Jackson Dannelley
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 24
RHP
5'10" / 195 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144135vR 126
ERA5.59
FIP5.59
K%15.1%
BB%14.3%
K-BB%0.8%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 30 | 0 | 51 | 226 | 48 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 15.7% | 13.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 5.51 | 4.50 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 30 | 0 | 51 | 226 | 48 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 5.51 | 4.03 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 18 | 0 | 20 | 87 | 25 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 13.9% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 3.15 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 43 | 41 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.1% | 14.3% | 0.8% | 2.9% | 5.59 | 5.59 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.1% | 14.3% | 0.8% | 2.9% | 5.59 | 5.59 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 87 | 371 | 68 | 55 | 10 | — | — | 18.3% | 14.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 5.03 | 5.50 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 48 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.37 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 50 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 12.8% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 5.24 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 50 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 12.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 5.19 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.37 | 5.30 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 33 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 12.8% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 5.24 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 39 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 12.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 5.19 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 0 | 126 | 532 | 93 | 68 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 12.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 5.25 | 4.84 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 148 | 108 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 12.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 5.25 | 4.84 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 48 | 0 | 71 | 313 | 54 | 43 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.1% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.84 | 4.70 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 0 | 200 | 886 | 151 | 121 | 21 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.1% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.84 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Dannelley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.59 | 15.1% | 14.3% | 2.9% | — | 5.23 | 17.3% | 4.5% | 203 | -0.36 | — | — | — |
| Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 90 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 88 |
| David Trexler R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.91 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.47 | 4.44 | 100 | 88 |
| Rob Huber R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.67 | 15.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 117 | 87 |
| Parker Markel R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.69 | 13.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.16 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 61 | -1.53 | 3.16 | 266 | 87 |
| Conner O'Neil R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.58 | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .340 | 7.24 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 26 | +1.66 | 2.90 | 115 | 87 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 87 |
| Billy Seidl R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 86 |
| Ryan Vanderhei R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.26 | 14.6% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.56 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 39 | -1.70 | 3.56 | 130 | 86 |
| Ronnie Muck R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 15.8% | 15.2% | 1.3% | .318 | 6.18 | 11.9% | -1.0% | 16 | +1.78 | 3.36 | 137 | 86 |
| Michael Mertz R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.12 | 16.1% | 13.9% | 2.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 133 | 86 |
| José A. Váldez R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.64 | 15.3% | 15.3% | 1.6% | .279 | 4.38 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 167 | -0.26 | 4.02 | 328 | 86 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.27 | 15.5% | 17.2% | 2.4% | .237 | 5.45 | 13.6% | -1.7% | 68 | +0.18 | 5.27 | 124 | 85 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.18 | 18.0% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .278 | 4.55 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 107 | -0.63 | 3.94 | 189 | 85 |
| Jonathan Teaney R 2025 · 6.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.06 | 16.4% | 15.7% | 4.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 108 | 85 |
| Tanner Duncan R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.45 | 17.5% | 14.8% | 3.6% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 123 | 85 |
| Johendí Jiminian R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.45 | 11.5% | 14.0% | 2.8% | .300 | 4.85 | 13.9% | 3.6% | 164 | -0.60 | 3.93 | 419 | 84 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.50 | 19.8% | 15.3% | 2.1% | .283 | 4.49 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 139 | -0.01 | 3.34 | 252 | 84 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.40 | 15.1% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .229 | 4.26 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 150 | -1.14 | 3.63 | 239 | 84 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .237 | 5.05 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.46 | 4.59 | 120 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 16.8% | 13.2% | 1.12 | 5.35 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |