Alfredo Velásquez3B Frederick Keys
Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 153 lbs A+ HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
2026 ROS PROJECTION103 act + 217 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†44
AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .260 / .298
PA217
HR1
SB6
K%17
BB%3
BABIP279
ISO62
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -21.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-22BATRUN: -0.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.1 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +9.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+9REPTotal WAR: -1.20-1.2WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.3+$3M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 20
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT50
scouting grade only
POWER20
scouting grade only
EYE20
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $1M +$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202217 ROKDSL BAL Black — 181164 38631 8187 143 232296323619 91252 104 272 66 — — — — — —
202217 ROKDSL BAL Black — 181159 47641 13127 143 296374403777 107311 77 348 125 — — — — — —
202318 ROKFCL Orioles — 9590 15401 4241 70 167211244455 78215 254 201 12 — — — — — —
202318 ROKFCL Orioles — 9587 20502 7161 70 230295356651 126261 177 294 83 — — — — — —
202419 A3 teams — 219209 42520 6491 163 201227244471 43259 223 206 16 — — — — — —
202419 A3 teams — 219205 50820 10371 163 244282302585 59294 175 262 59 — — — — — —
202520 A3 teams — 330318 72531 7491 186 226245270516 44263 152 224 30 — — — — — —
202520 A3 teams — 330314 74531 10371 186 236261280541 45263 113 242 43 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD21 A+BAL — 10393 21211 4191 23 226265301566 75274 184 229 33 -8 -1 +0 +0 +3 -0.5
YTD21 A+BAL — 10391 22211 6141 23 242296319615 77276 146 267 62 -4 -1 +0 +0 +3 -0.2
ROS21 A+BAL 0% 217208 49621 6361 63 236260298559 62271 173 242 44 -14 +0 +0 +1 +6 -0.7
ROS21 MLBBAL 0% 11 0000 000 00 274 00 241 43 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
FULL21 A+BAL — 10494 21211 4191 23 223263298560 74270 184 229 33 -8 -1 +0 +0 +3 -0.5
TOT21 A+BAL — 320301 70832 10552 86 233262299561 66278 173 238 40 -22 -1 +0 +1 +9 -1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202722 MLBBAL 35% 418399 941135 14692 104 236265316581 80273 173 260 57 -20 +0 +0 +1 +12 -0.6
202823 MLBBAL 49% 476452 1091447 18783 125 241275336611 95275 164 272 67 -18 +0 +0 +2 +13 -0.2
202924 MLBBAL 53% 513484 1181549 21853 135 244280347627 103277 174 280 72 -16 +1 +0 +2 +15 0.1
203025 MLBBAL 55% 532500 12316410 23884 136 246285354639 108277 174 284 75 -15 +0 +0 +2 +15 0.2
203126 MLBBAL 56% 542509 12616411 24894 136 248287360646 112277 164 285 76 -15 +0 +0 +2 +15 0.3
202722 MLBBAL 35% 144137 33412 5241 41 241273328601 88276 173 260 57 -7 +0 +0 +1 +4 -0.2
202823 MLBBAL 49% 231219 54724 9381 62 247279352631 105279 164 272 66 -9 +0 +0 +1 +7 -0.1
202924 MLBBAL 53% 271256 63825 11452 73 246283352634 105280 174 279 72 -9 +0 +0 +1 +8 0.0
203025 MLBBAL 55% 291274 68926 13482 73 248287361649 113281 164 283 75 -8 +0 +0 +1 +8 0.1
203126 MLBBAL 56% 302284 70926 13502 73 246284356640 109281 174 284 76 -8 +0 +0 +1 +9 0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 12401171 28837923 512058 3112 246282352634 106279 174 278 71 -41 +1 +0 +4 +35 -0.0
/ 162G— — 650614 15119512 271074 166 246282352634 106279 164 278 71 -22 +1 +0 +2 +18 -0.0
Career— — 35233333 786982946 13158527 12241 236270324594 88272 174 263 60 -161 +8 +0 +13 +100 -4.1
/ 162G— — 650615 1441858 241085 238 234269319587 85270 174 263 60 -30 +1 +0 +2 +18 -0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202217 ROKDSL BAL Black — 181159 47641 13127 143 296374403777 107311 77 348 125 +5 +2 — — +5 1.2
202318 ROKFCL Orioles — 9587 20502 7161 70 230295356651 126261 177 294 83 -2 +1 — — +3 0.2
202419 AABowie Baysox — 3131 6100 050 10 194194226419 32231 160 187 2 -3 +0 — — +1 -0.2
202419 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 155143 35610 9270 113 245289301590 56297 176 264 60 -7 +1 — — +4 -0.2
202419 ROKFCL Orioles — 3331 9110 151 40 290333387720 97346 153 323 106 +0 +1 — — +1 0.2
202520 AAChesapeake Baysox — 8481 21100 3120 10 259286272557 12304 144 256 54 -4 +0 — — +2 -0.2
202520 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 5553 8200 180 20 151167189355 38178 152 158 -21 -8 +0 — — +2 -0.6
