Alfredo Velásquez
3B Frederick Keys| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | AA/A/ROK2 orgs | 219 | .244/.282/.302 | 0 | 16 | 30 | — | .207/.236/.255 |
| 2025 | 20 | AA/A+/A2 orgs | 330 | .236/.261/.280 | 1 | 18 | 38 | — | .226/.245/.270 |
| 2026 | 21 | AA/A+/ABAL | 116 | .245/.300/.324 | 1 | 4 | 43 | — | .225/.261/.298 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBBAL | 1 | .228/.256/.297 | 0 | 0 | 51 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBBAL | 65 | .234/.264/.318 | 1 | 1 | 60 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBBAL | 126 | .238/.271/.335 | 2 | 3 | 66 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL BAL Black | — | 181 | 159 | 47 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 296 | 374 | 403 | 777 | 107 | 311 | 7 | 7 | 348 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 95 | 87 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 230 | 295 | 356 | 651 | 126 | 261 | 17 | 7 | 294 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 31 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 194 | 226 | 419 | 32 | 231 | 16 | 0 | 187 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 155 | 143 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 245 | 289 | 301 | 590 | 56 | 297 | 17 | 6 | 264 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 33 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 290 | 333 | 387 | 720 | 97 | 346 | 15 | 3 | 323 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 84 | 81 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 259 | 286 | 272 | 557 | 12 | 304 | 14 | 4 | 256 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 55 | 53 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 151 | 167 | 189 | 355 | 38 | 178 | 15 | 2 | 158 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 191 | 180 | 45 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 250 | 277 | 311 | 588 | 61 | 268 | 9 | 3 | 260 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 34 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 107 | 167 | 107 | 274 | 143 | 21 | 3 | 122 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 55 | 49 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 327 | 377 | 449 | 826 | 122 | 333 | 5 | 7 | 355 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 27 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 296 | 320 | 616 | 80 | 286 | 15 | 7 | 281 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Black | — | 181 | 163 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 202 | 274 | 282 | 556 | 80 | 206 | 8 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 95 | 90 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 167 | 211 | 244 | 455 | 78 | 209 | 25 | 4 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 31 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 194 | 226 | 419 | 32 | 227 | 19 | 0 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 155 | 146 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 205 | 237 | 247 | 483 | 41 | 264 | 23 | 4 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 33 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 226 | 273 | 323 | 595 | 97 | 278 | 21 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 84 | 82 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 268 | 286 | 280 | 566 | 12 | 326 | 17 | 2 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 55 | 53 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 132 | 148 | 170 | 318 | 38 | 157 | 18 | 2 | 129 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 191 | 183 | 43 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 235 | 255 | 295 | 550 | 60 | 258 | 12 | 2 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 34 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 107 | 167 | 107 | 274 | 144 | 26 | 3 | 123 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 55 | 51 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 294 | 321 | 412 | 733 | 118 | 290 | 7 | 4 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 27 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 259 | 308 | 567 | 77 | 254 | 19 | 4 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Black | — | 181 | 163 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 202 | 274 | 282 | 556 | 80 | 215 | 8 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL BAL Black | — | 181 | 159 | 47 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 296 | 374 | 403 | 777 | 107 | 311 | 7 | 7 | 348 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 95 | 90 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 167 | 211 | 244 | 455 | 78 | 215 | 25 | 4 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Orioles | — | 95 | 87 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 230 | 295 | 356 | 651 | 126 | 261 | 17 | 7 | 294 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 219 | 208 | 44 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 212 | 241 | 260 | 500 | 48 | 273 | 22 | 3 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 219 | 205 | 50 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 244 | 282 | 302 | 585 | 59 | 294 | 17 | 5 | 262 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 330 | 318 | 72 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 48 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 226 | 245 | 267 | 513 | 41 | 262 | 15 | 2 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 330 | 314 | 74 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 236 | 261 | 280 | 541 | 45 | 263 | 11 | 3 | 242 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 116 | 104 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 221 | 264 | 288 | 552 | 67 | 259 | 16 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 116 | 102 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 245 | 300 | 324 | 624 | 78 | 276 | 12 | 6 | 270 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Black | — | 181 | 163 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 202 | 274 | 282 | 556 | 80 | 206 | 8 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 95 | 90 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 167 | 211 | 244 | 455 | 78 | 209 | 25 | 4 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 219 | 209 | 44 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 211 | 241 | 258 | 499 | 48 | 261 | 22 | 3 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 330 | 319 | 72 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 48 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 226 | 245 | 266 | 512 | 41 | 258 | 15 | 2 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 116 | 109 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 211 | 264 | 275 | 539 | 64 | 239 | 16 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 219 | 209 | 44 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 211 | 241 | 258 | 499 | 48 | 261 | 22 | 3 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 330 | 319 | 72 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 48 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 226 | 245 | 266 | 512 | 41 | 258 | 15 | 2 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 116 | 109 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 211 | 264 | 275 | 539 | 64 | 239 | 16 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | BAL | 0% | 280 | 268 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 53 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 225 | 253 | 292 | 545 | 67 | 274 | 19 | 3 | 244 | 51 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | BAL | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 256 | 297 | 553 | 69 | 277 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 51 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | BAL | 35% | 189 | 180 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 230 | 261 | 313 | 574 | 82 | 275 | 19 | 3 | 256 | 60 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | BAL | 46% | 272 | 258 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 