Josi Novas — OGILVIE

Josi NovasSS Columbia Fireflies

Age 21 R/R 6'4" / 180 lbs A HR -5%BB +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.1 · 2031

wRC+†33

AVG/OBP/SLG.165 / .226 / .271

PA302

HR6

SB5

K%44

BB%6

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

20→20

PWR

35→35

SPD

45→45

EYE

35↘25

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.1peak

2031

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$0.5M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$-5M	-$9M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL KC Glass	157	143	17	6	2	3	11	82	1	7	2	.119	.187	.252	.439	.133	.233	52	7	.192	5	-17	+1	+0	+2	+4	-1.0
2023	18	ROK	ACL Royals	135	119	23	3	0	2	15	60	0	8	3	.193	.284	.269	.552	.076	.362	44	11	.256	54	-7	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
2024	19	ROK	ACL Royals	173	161	17	4	1	3	6	108	5	4	1	.106	.163	.199	.362	.093	.275	62	3	.151	-26	-25	+0	+0	+2	+5	-1.8
2025	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	308	286	26	6	0	6	13	174	6	7	3	.091	.148	.175	.322	.084	.185	56	4	.143	-32	-46	+0	+0	+3	+9	-3.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	KC	302	277	46	9	1	6	18	134	4	5	1	.166	.227	.271	.498	.105	.286	44	6	.228	33	-23	+1	+0	+3	+9	-1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	22	MLB 11%	KC	355	323	57	11	1	8	24	147	5	6	2	.176	.244	.291	.535	.115	.287	41	7	.246	46	-22	+0	+0	+4	+10	-0.7
2028	23	MLB 28%	KC	431	391	73	14	2	11	31	170	6	8	2	.187	.257	.317	.574	.130	.288	39	7	.257	55	-22	+1	+0	+5	+12	-0.4
2029	24	MLB 45%	KC	481	436	83	16	2	13	36	184	6	8	2	.190	.262	.326	.587	.135	.289	38	7	.265	61	-21	+1	+0	+5	+14	-0.2
2030	25	MLB 60%	KC	508	456	88	17	2	14	40	192	7	9	2	.193	.268	.331	.600	.138	.290	38	8	.269	64	-20	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.0
2031	26	MLB 77%	KC	523	469	91	17	2	15	42	198	7	9	2	.194	.270	.335	.605	.141	.291	38	8	.271	66	-20	+1	+0	+6	+15	0.1
2032	27	MLB 92%	KC	527	472	91	17	2	15	43	200	7	9	2	.193	.270	.333	.603	.140	.291	38	8	.271	66	-20	+1	+0	+6	+15	0.1
2033	28	MLB	KC	526	471	91	17	2	15	43	200	7	8	2	.193	.271	.333	.604	.140	.290	38	8	.270	65	-21	+1	-1	+6	+15	-0.0
2034	29	MLB	KC	518	463	88	17	2	14	43	199	7	7	1	.190	.269	.326	.595	.136	.289	38	8	.268	63	-22	+1	-1	+6	+15	-0.2
2035	30	MLB	KC	508	454	86	16	2	14	42	197	7	7	1	.189	.268	.326	.594	.137	.287	39	8	.265	61	-22	+1	-2	+5	+14	-0.4
2036	31	MLB	KC	495	445	83	16	2	13	41	194	6	5	0	.187	.264	.319	.583	.133	.285	39	8	.261	58	-24	+1	-3	+5	+14	-0.6
2037	32	MLB	KC	477	429	77	15	1	12	39	189	6	5	0	.179	.257	.303	.560	.124	.284	40	8	.256	54	-25	+1	-4	+5	+14	-0.9
2038	33	MLB	KC	448	404	71	13	1	11	36	181	5	4	0	.176	.252	.295	.546	.119	.282	40	8	.251	50	-25	+1	-4	+5	+13	-1.1
2039	34	MLB	KC	402	362	62	12	1	9	32	165	5	4	0	.171	.248	.285	.533	.113	.280	41	8	.245	45	-25	+1	-5	+4	+11	-1.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7274	6561	1170	226	26	184	555	2974	97	120	26	.178	.253	.305	.557	.127	.286	41	8	.251	51	-407	+14	-20	+78	+206	-13.1
/ 162G	—			650	586	104	20	2	16	50	266	9	11	2	.177	.253	.300	.553	.123	.286	41	8	.251	51	-36	+1	-2	+7	+18	-1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL KC Glass	157	136	30	13	3	4	18	57	1	7	2	.221	.316	.449	.765	.228	.338	36	11	.333	113	+2	+1	—	—	+4	0.7
2023	18	ROK	ACL Royals	135	111	36	5	0	3	23	42	0	8	3	.324	.440	.450	.891	.126	.493	31	17	.400	165	+10	+0	—	—	+4	1.4
2024	19	ROK	ACL Royals	173	158	30	8	1	5	9	80	5	4	1	.190	.256	.348	.604	.158	.338	46	5	.270	65	-7	+0	—	—	+5	-0.2
2025	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	308	279	42	10	0	9	20	121	6	7	3	.151	.223	.283	.506	.133	.219	39	6	.230	34	-23	+0	—	—	+9	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josi Novas (OGILVIE)	21	20	35	45	25	.165/.226/.271	.106	.286	6	5	44%	6%	33	-1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	34	39→45	45→50	36	.174/.218/.256	.082	.253	7	7	34%	5%	23	-3.6	.191/.228/.286	.095	.265	7	9	29%	4%	35	-2.8	.233/.289/.308	.075	.313	4	8	25%	7%	63	-0.4
✕Adinso Reyes 2023 · A	21	39	44→45	41→40	30	.180/.235/.290	.110	.344	13	4	49%	6%	40	-2.4	.194/.245/.297	.103	.365	10	5	46%	6%	46	-2.0	.163/.207/.258	.095	.320	9	4	50%	5%	15	-1.1
✕Alex Lavisky 2012 · A	21	38	44→45	45→30	30	.190/.228/.304	.114	.312	12	5	42%	4%	40	-2.4	.200/.245/.305	.105	.279	11	3	31%	5%	48	-1.9	.197/.242/.277	.080	.248	9	1	24%	4%	36	-0.9
✕Alexander Mojica 2023 · A	20	35	42→45	47→40	40	.173/.252/.271	.099	.283	11	3	40%	8%	43	-2.2	.195/.277/.315	.120	.320	12	5	39%	9%	66	-0.6	.181/.278/.317	.136	.292	13	3	39%	10%	63	-0.3
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	40	44→55	39	.185/.250/.273	.088	.268	9	9	33%	6%	43	-2.2	.200/.257/.289	.089	.277	6	11	28%	6%	49	-1.8	.197/.256/.288	.091	.265	4	15	26%	6%	45	-0.8
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→45	45→40	34	.177/.225/.258	.082	.279	7	4	38%	5%	27	-3.3	.181/.235/.260	.079	.301	7	5	40%	6%	32	-3.0	.113/.162/.125	.012	.213	0	0	44%	5%	-37	-1.5
✕Freuddy Batista 2021 · A	21	39	42→50	47→40	35	.190/.245/.292	.102	.299	9	4	38%	6%	44	-2.1	.207/.272/.355	.148	.299	16	6	35%	7%	73	-0.1	.200/.269/.352	.152	.288	16	5	34%	6%	68	-0.2
✕Leandro Santana 2018 · A	21	38→31	41→45	43→40	35	.187/.239/.279	.092	.302	9	4	40%	6%	38	-2.6	.188/.236/.277	.089	.290	9	5	36%	6%	37	-2.7	.164/.212/.241	.077	.247	8	4	36%	5%	15	-3.0
✕Julian Leon 2017 · A	21	37	44→45	40→30	33	.188/.239/.298	.110	.298	12	2	40%	5%	44	-2.1	.190/.266/.308	.118	.302	13	2	39%	8%	59	-1.1	.168/.267/.285	.117	.263	14	0	38%	10%	53	-0.6
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2010 · A	21	33	41→45	41→50	41	.168/.252/.259	.091	.262	9	8	37%	8%	41	-2.3	.197/.275/.307	.110	.307	11	5	36%	9%	63	-0.9	.204/.303/.338	.134	.292	14	2	32%	11%	83	+0.2
✕Payton Henry 2018 · A	21	40→31	41→45	46→30	38	.191/.255/.294	.102	.304	8	4	38%	7%	50	-1.7	.187/.253/.289	.102	.316	10	2	41%	6%	48	-1.9	.246/.293/.382	.135	.322	19	1	29%	4%	83	+0.2
✕Braulio Vasquez 2021 · A	22	40	39→40	44→65	37	.193/.250/.274	.080	.298	7	7	36%	6%	42	-2.3	.205/.278/.298	.093	.301	7	29	32%	7%	61	-1.0	.200/.277/.293	.093	.287	7	42	30%	7%	55	-0.6
✕Jase Bowen 2022 · A	21	37→40	42→45	53→55	35	.184/.244/.282	.097	.281	10	12	37%	5%	43	-2.2	.196/.251/.317	.121	.287	14	16	35%	5%	54	-1.4	.198/.249/.325	.127	.276	15	22	33%	5%	52	-1.2
✕Fabian Pertuz 2022 · A	21	43→35	39→40	45→55	34	.204/.247/.284	.080	.314	7	8	36%	4%	43	-2.2	.182/.228/.273	.091	.274	8	11	35%	5%	32	-3.0	.162/.209/.251	.089	.243	9	12	36%	4%	16	-2.4
✕Sundrendy Windster 2010 · A	21	36	42→45	43→30	37	.180/.240/.282	.102	.280	10	4	38%	6%	40	-2.4	.197/.259/.318	.121	.307	11	6	37%	7%	58	-1.2	.210/.285/.395	.185	.291	17	6	32%	9%	84	+0.1
✕Carlos De La Cruz 2021 · A	21	36→44	41→50	43→45	29	.177/.218/.272	.094	.314	10	6	45%	4%	27	-3.3	.193/.249/.318	.125	.320	15	6	42%	6%	53	-1.5	.211/.266/.351	.140	.319	17	5	38%	5%	66	-0.5
✕Jose Carlos Urena 2016 · A	21	38	45	48→30	36	.191/.246/.315	.124	.288	12	5	37%	6%	51	-1.7	.210/.264/.318	.108	.325	12	3	37%	6%	59	-1.1	.188/.254/.298	.110	.290	16	0	39%	7%	50	-0.6
✕Maikol Escotto 2023 · A	21	39	41→45	47→50	36	.186/.250/.279	.093	.312	9	14	41%	7%	43	-2.2	.180/.225/.281	.101	.273	11	14	37%	5%	33	-2.9	.170/.209/.268	.099	.241	12	18	35%	4%	21	-1.8
✕Osiris Johnson 2022 · A	21	36	44→40	50	38	.185/.240/.296	.111	.269	12	7	35%	6%	43	-2.2	.192/.243/.286	.094	.269	10	11	31%	6%	42	-2.3	.184/.232/.263	.079	.250	9	15	29%	5%	29	-1.4
✕Pablo Aliendo 2022 · A	21	39	39→55	45	38	.187/.262/.267	.080	.297	7	7	37%	6%	46	-2.0	.206/.270/.329	.123	.302	14	5	35%	6%	66	-0.6	.198/.266/.346	.148	.288	18	5	36%	6%	65	-0.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)