Marvin Alcantara

SS Portland Sea Dogs

Age 22 R/R 5'10" / 157 lbs AA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #818MiLBFA 2034

ETA2029FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	AABOS	357	.226/.294/.298	2	4	51	—	.220/.269/.271
2025	20	A+BOS	131	.271/.344/.331	1	4	59	—	.244/.290/.293
2026	21	AABOS	306	.238/.294/.368	6	15	67	—	.230/.274/.344
2027PROJ2% MLB	22	MLBBOS	6	.222/.268/.304	0	0	56	-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBBOS	136	.227/.275/.324	2	3	64	-0.0
2029PROJ47% MLB	24	MLBBOS	206	.231/.281/.337	3	5	69	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Whiff%86

K%83

Z-Con%76

Speed62

ISO38

Chase%34

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 77%

CompsJuan Mora (age 21) · Luke Williams (age 22) · Alex Mooney (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .268 / .304

PA6

HR0

K%17

BB%5

BABIP272

ISO77

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 32 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT32

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE48

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

DEFENSE60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.8M		$3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	224	189	57	15	0	1	29	33	5	14	2	302	408	397	805	95	359	15	13	368	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	Salem Red Sox	—	83	74	15	1	0	1	7	27	1	6	0	203	280	257	537	54	298	33	8	250	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	176	150	36	7	0	1	23	35	2	6	5	240	349	307	655	67	304	20	13	306	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	456	423	105	10	3	3	28	103	4	13	3	248	301	307	608	59	321	23	6	278	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	357	319	72	15	1	2	31	58	0	4	2	226	294	298	592	72	263	16	9	268	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Greenville Drive	—	131	118	32	4	0	1	11	17	2	4	3	271	344	331	674	59	310	13	8	311	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	306	277	66	16	1	6	20	56	2	15	3	238	294	368	663	130	270	18	7	291	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	—	224	196	38	8	0	1	22	40	5	14	2	194	291	250	541	56	232	18	10	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	83	76	13	1	0	1	5	37	1	6	0	171	232	224	455	53	291	45	6	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	176	159	27	4	0	1	14	51	2	6	5	170	246	214	460	44	236	29	8	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	456	431	87	7	2	2	20	148	4	13	3	202	244	241	485	39	301	32	4	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	357	328	72	12	1	1	22	72	0	4	2	220	269	271	540	52	264	20	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	131	123	30	3	0	1	6	24	2	4	3	244	290	293	583	49	290	18	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	306	282	65	15	1	5	15	68	2	15	3	230	274	344	618	113	268	22	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	—	224	196	38	8	0	1	22	40	5	14	2	194	291	250	541	56	237	18	10	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	—	224	189	57	15	0	1	29	33	5	14	2	302	408	397	805	95	359	15	13	368	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	259	235	39	5	0	1	19	88	3	12	5	166	237	200	437	34	257	34	7	206	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	259	224	51	8	0	2	30	62	3	12	5	228	327	290	617	63	302	24	12	288	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	456	431	87	7	2	2	20	148	4	13	3	202	244	241	485	39	301	32	4	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	—	456	423	105	10	3	3	28	103	4	13	3	248	301	307	608	59	321	23	6	278	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	488	451	101	15	1	2	28	96	2	8	5	224	272	275	547	51	275	20	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA RAW	2 teams	—	488	437	104	19	1	3	42	75	2	8	5	238	308	307	614	69	276	15	9	279	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	306	282	65	15	1	5	15	68	2	15	3	230	274	344	618	113	278	22	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	306	277	66	16	1	6	20	56	2	15	3	238	294	368	663	130	270	18	7	291	