 361 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL White Sox | — | 22 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 455 | 556 | 1.010 | 222 | 385 | 18 | 14 | 446 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 236 | 203 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 52 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 281 | 379 | 394 | 773 | 113 | 367 | 22 | 9 | 352 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 149 | 127 | 40 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 33 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 315 | 416 | 512 | 928 | 197 | 400 | 22 | 10 | 412 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 105 | 91 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 253 | 346 | 407 | 753 | 154 | 351 | 30 | 9 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 256 | 223 | 43 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 67 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 193 | 291 | 229 | 520 | 36 | 274 | 26 | 10 | 249 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 118 | 167 | 118 | 284 | 167 | 28 | 6 | 139 | -47 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 227 | 198 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 58 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 212 | 290 | 273 | 562 | 61 | 284 | 26 | 7 | 256 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 56 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 222 | 364 | 333 | 697 | 111 | 214 | 5 | 11 | 323 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 317 | 287 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 67 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 240 | 308 | 348 | 656 | 108 | 295 | 21 | 7 | 297 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 22 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 318 | 316 | 634 | 105 | 364 | 36 | 9 | 296 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 92 | 80 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 225 | 326 | 350 | 676 | 125 | 313 | 30 | 4 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 22 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 364 | 474 | 837 | 211 | 283 | 27 | 9 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 236 | 211 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 72 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 218 | 298 | 308 | 606 | 90 | 310 | 31 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 149 | 131 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 45 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 244 | 336 | 389 | 725 | 145 | 333 | 30 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 256 | 232 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 83 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 172 | 244 | 203 | 447 | 30 | 262 | 32 | 7 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 118 | 167 | 118 | 284 | 149 | 39 | 6 | 99 | -47 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 227 | 204 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 69 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 201 | 262 | 260 | 522 | 59 | 274 | 30 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 56 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 327 | 319 | 646 | 106 | 190 | 7 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 317 | 294 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 82 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 201 | 254 | 289 | 543 | 88 | 256 | 26 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 22 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 182 | 150 | 332 | 50 | 293 | 45 | 5 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 114 | 99 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 212 | 316 | 313 | 629 | 101 | 312 | 30 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 114 | 96 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 281 | 395 | 438 | 832 | 156 | 357 | 21 | 8 | 378 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 490 | 435 | 99 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 148 | 22 | 24 | 7 | 228 | 311 | 340 | 652 | 113 | 326 | 30 | 6 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 490 | 421 | 120 | 29 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 117 | 22 | 24 | 7 | 285 | 383 | 432 | 816 | 147 | 374 | 24 | 9 | 367 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 274 | 250 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 90 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 164 | 232 | 192 | 424 | 28 | 255 | 33 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 274 | 240 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 72 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 188 | 283 | 221 | 504 | 33 | 266 | 26 | 10 | 242 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 252 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 74 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 198 | 268 | 262 | 530 | 63 | 263 | 26 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 283 | 243 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 61 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 214 | 304 | 284 | 588 | 70 | 268 | 22 | 8 | 270 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 339 | 314 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 92 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 194 | 249 | 280 | 530 | 86 | 259 | 27 | 4 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 339 | 306 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 75 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 239 | 309 | 346 | 655 | 108 | 298 | 22 | 7 | 297 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 114 | 98 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 214 | 316 | 316 | 632 | 102 | 307 | 30 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 490 | 434 | 99 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 148 | 22 | 24 | 7 | 228 | 311 | 341 | 652 | 113 | 319 | 30 | 6 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 274 | 250 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 90 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 164 | 232 | 192 | 424 | 28 | 255 | 33 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 257 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 74 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 195 | 268 | 257 | 525 | 62 | 257 | 26 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 339 | 313 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 92 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 195 | 249 | 281 | 530 | 86 | 258 | 27 | 4 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 274 | 250 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 90 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 164 | 232 | 192 | 424 | 28 | 255 | 33 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 257 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 74 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 195 | 268 | 257 | 525 | 62 | 257 | 26 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 339 | 313 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 92 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 195 | 249 | 281 | 530 | 86 | 258 | 27 | 4 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | CWS | 2% | 380 | 349 | 71 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 102 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 202 | 260 | 279 | 539 | 76 | 271 | 27 | 5 | 