Ernesto Mercedes

P St. Lucie Mets

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ANYM	18	13	65	5.54	3.33	29.2%	19.7%	—	K 21.6% · BB 23.2% · FIP 4.50
2025	21	MIX2 levels	24	5	44	3.27	4.10	27.1%	18.8%	—	K 20.1% · BB 21.9% · FIP 5.44
2026	22	MIX2 levels	36	0	47	5.59	2.86	35.3%	15.8%	—	K 26.0% · BB 18.7% · FIP 4.31
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYM	50	0	52	5.61	5.61	23.0%	20.0%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBNYM	22	0	23	5.32	5.22	23.6%	17.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBNYM	34	0	36	5.08	4.97	23.9%	15.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control20Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsBlake Holub (age 23) · James Acuna (age 23) · Will Varmette (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 123

ERA5.61

FIP5.61

K%23.0%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%3.0%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	14	9	36	167	41	29	1	64%	2.6	16.7%	21.7%	-5.0%	0.9%	3.72	4.92	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	14	9	36	167	41	29	1	64%	2.6	24.6%	17.4%	7.2%	0.6%	3.72	3.60	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	8	33	154	40	24	0	67%	2.8	16.8%	17.2%	-0.4%	0.0%	3.24	3.86	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	8	33	154	40	24	0	67%	2.8	26.0%	15.6%	10.4%	0.0%	3.24	2.86	—
2024	20	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	18	13	65	305	89	60	1	72%	3.6	21.6%	23.2%	-1.6%	0.5%	5.54	4.50	—
2024	20	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	18	13	65	305	89	60	1	72%	3.6	21.6%	23.2%	-1.6%	0.5%	5.54	4.50	—
2024	20	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	18	13	65	305	89	60	1	72%	3.6	29.2%	19.7%	9.5%	0.3%	5.54	3.33	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	5	44	207	56	39	3	21%	1.8	20.1%	21.9%	-1.9%	2.3%	3.27	5.44	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	5	44	207	56	39	3	21%	1.8	20.1%	21.9%	-1.9%	2.3%	3.27	5.44	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	5	44	207	56	39	3	21%	1.8	27.1%	18.8%	8.2%	1.4%	3.27	4.10	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	47	215	76	34	3	0%	1.3	26.0%	18.7%	7.3%	1.9%	5.59	4.31	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	47	215	76	34	3	0%	1.3	26.0%	18.7%	7.3%	1.9%	5.59	4.31	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	47	215	76	34	3	0%	1.3	35.3%	15.8%	19.5%	1.4%	5.59	2.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYM	50	0	52	220	50	44	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	20.0%	3.0%	2.8%	5.61	5.61	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	51	0	54	227	53	39	6	0%	1.1	23.6%	17.4%	6.2%	2.8%	5.32	5.22	-0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	52	0	54	230	55	36	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	15.7%	8.3%	2.8%	5.08	4.97	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	22	0	23	97	23	17	3	0%	1.0	23.6%	17.4%	6.2%	2.8%	5.32	5.22	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	34	0	36	152	36	24	4	0%	1.1	23.9%	15.7%	8.3%	2.8%	5.08	4.97	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	249	59	41	7	0%	1.1	23.8%	16.3%	7.5%	2.8%	5.17	4.69	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	139	24	0%	1.1	23.8%	16.3%	7.5%	2.8%	5.17	4.69	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		104	35	225	1048	217	219	12	34%	2.2	20.7%	20.9%	-0.2%	1.1%	4.47	4.62	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		92	31	200	930	193	195	10	34%	2.2	20.7%	20.9%	-0.2%	1.1%	4.47	4.62	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ernesto Mercedes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.61	23.0%	20.0%	2.8%	—	5.09	23.8%	7.3%	108	-0.52	—	—	—
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	85
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	83
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	83
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	82
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	82
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	79
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	79
Cole McDonald R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	26.5%	19.8%	3.1%	.403	3.87	23.6%	11.6%	93	-1.20	2.81	153	79
Cole Aker R 2019 · 5.60 FIP	22	SW	5.60	19.5%	20.6%	2.8%	.239	6.17	12.0%	-9.9%	28	+0.57	3.60	147	78
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	78
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	78
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	78
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	77
Dylan King R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	22	SW	4.43	21.4%	20.5%	1.0%	.233	4.79	27.1%	17.7%	90	+0.36	3.78	121	77
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	77
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	77
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	77
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	76
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	76
Jake Eddington R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	23	SW	5.02	18.8%	24.1%	0.8%	.316	4.83	16.6%	-1.5%	105	-0.19	4.70	135	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	23.5%	17.6%	1.08	5.33
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*