51 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 234 | 268 | 328 | 596 | 94 | 277 | 19 | 4 | 266 | 66 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | BAL | 52% | 324 | 306 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 61 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 236 | 272 | 339 | 611 | 102 | 278 | 19 | 4 | 272 | 70 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 54% | 357 | 336 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 68 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 237 | 275 | 344 | 620 | 107 | 278 | 19 | 4 | 276 | 73 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 54% | 368 | 346 | 82 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 71 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 237 | 276 | 345 | 621 | 108 | 278 | 19 | 4 | 277 | 73 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | BAL | 35% | 65 | 62 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 234 | 264 | 318 | 583 | 85 | 279 | 18 | 3 | 260 | 60 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | BAL | 46% | 126 | 120 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 271 | 335 | 606 | 97 | 281 | 19 | 3 | 270 | 66 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | BAL | 52% | 167 | 158 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 240 | 276 | 346 | 621 | 105 | 282 | 19 | 4 | 276 | 70 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 54% | 194 | 182 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 241 | 279 | 352 | 630 | 111 | 282 | 19 | 4 | 280 | 73 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 54% | 200 | 187 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 39 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 240 | 280 | 352 | 632 | 112 | 282 | 20 | 4 | 281 | 73 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 752 | 709 | 172 | 31 | 4 | 13 | 29 | 144 | 7 | 17 | 6 | 243 | 279 | 353 | 632 | 110 | 286 | 19 | 4 | 276 | 57 | -27 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +16 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 613 | 148 | 27 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 124 | 6 | 15 | 5 | 241 | 278 | 349 | 627 | 108 | 285 | 19 | 4 | 276 | 57 | -23 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2578 | 2430 | 553 | 85 | 19 | 28 | 95 | 465 | 24 | 96 | 27 | 228 | 264 | 313 | 576 | 85 | 269 | 18 | 4 | 252 | 57 | -62 | +3 | +0 | +6 | +35 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 613 | 139 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 117 | 6 | 24 | 7 | 227 | 263 | 312 | 575 | 85 | 268 | 18 | 4 | 252 | 57 | -25 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Frederick Keys · 55 PAwOBA .346 → .303 (−43)K% 5.5% → 7.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.45% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 7.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 4.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 24.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 1.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 1.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.94% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .346 → .303; ISO .122 → .112; BABIP .333 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 34 PAwOBA .119 → .123 (+4)K% 20.6% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.59% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 2.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 2.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.042 | 14.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .119 → .123; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .143 → .144. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 27 PAwOBA .274 → .224 (−50)K% 14.8% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | — | 17.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | — | 7.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .274 → .224; ISO .080 → .064; BABIP .286 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 191 PAwOBA .256 → .239 (−17)K% 8.9% → 12.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.90% | ÷0.993 | ×1.360 | — | — | 12.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.14% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 2.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.52% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.93% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | ×1.015 | 22.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.23% | ÷0.898 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×1.015 | 1.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.84% | ÷0.904 | ×0.910 | ×1.020 | ×1.015 | 1.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.61% | ÷0.899 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.55% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 100, 2B 80, 3B 81, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .256 → .239; ISO .061 → .060; BABIP .268 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 84 PAwOBA .249 → .253 (+4)K% 14.3% → 16.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.044 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.57% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 2.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.99% | ÷0.957 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×1.050 | 31.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.45% | ÷0.970 | ×0.860 | ×1.011 | ×1.050 | 1.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.011 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.248 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .249 → .253; ISO .012 → .011; BABIP .304 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 55 PAwOBA .154 → .129 (−25)K% 14.5% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.55% | ÷1.013 | ×1.310 | — | — | 18.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.82% | ÷0.944 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 1.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.990 | ×0.870 | ×1.010 | ×1.027 | 12.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.44% | ÷1.010 | ×0.780 | ×1.010 | ×1.027 | 3.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.091 | ×0.850 | ×1.010 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.229 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 118, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .154 → .129; ISO .038 → .030; BABIP .178 → .157. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 155 PAwOBA .261 → .217 (−43)K% 17.4% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.42% | ÷1.035 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.81% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 4.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×1.030 | 22.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.17% | ÷1.216 | ×0.830 | ×0.972 | ×1.030 | 3.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷0.943 | ×0.910 | ×0.972 | ×1.030 | 0.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.952 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 143, 3B 89, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .261 → .217; ISO .056 → .041; BABIP .297 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Orioles · 33 PAwOBA .315 → .235 (−80)K% 15.2% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.15% | ÷1.036 | ×1.440 | — | — | 21.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.03% | ÷0.972 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 1.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.03% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.92% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 22.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.901 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.016 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 80, 3B 103, K 107, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .315 → .235; ISO .097 → .068; BABIP .346 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).