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	—	224	195	38	8	0	1	22	40	5	14	2	195	291	251	543	56	232	18	10	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	259	235	39	5	0	1	19	88	3	12	5	166	237	200	437	34	254	34	7	206	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	456	429	87	7	2	2	20	148	4	13	3	203	244	242	486	40	301	32	4	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	488	455	101	15	1	2	28	96	2	8	5	222	272	273	545	51	271	20	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	306	286	65	15	1	5	15	68	2	15	3	227	274	339	613	112	268	22	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	456	429	87	7	2	2	20	148	4	13	3	203	244	242	486	40	301	32	4	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	488	455	101	15	1	2	28	96	2	8	5	222	272	273	545	51	271	20	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	306	286	65	15	1	5	15	68	2	15	3	227	274	339	613	112	268	22	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BOS	2%	416	389	83	15	1	4	22	86	2	9	3	215	261	294	555	79	263	21	5	251	56	-22	+1	+2	+4	+9	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	BOS	2%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	222	268	304	571	82	272	17	0	258	56	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BOS	35%	386	359	78	14	1	5	22	78	2	9	3	221	269	314	583	93	265	20	6	262	64	-17	+1	+3	+4	+8	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	BOS	47%	443	411	93	17	2	7	26	89	3	10	3	225	275	327	602	102	267	20	6	270	69	-16	+1	+4	+5	+10	0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	BOS	52%	471	437	100	18	2	9	28	95	3	11	3	227	278	335	614	108	268	20	6	275	72	-16	+1	+4	+5	+10	0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	488	452	103	19	2	9	30	99	3	11	3	228	281	339	620	111	269	20	6	278	74	-15	+1	+4	+5	+11	0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	492	455	104	19	2	10	31	101	3	10	3	228	282	340	622	112	270	21	6	279	75	-15	+1	+4	+5	+11	0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	490	453	103	19	2	9	31	102	3	9	3	226	280	336	616	110	269	21	6	276	73	-16	+1	+3	+5	+11	0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	482	446	100	18	2	9	30	101	3	7	3	224	277	330	607	106	268	21	6	273	71	-17	+0	+3	+5	+10	0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	BOS	52%	473	439	97	18	1	8	29	101	2	6	2	221	274	323	597	102	267	21	6	268	68	-18	+0	+2	+5	+10	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	BOS	35%	136	126	29	6	0	2	8	28	1	3	1	227	275	324	599	96	274	21	6	269	64	-6	+0	+1	+1	+3	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	BOS	47%	206	191	44	9	1	3	12	41	1	5	1	231	281	337	618	105	276	20	6	277	69	-8	+1	+2	+2	+4	0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	BOS	52%	244	226	52	10	1	4	15	49	1	5	2	233	285	345	630	111	277	20	6	282	72	-8	+0	+2	+3	+5	0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	265	245	57	11	1	5	16	54	2	6	2	234	287	349	636	114	278	20	6	284	74	-8	+0	+2	+3	+6	0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	267	246	58	12	1	5	17	55	2	6	2	234	288	350	638	115	279	21	6	285	75	-8	+0	+2	+3	+6	0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	266	245	57	11	1	5	17	55	2	5	2	233	286	345	632	113	278	21	6	283	73	-9	+0	+2	+3	+6	0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	256	237	55	11	1	5	16	54	1	4	1	230	284	340	623	109	277	21	6	279	71	-9	+0	+1	+3	+6	0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	BOS	52%	248	230	52	10	1	4	15	53	1	3	1	228	280	333	613	105	276	21	6	275	68	-10	+0	+1	+3	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1888	1746	404	80	7	33	116	389	11	37	12	231	284	342	625	111	279	21	6	280	63	-65	+3	+14	+20	+41	1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	139	28	2	11	40	134	4	13	4	231	284	339	623	108	279	21	6	280	63	-22	+1	+5	+7	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5778	5345	1172	204	19	80	348	1272	40	142	43	219	272	309	582	90	271	22	6	261	63	-146	+6	+29	+43	+88	2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	601	132	23	2	9	39	143	4	16	5	220	271	309	581	90	272	22	6	261	63	-23	+1	+5	+7	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.9	1,894	34	37	226	275	333	+20	+16	1.0	1.1
