Jackson Dannelley

Jackson Dannelley P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 195 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 125

ERA5.71

FIP5.71

K%15.1%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%0.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	30	0	51	226	48	26	5	0%	1.7	15.7%	13.6%	2.1%	2.2%	5.51	4.73	—
2025	23	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	30	0	51	226	48	26	5	0%	1.7	15.7%	13.6%	2.1%	2.2%	5.51	4.73	—
2025	23	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	30	0	51	226	48	26	5	0%	1.7	21.2%	11.5%	9.7%	2.2%	5.51	4.03	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	32	0	35	149	40	19	3	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.7%	7.9%	3.0%	3.12	4.55	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	32	0	35	149	40	19	3	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.7%	7.9%	3.0%	3.12	4.55	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	WSH	6	0	4	19	6	6	0	0%	0.7	31.6%	31.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.43	—
2026	24	A RAW	WSH	14	0	18	74	22	8	2	0%	1.3	29.7%	10.8%	18.9%	2.7%	3.57	3.44	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	WSH	12	0	13	56	12	5	1	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	1.8%	3.55	3.40	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	22	3	3	1	0%	1.0	15.1%	15.0%	0.1%	2.9%	5.71	5.71	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	40	171	43	22	4	—	—	25.3%	13.0%	12.3%	2.1%	3.46	4.70	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	65	0	68	287	48	39	8	0%	1.0	16.7%	13.7%	3.0%	2.9%	5.47	5.40	-0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	65	0	68	287	50	38	8	0%	1.0	17.5%	13.3%	4.3%	2.9%	5.32	5.28	-0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	64	0	67	283	50	37	8	0%	1.0	17.8%	13.2%	4.7%	3.0%	5.27	5.27	-0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	62	0	65	274	49	36	8	0%	1.0	17.8%	13.2%	4.6%	3.1%	5.30	5.33	-0.6
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	28	0	29	122	20	17	4	0%	1.0	16.7%	13.7%	3.0%	2.9%	5.47	5.40	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	43	0	45	190	33	25	6	0%	1.0	17.5%	13.3%	4.3%	2.9%	5.32	5.28	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	50	0	52	220	39	29	7	0%	1.0	17.8%	13.2%	4.7%	3.0%	5.27	5.27	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	52	0	55	232	41	31	7	0%	1.1	17.8%	13.2%	4.6%	3.1%	5.30	5.33	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	762	134	101	23	0%	1.0	17.6%	13.3%	4.3%	3.0%	5.32	4.93	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	148	112	25	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.3%	4.3%	3.0%	5.32	4.93	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		62	0	85	375	65	48	9	0%	1.4	17.3%	12.8%	4.4%	2.5%	4.54	4.65	-2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	0	200	879	152	113	22	0%	1.4	17.3%	12.8%	4.4%	2.5%	4.54	4.65	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Dannelley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.71	15.1%	15.0%	2.9%	—	5.32	17.3%	4.0%	203	-0.39	—	—	—
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	90
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	90
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	89
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	89
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	87
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	86
Parker Markel R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	13.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.313	3.18	15.9%	6.2%	61	-1.49	3.18	266	86
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	85
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	85
Michael Mertz R 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SU	5.18	16.1%	13.9%	3.0%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	133	85
José A. Váldez R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	15.3%	15.3%	1.5%	.279	4.32	22.3%	9.9%	167	-0.23	4.02	328	85
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	85
Morgan McSweeney R 2022 · 5.16 FIP	24	SU	5.16	18.0%	13.9%	3.3%	.278	4.36	16.0%	6.0%	107	-0.80	3.20	213	84
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	84
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	84
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	84
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	84
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	84
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	17.0%	13.7%	1.14	5.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41