Grant Umberger
P
Winston-Salem Dash
+1.4
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.7 · 2028
ERA4.14
FIP4.14
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.3%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.0%
IP102
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.7peak
2028
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 25 | 18 | 106 | 430 | 116 | 34 | 1 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 0.4% | 2.56 | 2.78 | +3.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 3 | 3 | 14 | 67 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 7.24 | 5.80 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 102 | 431 | 96 | 40 | 11 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 4.14 | 4.14 | +1.3 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 116 | 498 | 111 | 45 | 14 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.34 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 115 | 487 | 110 | 43 | 12 | 22.7% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 4.11 | 4.08 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 118 | 45 | 13 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 4.07 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 125 | 529 | 121 | 46 | 14 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 4.09 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 126 | 530 | 120 | 46 | 14 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 4.12 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 123 | 518 | 117 | 46 | 14 | 22.6% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.17 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 119 | 502 | 113 | 45 | 14 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.23 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 115 | 485 | 107 | 44 | 14 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 110 | 465 | 102 | 43 | 13 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.39 | +1.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 105 | 444 | 96 | 42 | 13 | 21.6% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.49 | +1.0 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 100 | 422 | 90 | 40 | 13 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.60 | +0.8 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 94 | 398 | 83 | 39 | 13 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.72 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 76 | 37 | 12 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 4.85 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 69 | 36 | 12 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 5.00 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 28 | 21 | 119 | 497 | 99 | 46 | 5 | 19.9% | 9.4% | 1.1% | 3.09 | 3.19 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 35 | 200 | 833 | 166 | 77 | 8 | 19.9% | 9.4% | 1.1% | 3.09 | 3.19 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Umberger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.14 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | — | 4.08 | 22.8% | 14.0% | 363 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 92 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 91 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 90 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 89 |
| Gage Jump L 2024 · 3.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.19 | 22.6% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 113 | 88 |
| Ben Shields L 2027 · 3.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.23 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 3.05 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 43 | -0.18 | 3.05 | 147 | 87 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 87 |
| Brycen Mautz L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .281 | 4.00 | 17.0% | -1.4% | 13 | +0.24 | 3.62 | 353 | 87 |
| David Parkinson L 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 87 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 87 |
| Hunter Owen L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 87 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 86 |
| Jackson Kent L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 86 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 85 |
| Steven Matz L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.32 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .283 | 4.00 | 22.2% | 15.5% | 366 | +0.68 | 3.11 | 1,167 | 84 |
| Nick Maronde L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 84 |
| Brant Hurter L 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.08 | 21.6% | 7.3% | 1.6% | .311 | 3.52 | 21.6% | 14.6% | 180 | +0.44 | 2.88 | 404 | 84 |
| Adalberto Mejía L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.65 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 117 | -0.22 | 3.26 | 427 | 84 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.74 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.67 | 23.7% | 9.6% | 208 | +0.93 | 2.03 | 402 | 84 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2027 · 3.17 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.17 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 2.0% | .300 | 3.70 | 23.0% | 15.2% | 290 | +0.53 | 3.17 | 372 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.6 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.3 | $13M | +$10M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.1 | $11M | +$7M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.0 | $10M | +$5M |
| Totals | $14M | $78M | +$64M | ||