Brandon Schaeffer prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Brandon Schaeffer P ACL Mariners

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 195 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.9 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%19.6%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP90

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	134	591	128	43	11	93%	5.0	16.4%	8.5%	7.9%	2.3%	4.29	4.07	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	134	591	128	43	11	93%	5.0	16.4%	8.5%	7.9%	2.3%	4.29	4.07	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	134	591	128	43	11	93%	5.0	21.7%	7.3%	14.4%	1.9%	4.29	3.22	—
2024	24	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	5	4	5	29	4	5	0	80%	1.1	13.8%	17.2%	-3.4%	0.0%	10.12	4.12	—
2024	24	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	5	4	5	29	4	5	0	80%	1.1	13.8%	17.2%	-3.4%	0.0%	10.12	4.12	—
2024	24	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	5	4	5	29	4	5	0	80%	1.1	13.8%	17.2%	-3.4%	0.0%	10.12	4.41	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	3.0%	4.56	4.56	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	89	375	74	33	11	100%	5.9	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	3.0%	4.55	4.57	+0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	86	363	72	32	11	100%	6.1	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.1%	4.58	4.63	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	82	347	68	31	11	100%	5.9	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	3.3%	4.67	4.74	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	77	326	70	27	11	100%	5.9	21.4%	8.4%	13.0%	3.5%	4.64	4.63	+0.2
2031	31	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	72	304	64	27	11	100%	6.0	21.0%	8.8%	12.3%	3.7%	4.76	4.83	+0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	SEA	5	5	32	135	27	12	4	100%	6.4	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	2.9%	4.51	4.53	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	51	215	43	19	7	100%	6.4	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.0%	4.54	4.59	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	58	245	48	22	8	100%	5.8	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	3.2%	4.63	4.70	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	60	253	54	21	9	100%	6.0	21.4%	8.4%	13.0%	3.4%	4.59	4.58	+0.2
2031	31	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	60	253	53	22	9	100%	6.0	21.0%	8.8%	12.3%	3.6%	4.71	4.78	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	43	261	1100	225	96	36	100%	6.1	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	3.3%	4.61	4.27	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	173	74	28	100%	6.0	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	3.3%	4.61	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		32	29	140	620	101	55	14	91%	4.4	16.3%	8.9%	7.4%	2.2%	4.51	4.08	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	42	200	888	144	79	20	91%	4.4	16.3%	8.9%	7.4%	2.2%	4.51	4.08	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Schaeffer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	19.6%	8.7%	3.0%	—	4.64	19.8%	11.0%	257	+0.08	—	—	—
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	82
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.85	18.0%	10.5%	367	-0.33	3.77	480	82
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	81
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	80
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.61	19.4%	5.0%	215	+0.09	3.88	280	79
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2016 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.334	3.92	19.3%	9.9%	209	+0.46	3.46	440	79
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	79
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	3.99	17.6%	7.2%	171	+0.40	3.59	280	78
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	78
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	78
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	19.4%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.51	17.5%	8.3%	190	+0.30	4.18	539	78
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	78
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	78
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	77
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	77
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	1,022	77
Scott Downs L 2000 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP	4.63	14.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	748	76
Matt Lujan L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	15.5%	10.0%	1.8%	.326	4.84	16.0%	7.6%	119	+0.78	4.06	227	76
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	76
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	83	20.2%	8.7%	1.25	4.62
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82
Randall Delgado ('18)	2.7	78	20.1%	8.8%	1.11	4.10