246 | 53 | -21 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | CWS | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 261 | 280 | 541 | 77 | 271 | 33 | 0 | 247 | 53 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | CWS | 27% | 167 | 153 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 203 | 262 | 282 | 545 | 79 | 271 | 26 | 5 | 249 | 54 | -9 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | CWS | 27% | 45 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 263 | 284 | 547 | 80 | 272 | 27 | 4 | 249 | 54 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 45 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 244 | 238 | 483 | 48 | 267 | 27 | 4 | 249 | 54 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 607 | 116 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 173 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 191 | 245 | 239 | 483 | 48 | 267 | 27 | 4 | 249 | 54 | -35 | +3 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1822 | 1646 | 334 | 61 | 9 | 19 | 101 | 523 | 59 | 91 | 24 | 203 | 274 | 286 | 559 | 83 | 283 | 29 | 6 | 248 | 54 | -18 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 119 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 36 | 187 | 21 | 32 | 9 | 203 | 273 | 286 | 559 | 83 | 282 | 29 | 6 | 248 | 54 | -36 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AABirmingham Barons · 317 PAwOBA .291 → .237 (−54)K% 21.1% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 4.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.21% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.951 | ×0.998 | 19.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.951 | ×0.998 | 4.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.951 | ×0.998 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.81% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .291 → .237; ISO .108 → .088; BABIP .295 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 22 PAwOBA .289 → .196 (−93)K% 36.4% → 47.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.36% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 47.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 5.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 3.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 15.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 13.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .289 → .196; ISO .105 → .070; BABIP .364 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AABirmingham Barons · 227 PAwOBA .253 → .230 (−23)K% 25.6% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.55% | ÷1.020 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.49% | ÷1.020 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.20% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.29% | ÷0.954 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×1.012 | 23.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.29% | ÷0.984 | ×0.910 | ×0.993 | ×1.012 | 3.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.993 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.43% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.48% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 91, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .253 → .230; ISO .061 → .060; BABIP .284 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 56 PAwOBA .321 → .272 (−49)K% 5.4% → 7.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.36% | ÷0.955 | ×1.310 | — | — | 7.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷0.949 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 6.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.14% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 5.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.942 | ×0.870 | ×1.005 | ×0.988 | 15.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.984 | ×0.780 | ×1.005 | ×0.988 | 3.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.850 | ×1.005 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.923 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.24% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 88, 2B 97, 3B 109, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .321 → .272; ISO .111 → .105; BABIP .214 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABirmingham Barons · 256 PAwOBA .244 → .205 (−39)K% 26.2% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.17% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.16% | ÷1.081 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 6.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×1.027 | 22.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.990 | ×0.910 | ×0.996 | ×1.027 | 3.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷1.044 | ×0.880 | ×0.996 | ×1.027 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 96, 2B 98, 3B 109, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .244 → .205; ISO .036 → .032; BABIP .274 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 18 PAwOBA .136 → .099 (−37)K% 27.8% → 38.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷0.952 | ×1.310 | — | — | 38.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.006 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 3.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.972 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 14.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.070 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.817 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 94, 2B 114, 3B 86, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .136 → .099; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .167 → .149. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 236 PAwOBA .345 → .263 (−81)K% 22.0% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.03% | ÷0.948 | ×1.310 | — | — | 30.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.90% | ÷0.943 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 5.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.66% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 3.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.49% | ÷1.011 | ×0.870 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 23.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.61% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 6.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.008 | ×0.850 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.017 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.16% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 106, 3B 102, K 90, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .345 → .263; ISO .113 → .086; BABIP .367 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 149 PAwOBA .401 → .313 (−89)K% 22.1% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.15% | ÷1.004 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.07% | ÷0.951 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.53% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 22.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.70% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 8.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.988 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 0.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.26% | ÷0.861 | ×0.800 | — | — | 3.96% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 100, 2B 110, 3B 98, K 101, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .401 → .313; ISO .197 → .156; BABIP .400 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).