Chris Flexen
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 32
RHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION87 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.97
FIP5.03
xFIP5.11
SIERA5.05
K%14.8%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%6.5%
IP88
K†3030
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p1016.7%
K%
p1012.4%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
FB+8.3 (41%)
CT+2.4 (28%)
CH (2%)
CU (20%)
SL-2.4 (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A | Savannah Sand Gnats | 9 | 7 | 40 | 154 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 18.4% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 2.34 | +1.0 |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | 25 | 25 | 134 | 572 | 95 | 51 | 6 | 12.8% | 10.3% | 1.5% | 3.56 | 4.13 | +2.0 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | New York Mets | 24 | 19 | 109 | 465 | 99 | 45 | 16 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.45 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | New York Mets | 22 | 18 | 98 | 437 | 81 | 35 | 13 | 17.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 4.29 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 35 | 15 | 92 | 415 | 102 | 32 | 12 | 21.9% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.13 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 31 | 31 | 180 | 741 | 125 | 40 | 19 | 16.9% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 3.61 | 3.84 | +3.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 33 | 22 | 138 | 590 | 95 | 48 | 17 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 3.73 | 4.44 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 31 | 18 | 112 | 503 | 85 | 43 | 26 | 15.9% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 6.37 | 5.05 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 33 | 30 | 160 | 707 | 123 | 62 | 24 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 4.54 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 26 | 6 | 67 | 272 | 43 | 20 | 7 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 2.42 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 51 | 29 | 11 | 14.8% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 50 | 25 | 11 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 43 | 24 | 11 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 5.21 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 36 | 23 | 11 | 14.1% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 5.49 | 5.68 | -0.8 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 30 | 22 | 10 | 13.1% | 9.6% | 4.5% | 5.82 | 6.05 | -1.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 269 | 191 | 1130 | 4856 | 818 | 394 | 140 | 16.8% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.28 | +14.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 34 | 200 | 860 | 145 | 70 | 25 | 16.8% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chris Flexen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.03 | 14.8% | 8.3% | 3.2% | — | 5.33 | 15.1% | 6.6% | 204 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 62 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.02 | 14.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% | .268 | 5.32 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 166 | +0.30 | 3.84 | 567 | 61 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.37 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 275 | 60 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 60 |
| Scott Feldman R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.18 | 13.5% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.35 | 18.4% | 12.4% | 188 | +0.17 | 3.92 | 297 | 59 |
| Yohan Pino R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 59 |
| Sam LeCure R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.27 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 171 | 58 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 58 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 58 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.23 | 12.8% | 9.3% | 1.9% | .301 | 5.92 | 11.4% | 1.2% | 103 | +1.69 | 4.23 | 325 | 58 |
| Jerome Williams R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 56 |
| Josh Zeid R 2024 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 56 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.15 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.8% | .312 | 5.23 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 369 | +0.08 | 3.69 | 521 | 56 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.12 | 15.2% | 7.4% | 2.5% | .306 | 4.74 | 15.7% | 7.6% | 115 | +0.62 | 4.12 | 365 | 56 |
| David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 56 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.02 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .273 | 4.18 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.16 | 3.66 | 720 | 55 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.32 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | .293 | 3.59 | 10.8% | 5.2% | 216 | -0.73 | 3.18 | 450 | 54 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.12 | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .353 | 3.44 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 160 | -1.68 | 3.29 | 283 | 54 |
| Francisco Cordova R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.78 | 7.1% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.78 | 115 | 54 |
| Kyle Kendrick R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.23 | 13.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 337 | 54 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.