/162	664	12	13	+7.1	+5.6	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Andres Thomas'85-'90 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,185 PA	3.3	2,185	42	22	234*	256*	361*	+23	+24	0.5	0.5
/162	664	13	7	+7.1	+7.3	0.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Marvin Alcantara (OGILVIE)	22	23→32	25→38	57	48	213/259/291	78	263	3	7	21%	5%	56	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	40	39→45	53→55	52	192/277/280	88	229	6	14	19%	8%	61	-1.5	221/287/329	108	296	9	10	27%	6%	75	-0.5	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Luke Williams 2019 · A	22	41→44	38→45	50→65	42	199/251/269	70	259	6	15	25%	5%	47	-2.5	210/270/306	96	280	7	19	26%	7%	63	-1.3	229/291/325	96	311	8	37	27%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Alex Mooney 2024 · A	22	41→39	39→40	53→55	44	196/263/283	87	261	6	12	26%	6%	56	-1.9	190/263/289	99	265	8	27	30%	7%	58	-1.7	182/255/278	96	255	8	30	30%	7%	51	-1.8
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/293/300	81	280	8	4	23%	7%	72	-0.7	211/298/265	54	265	5	1	21%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Marco Guzman 2017 · A	22	42	37→50	52→50	49	197/250/272	75	227	3	7	15%	6%	47	-2.5	225/264/319	94	308	6	8	27%	5%	63	-1.3	238/273/350	112	330	7	9	29%	5%	72	-0.2
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	194/232/294	100	263	8	10	29%	4%	46	-2.6	197/236/287	90	278	6	9	30%	5%	45	-2.7	236/292/311	74	314	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕John Rhodes 2023 · AA	22	43→37	41→45	58→50	47	208/286/313	105	274	8	16	26%	8%	72	-0.7	190/258/293	103	266	10	9	31%	7%	57	-1.8	173/241/264	91	242	10	7	31%	7%	41	-2.2
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2021 · A	22	43	36→45	50→40	46	202/265/271	69	260	4	5	23%	7%	53	-2.1	217/264/312	95	267	7	4	21%	5%	62	-1.4	233/269/347	114	277	11	0	20%	4%	71	-0.4
✕Lolo Sanchez 2021 · A	22	45	39→45	54→55	45	215/279/308	93	262	6	21	20%	6%	68	-1.0	214/290/322	108	258	12	18	21%	8%	76	-0.4	204/284/298	95	242	11	17	20%	9%	66	-0.7
✕Chris Roller 2018 · A	21	37	37→45	53→55	45	177/253/254	77	242	4	12	27%	8%	46	-2.6	204/272/316	112	294	8	11	31%	7%	67	-1.1	189/255/293	104	275	7	15	32%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Will Piwnica-Worms 2013 · A	23	40	36→40	52→50	47	191/257/261	70	242	3	7	22%	7%	49	-2.4	205/279/287	82	275	6	8	26%	8%	63	-1.4	201/280/279	79	269	6	8	26%	8%	60	-0.8
✕Erlin Cerda 2016 · A	22	42	35→40	52→55	48	193/266/259	66	239	1	14	19%	7%	52	-2.2	194/243/262	68	287	2	9	31%	5%	42	-2.9	162/195/205	44	254	0	8	35%	3%	7	-1.3
✕Grae Kessinger 2021 · A	23	43→30	39→45	50	47	208/276/293	85	264	7	12	23%	8%	63	-1.4	192/262/298	106	257	12	15	29%	8%	59	-1.6	186/264/278	92	250	9	8	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Efrain Contreras 2009 · A	22	42	40	52→55	45	204/269/294	91	238	7	13	18%	5%	61	-1.5	198/253/276	78	281	6	8	30%	5%	50	-2.3	182/235/246	64	272	6	7	33%	5%	34	-1.4
✕Imbewer Alvarez 2008 · A	22	43	38→40	52→55	50	203/279/280	77	258	5	18	22%	8%	61	-1.5	191/249/259	68	294	4	11	34%	5%	45	-2.7	132/178/179	47	218	4	5	40%	2%	-1	-1.1
✕Melvin Santana 2014 · A	22	39	36→40	50	46	182/239/254	73	226	2	11	20%	6%	39	-3.1	197/245/272	75	270	3	11	26%	5%	45	-2.7	189/224/255	66	253	0	19	24%	4%	32	-0.7
✕Kenedy Corona 2022 · A	22	43→42	39→50	52→55	39	208/262/296	88	288	6	20	29%	5%	58	-1.7	210/270/340	130	291	14	23	31%	7%	72	-0.7	201/268/328	126	276	14	27	31%	7%	65	-0.9
✕Corey Joyce 2022 · AA	23	40	39→40	54→50	39	192/262/271	79	300	7	14	36%	7%	53	-2.1	208/308/324	116	294	11	13	30%	10%	84	+0.1	214/316/317	103	300	9	14	28%	10%	82	+0.0
✕Glenn Santiago 2022 · A	21	42	39→40	51→45	49	202/274/291	88	241	7	11	19%	7%	62	-1.4	201/261/287	86	290	7	8	31%	7%	56	-1.9	185/249/263	77	271	7	8	32%	7%	44	-1.1
✕Zach Wilson 2013 · A	22	42	38→45	53→45	41	202/243/282	80	260	4	7	24%	5%	47	-2.5	211/258/309	98	289	7	6	28%	6%	59	-1.6	206/248/317	111	293	10	0	32%	5%	57	-1.0

Marvin Alcantara

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps