Seth Keener

P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	16	16	69	4.02	2.44	27.9%	11.9%	—	K 20.7% · BB 13.6% · FIP 3.40
2025	23	MIX2 levels	25	15	77	8.06	5.27	20.1%	12.1%	—	K 15.2% · BB 14.0% · FIP 6.54
2026	24	MIX2 levels	35	1	47	6.36	4.04	21.4%	11.2%	—	K 16.9% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.70
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	57	0	60	5.74	5.74	15.2%	14.2%	-0.8
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCWS	29	0	30	5.57	5.55	16.6%	13.6%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCWS	41	0	43	5.49	5.49	17.1%	13.4%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsCameron Foster (age 25) · Cooper Adams (age 24) · Colby Morris (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.74

FIP5.74

K%15.2%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%1.0%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	5	12	52	14	4	1	71%	1.8	26.9%	7.7%	19.2%	1.9%	4.38	2.86	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	5	12	52	14	4	1	71%	1.8	26.9%	7.7%	19.2%	1.9%	4.38	2.86	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	69	294	82	35	1	100%	4.3	20.7%	13.6%	7.1%	0.6%	4.02	3.40	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	69	294	82	35	1	100%	4.3	20.7%	13.6%	7.1%	0.6%	4.02	3.40	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	69	294	82	35	1	100%	4.3	27.9%	11.9%	16.0%	0.3%	4.02	2.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	77	373	75	45	14	60%	3.1	15.2%	14.0%	1.1%	5.4%	8.06	6.54	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	77	373	75	45	14	60%	3.1	15.2%	14.0%	1.1%	5.4%	8.06	6.54	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	15	77	373	75	45	14	60%	3.1	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	3.8%	8.06	5.27	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	47	224	48	25	5	3%	1.3	16.9%	11.3%	5.6%	2.9%	6.36	4.70	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	47	224	48	25	5	3%	1.3	16.9%	11.3%	5.6%	2.9%	6.36	4.70	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	1	47	224	48	25	5	3%	1.3	21.4%	11.2%	10.3%	2.2%	6.36	4.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	57	0	60	253	38	36	8	0%	1.1	15.2%	14.2%	1.0%	3.2%	5.74	5.74	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	66	0	69	293	48	40	9	0%	1.1	16.6%	13.6%	2.9%	3.2%	5.57	5.55	-0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	65	0	68	288	49	39	9	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.4%	3.7%	3.2%	5.49	5.49	-0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	63	0	66	280	48	37	9	0%	1.1	17.3%	13.3%	3.9%	3.3%	5.49	5.52	-0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	60	0	63	267	46	36	9	0%	1.1	17.2%	13.4%	3.7%	3.4%	5.56	5.62	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	29	0	30	127	21	17	4	0%	1.0	16.6%	13.6%	2.9%	3.2%	5.57	5.55	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	41	0	43	182	31	24	6	0%	1.0	17.1%	13.4%	3.7%	3.2%	5.49	5.49	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	48	0	50	211	36	28	7	0%	1.0	17.3%	13.3%	3.9%	3.3%	5.49	5.52	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	50	0	52	220	38	30	8	0%	1.0	17.2%	13.4%	3.7%	3.4%	5.56	5.62	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		166	0	174	735	126	99	24	0%	1.0	17.1%	13.4%	3.6%	3.3%	5.52	5.17	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	145	114	28	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.4%	3.6%	3.3%	5.52	5.17	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		83	37	205	943	169	122	29	45%	2.5	18.0%	12.9%	5.0%	3.1%	6.09	4.92	-3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	36	200	919	165	119	29	45%	2.5	18.0%	12.9%	5.0%	3.1%	6.09	4.92	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Keener (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.74	15.2%	14.2%	3.2%	—	5.52	17.0%	3.5%	204	-0.22	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	82
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	82
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	82
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	81
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	80
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	80
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	79
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	79
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	79
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	78
Dillon McNamara R 2017 · 5.01 FIP	25	SW	5.01	13.3%	11.1%	3.0%	.229	3.00	21.2%	12.3%	69	-2.01	1.73	244	78
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	77
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	76
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	76
Corey Avant R 2024 · 4.76 FIP	22	SW	4.76	17.1%	14.9%	2.2%	.394	4.57	19.9%	6.4%	221	-0.19	3.69	292	76
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	76
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	76
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	76
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	75
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	65	16.7%	13.6%	1.26	5.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*