Grant Umberger

P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 25 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#670ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	25	18	106	2.56	1.99	27.0%	7.9%	—	K 20.3% · BB 9.5% · FIP 2.79
2026	24	A+CWS	26	22	121	4.70	4.11	20.4%	7.4%	—	K 15.7% · BB 8.5% · FIP 5.05
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	1	1	1	4.82	4.82	16.7%	8.3%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCWS	8	8	49	4.75	4.72	18.1%	8.2%	0.4
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCWS	11	11	64	4.72	4.72	18.4%	8.3%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsLuis Leroy Cruz (age 24) · Chad Bell (age 26) · Brandon Schaeffer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 125

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%16.7%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP141

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 141 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.2M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	106	430	116	34	1	72%	4.2	20.3%	9.5%	10.9%	0.4%	2.56	2.79	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	106	430	116	34	1	72%	4.2	20.3%	9.5%	10.9%	0.4%	2.56	2.79	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	106	430	116	34	1	72%	4.2	27.0%	7.9%	19.1%	0.2%	2.56	1.99	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	26	22	121	530	108	39	17	85%	4.6	15.7%	8.5%	7.2%	4.0%	4.70	5.05	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	26	22	121	530	108	39	17	85%	4.6	15.7%	8.5%	7.2%	4.0%	4.70	5.05	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	26	22	121	530	108	39	17	85%	4.6	20.4%	7.4%	13.0%	3.2%	4.70	4.11	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	16.7%	8.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.82	4.82	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	114	483	87	40	15	100%	6.0	18.1%	8.2%	9.9%	3.1%	4.72	4.69	+0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	102	431	79	36	13	100%	6.0	18.4%	8.3%	10.1%	3.1%	4.69	4.69	+0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	95	400	74	34	13	100%	5.9	18.4%	8.4%	10.0%	3.2%	4.72	4.76	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	87	369	67	32	12	100%	5.8	18.3%	8.6%	9.7%	3.4%	4.80	4.87	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	13	13	79	333	60	30	12	100%	6.1	17.9%	8.9%	9.0%	3.6%	4.95	5.05	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	49	207	37	17	6	100%	6.1	18.1%	8.2%	9.9%	3.1%	4.75	4.72	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	64	270	50	22	9	100%	5.8	18.4%	8.3%	10.1%	3.2%	4.72	4.72	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	71	300	55	25	10	100%	5.9	18.4%	8.4%	10.0%	3.3%	4.75	4.79	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	71	300	55	26	10	100%	5.9	18.3%	8.6%	9.7%	3.4%	4.83	4.90	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	68	287	52	26	10	100%	6.2	17.9%	8.9%	9.0%	3.6%	4.98	5.08	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	54	323	1365	249	116	46	100%	6.0	18.3%	8.5%	9.7%	3.3%	4.81	4.47	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	154	72	28	100%	6.0	18.3%	8.5%	9.7%	3.3%	4.81	4.47	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		51	40	226	960	171	86	23	78%	4.4	17.8%	8.9%	8.9%	2.4%	3.70	4.03	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	35	200	848	151	76	20	78%	4.4	17.8%	8.9%	8.9%	2.4%	3.70	4.03	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 121 IPFIP 4.07 → 5.05 (+0.98)K% 20.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.38%	—	×0.770	15.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.36%	—	×1.150	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	3.21%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.01%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.07 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 102 IPFIP 1.93 → 2.79 (+0.86)K% 27.5% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.49%	—	×0.740	20.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.03%	—	×1.180	9.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.24%	÷0.853	×1.300	0.37%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 1.93 → 2.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Umberger (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.71	18.3%	10.0%	311	-0.11	—	—	—
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	85
Chad Bell L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	15.7%	7.4%	2.3%	.326	4.07	19.0%	10.2%	252	+0.10	3.39	393	85
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	84
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.2%	5.3%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	84
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	84
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	83
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	83
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	82
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	82
Chris Jones L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	26	SP-	3.80	15.0%	4.9%	2.4%	.305	4.07	13.4%	5.6%	118	+0.27	3.80	268	82
Jeriome Robertson L 2003 · 4.70 FIP	26	SP	4.70	13.9%	7.9%	3.2%	.295	7.27	8.0%	-1.3%	14	+2.57	4.70	175	82
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	82
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	81
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	81
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	19.4%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.51	17.5%	8.3%	190	+0.30	4.18	539	80
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	80
Daniel Camarena L 2018 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	15.9%	9.7%	2.4%	.338	4.71	16.9%	10.5%	187	+0.39	3.76	674	80
Logan Boyd L 2017 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP-	4.12	14.9%	10.2%	1.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	276	79
Blair Walters L 2015 · 3.87 FIP	25	SP-	3.87	11.8%	8.3%	1.3%	.284	4.66	14.6%	0.4%	127	+0.79	3.87	262	79
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	103	17.9%	8.4%	1.25	4.78
Bob Sadowski ('63-'66, 2 WAR*)	2.2	110	17.7%*	8.0%*	1.20*	4.73*
Chris Narveson ('16)	2.2	109	19.4%	8.6%	1.20	4.71
Chris Flexen ('25)	3.5	115	16.1%	8.5%	1.38	4.83
Chad Bettis ('19)	3.0	86	16.2%	7.9%	1.18	5.12
Jackie Brown ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	4.5	128	19.7%*	8.9%*	1.21*	4.93*
Don Kirkwood ('74-'78, -1 WAR*)	1.9	94	18.8%*	8.3%*	1.12*	5.19*