Grant Umberger
P
Winston-Salem Dash
Age 24
LHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 74 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98107vR 116
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
K%20.4%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%11.5%
ROS IP74
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 106 | 430 | 116 | 34 | 1 | 72% | 4.2 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 0.4% | 2.56 | 2.83 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 106 | 430 | 116 | 34 | 1 | 72% | 4.2 | 27.0% | 7.9% | 19.1% | 0.2% | 2.56 | 1.99 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 17 | 13 | 74 | 336 | 60 | 26 | 13 | 76% | 4.4 | 13.8% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.57 | 5.72 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 64 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.4% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 4.28 | 4.28 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 148 | 649 | 124 | 54 | 21 | — | — | 19.1% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.99 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.4% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 4.28 | 3.91 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 127 | 537 | 113 | 45 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.0% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 2.5% | 4.21 | 4.17 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 127 | 537 | 115 | 45 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.3% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 4.18 | 4.16 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 125 | 529 | 113 | 44 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 8.4% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.20 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 122 | 513 | 109 | 44 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.28 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 103 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.42 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 109 | 461 | 95 | 42 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.59 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 102 | 429 | 87 | 40 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.80 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 79 | 39 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 5.02 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 86 | 364 | 70 | 37 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 5.11 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 49 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.0% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 76 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.3% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.18 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 87 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.3% | 8.4% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.23 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 91 | 37 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.31 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 90 | 38 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.45 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 85 | 37 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.62 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 79 | 37 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.83 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 87 | 367 | 73 | 36 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 5.05 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 66 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 5.15 | 5.31 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 133 | 133 | 799 | 3375 | 697 | 304 | 105 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.20 | +11.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 76 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 42 | 31 | 180 | 766 | 134 | 71 | 18 | 74% | 4.3 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 3.80 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 34 | 200 | 851 | 149 | 78 | 20 | 74% | 4.3 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 3.80 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Umberger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 2.5% | — | 4.18 | 21.2% | 12.8% | 380 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 160 | 91 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 89 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 87 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 83 |
| Carson Teel L 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.44 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 1.2% | .292 | 4.80 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 144 | +1.36 | 3.44 | 248 | 83 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 82 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 82 |
| Danny Duffy L 2028 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.94 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 481 | -0.33 | 3.29 | 915 | 82 |
| Chipper Smith L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 81 |
| John Michael Bertrand L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.72 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 1.5% | .294 | 4.27 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 345 | +0.55 | 3.72 | 463 | 81 |
| Trey Dombroski L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.75 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .285 | 5.21 | 17.5% | 3.9% | 66 | +1.46 | 3.75 | 395 | 80 |
| Ben Shields L 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.20 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 2.91 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 43 | -0.29 | 2.91 | 147 | 80 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | 4.26 | 16.9% | 10.6% | 73 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 174 | 80 |
| Ryan Ramsey L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .326 | 5.09 | 17.5% | 5.5% | 76 | +0.78 | 2.69 | 318 | 79 |
| Brandon Schaeffer L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.08 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 134 | 79 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 79 |
| Felix Doubront L 2029 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 78 |
| Brandyn Garcia L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.39 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 1.3% | .289 | 3.76 | 25.6% | 13.5% | 95 | +0.37 | 2.37 | 211 | 78 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.80 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.89 | 16.4% | 0.1% | 47 | +1.09 | 3.73 | 280 | 78 |
| Adalberto Mejía L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.96 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .313 | 3.76 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 117 | -0.20 | 3.39 | 427 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 113 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 4.42 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS | 9 | 125 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 4.25 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |