Grant Umberger — OGILVIE

Grant Umberger P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION121 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

K%20.4%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 132 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD4555

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$11M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	106	430	116	34	1	72%	4.2	20.3%	9.5%	10.9%	0.4%	2.56	2.79	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	106	430	116	34	1	72%	4.2	20.3%	9.5%	10.9%	0.4%	2.56	2.79	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	106	430	116	34	1	72%	4.2	27.0%	7.9%	19.1%	0.2%	2.56	1.99	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	26	22	121	530	108	39	17	85%	4.6	15.7%	8.5%	7.2%	4.0%	4.70	5.05	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	26	22	121	530	108	39	17	85%	4.6	15.7%	8.5%	7.2%	4.0%	4.70	5.05	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	CWS	26	22	121	530	108	39	17	85%	4.6	20.4%	7.4%	13.0%	3.2%	4.70	4.07	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CWS	2	2	11	48	10	4	1	100%	5.7	20.4%	9.0%	11.4%	2.5%	4.27	4.27	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	132	578	118	43	18	—	—	20.4%	7.5%	12.9%	3.1%	4.66	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	127	537	113	46	14	100%	5.8	21.0%	8.5%	12.5%	2.5%	4.21	4.18	+1.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	127	537	115	45	14	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	2.6%	4.18	4.16	+1.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	125	529	113	45	14	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.5%	12.8%	2.6%	4.20	4.20	+1.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	20	20	122	513	109	44	14	100%	6.1	21.2%	8.6%	12.6%	2.8%	4.25	4.29	+0.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	116	490	103	43	14	100%	6.1	21.0%	8.8%	12.1%	2.9%	4.35	4.42	+0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	18	18	109	461	95	42	14	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.1%	11.5%	3.1%	4.50	4.60	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	102	429	87	41	14	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.5%	10.8%	3.3%	4.68	4.80	+0.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	94	397	79	39	14	100%	5.9	19.8%	9.9%	9.9%	3.6%	4.89	5.02	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	55	232	49	20	6	100%	6.1	21.0%	8.5%	12.5%	2.6%	4.23	4.20	+0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	14	14	85	359	76	30	9	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	2.6%	4.20	4.18	+0.7
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	97	410	87	35	11	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.5%	12.8%	2.7%	4.23	4.23	+0.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	102	431	91	37	12	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.6%	12.6%	2.8%	4.28	4.32	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	102	431	90	38	13	100%	6.0	21.0%	8.8%	12.1%	3.0%	4.38	4.45	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	98	414	85	38	13	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.1%	11.5%	3.2%	4.53	4.63	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	93	393	79	37	13	100%	5.8	20.2%	9.5%	10.8%	3.4%	4.71	4.83	+0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	CWS	14	14	87	367	73	36	13	100%	6.2	19.8%	9.9%	9.9%	3.6%	4.92	5.05	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		120	120	719	3034	631	271	91	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.9%	11.9%	3.0%	4.44	4.12	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	176	75	25	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.9%	11.9%	3.0%	4.44	4.12	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		51	40	226	960	171	86	23	78%	4.4	17.8%	8.9%	8.9%	2.4%	3.70	4.03	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	35	200	848	151	76	20	78%	4.4	17.8%	8.9%	8.9%	2.4%	3.70	4.03	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Umberger (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	20.4%	9.0%	2.5%	—	4.18	21.2%	12.7%	380	-0.09	—	—	—
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	92
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	89
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	88
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	87
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	83
Will Dion L 2023 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	22.3%	8.4%	2.0%	.289	4.06	21.2%	13.2%	294	+0.69	3.09	526	83
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	83
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	82
Danny Duffy L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	17.3%	9.0%	2.8%	.292	3.96	22.7%	15.3%	481	-0.33	3.29	915	82
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	82
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	81
Adalberto Mejía L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP	3.96	18.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.313	3.67	19.5%	9.3%	117	-0.29	3.30	427	81
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	81
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	81
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	81
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	80
Carson Teel L 2019 · 3.43 FIP	23	SP-	3.43	17.2%	8.8%	1.2%	.292	4.86	16.9%	10.0%	144	+1.43	3.43	248	80
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	80
Aaron Leasher L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	17.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.301	4.15	19.8%	9.5%	152	-0.16	4.04	477	79
David Parkinson L 2019 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	19.6%	8.8%	2.1%	.303	5.44	16.0%	8.2%	78	+1.74	3.07	517	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	116	20.8%	8.9%	1.10	4.37
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14