202520 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 191180 45231 6171 156 250277311588 61268 93 260 57 -9 +1 — — +5 -0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19
career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA
62,4383130244299357+9+265.45.4
/16266488+2.4+7.21.5pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16
career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA
62,3474631241304367-5+73.83.8
/162664139-1.3+1.91.1pk7: 4
#3Hernán Pérezlast yr '19
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,811 PA
61,8114569252281387-0+123.73.7
/1626641625-0.0+4.51.3pk7: 4
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04
career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA
51,9142978242303347-6+62.72.7
/1626641027-2.0+2.21.0pk7: 3
#5Jose Castillolast yr '08
career totals — 5 seasons, 2,059 PA
52,0593913254296379+7-141.91.9
/162664134+2.4-4.50.6pk7: 2
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04
career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA
52,2563590259290356-9+31.31.3
/1626641026-2.8+0.90.4pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons
21,2412230245278347+4+10.00.2
/1626641216+2.4+0.50.0pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Alfredo Velásquez (OGILVIE) 21 50 20 60 20 233/262/299 66278 28 17% 3% 40 -1.2 ————————— —————————
✕Yensy Perez
2008 · A 		21 48 35→30 55 41 221/283/286 64281 117 21% 4% 59 -1.1 208/265/280 72282 417 26% 4% 50 -1.7 161/198/2024122643330%2%-2-0.9
✕Luis Jean
2016 · A 		21 50 35→30 52→55 44 233/273/289 56275 221 16% 4% 54 -1.4 217/258/272 55266 218 18% 4% 43 -2.2 209/248/2483825502117%4%29-1.2
✕Dixon Mavares
2007 · A 		21 46 35→30 51→50 44 215/285/275 60277 111 22% 6% 57 -1.2 220/294/288 68262 310 16% 8% 65 -0.7 223/303/2836025331112%8%65-0.2
✕Lorenzo Cedrola
2019 · A 		21 50→58 37→45 50 38 236/268/314 78287 316 19% 2% 59 -1.1 243/283/328 85289 515 17% 3% 69 -0.4 249/294/35310429281617%3%76+0.1
✕Alex Mercedes
2013 · A 		21 48 36→40 54→55 50 222/275/291 69250 217 12% 6% 56 -1.3 223/279/307 84261 215 14% 6% 62 -0.9 226/284/3229626111613%6%67-0.2
✕Isaias Velasquez
2009 · A 		21 47→57 34→40 54→55 46 221/279/276 55282 219 21% 6% 54 -1.4 244/294/324 80310 216 21% 6% 72 -0.2 253/305/3398531721919%6%77+0.1
✕Grenny Cumana
2017 · A 		21 50 36→30 49→50 44 230/269/295 65259 314 13% 3% 54 -1.4 239/272/307 68277 412 15% 3% 59 -1.1 251/283/316652834212%3%60-0.3
✕Randy Romero
2021 · A 		21 50 37→40 60 46 236/278/312 77269 322 14% 5% 63 -0.9 202/245/265 63275 317 26% 5% 37 -2.7 177/216/2204324512227%4%11-1.1
✕Guillermo Granadillo
2018 · A 		21 48 37→30 52→55 46 225/278/297 71275 419 19% 6% 59 -1.1 215/267/274 59284 314 24% 6% 48 -1.9 210/260/2453528011624%5%34-0.8
✕Luke Williams
2018 · A 		21 39→46 35→45 55→60 41 188/231/243 55251 318 26% 5% 25 -3.5 199/255/286 87268 718 27% 6% 47 -1.9 230/291/360130317134230%7%79+0.2
✕Gorge Munoz
2017 · A 		21 43 38→40 50→55 42 205/260/282 78258 517 22% 5% 48 -1.9 205/257/290 85298 710 32% 5% 49 -1.8 185/231/261772879937%3%28-0.8
✕Dom Abbadessa
2019 · A 		21 51 36→40 51→55 40 238/284/310 72305 315 22% 4% 65 -0.7 211/271/287 76317 311 32% 6% 54 -1.4 142/226/195532570940%8%11-0.8
✕Calten Daal
2015 · A 		21 53→56 35→30 52→50 40 247/277/309 62313 311 22% 4% 60 -1.0 252/288/303 51327 315 22% 4% 64 -0.8 266/295/2963034811523%4%61-0.5
✕Ivan Castillo
2016 · A 		21 45→54 37→40 57→50 38 211/245/292 80268 314 22% 3% 43 -2.2 215/254/299 84266 413 20% 4% 49 -1.8 246/281/3429629551118%3%69-0.3
✕Nick Allen
2019 · A 		20 40→50 34→40 52→50 42 190/239/246 55244 214 22% 5% 29 -3.2 214/261/304 90273 614 23% 5% 54 -1.4 242/303/3167428961617%8%72-0.1
✕Joe Munoz
2007 · A 		21 48 35→30 54→55 46 219/300/279 61282 122 21% 6% 66 -0.6 201/259/265 64263 211 23% 5% 43 -2.2 174/218/225512272723%3%13-1.0
✕Nick Liles
2010 · A 		23 47→57 35→30 55→50 41 219/255/285 65264 216 18% 4% 46 -2.0 259/294/325 66308 113 15% 4% 72 -0.2 268/305/3296131811215%5%75+0.0
✕Franklin Rollin
2016 · A 		20 48 36→40 50→55 43 225/286/293 68271 213 17% 4% 63 -0.9 228/273/319 91280 518 20% 4% 63 -0.9 220/262/3159527272221%4%53-0.9
✕Yonathan Daza
2015 · A 		21 50→56 38→40 48→50 41 238/277/314 76279 614 17% 4% 63 -0.9 249/278/318 69314 310 21% 3% 63 -0.8 255/302/330753054617%6%74-0.0
✕Gerson Manzanillo
2007 · A 		21 47 36→30 58→50 43 221/268/291 70277 216 20% 5% 53 -1.5 211/255/278 67290 312 27% 5% 43 -2.2 253/283/3105729731315%3%59-0.5