Jancel Santana — OGILVIE

Jancel SantanaSS FCL Red Sox

Age 20 S/R 6'0" / 157 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .269 / .275

PA4

HR0

K%30

BB%8

ISO78

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	16	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	179	152	28	7	1	2	18	56	8	12	2	184	303	283	586	99	277	31	10	276	73	-6	+2	—	—	+4	-0.0
2023	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	188	155	32	4	2	1	26	40	5	6	4	206	339	277	616	71	267	21	14	292	84	-4	-0	—	—	+4	0.0
2024	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	45	34	4	0	0	0	9	20	2	2	0	118	333	118	451		286	44	20	253	57	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	—	179	159	17	4	1	1	11	84	8	12	2	107	202	164	366	57	197	47	6	164	-3	-22	+2	—	—	+4	-1.7
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	188	165	24	3	1	1	16	59	5	6	4	145	242	194	436	48	204	31	9	199	21	-18	-0	—	—	+4	-1.4
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	45	37	2	0	0	0	6	28	2	2	0	54	222	54	276		236	62	13	156	-8	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	—	179	159	17	4	1	1	11	84	8	12	2	107	202	164	366	57	216	47	6	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Red	—	179	152	28	7	1	2	18	56	8	12	2	184	303	283	586	99	277	31	10	276	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	188	165	24	3	1	1	16	59	5	6	4	145	242	194	436	48	215	31	9	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	188	155	32	4	2	1	26	40	5	6	4	206	339	277	616	71	267	21	14	292	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	45	37	2	0	0	0	6	28	2	2	0	54	222	54	276		222	62	13	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	45	34	4	0	0	0	9	20	2	2	0	118	333	118	451		286	44	20	253	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	—	179	158	17	4	1	1	11	84	8	12	2	108	202	165	367	57	197	47	6	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	188	165	24	3	1	1	16	59	5	6	4	145	242	194	436	48	204	31	9	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	45	37	2	0	0	0	6	28	2	2	0	54	222	54	276		236	62	13	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	188	165	24	3	1	1	16	59	5	6	4	145	242	194	436	48	204	31	9	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	45	37	2	0	0	0	6	28	2	2	0	54	222	54	276		236	62	13	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	20	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		285	25	0	252	57	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	116	104	22	3	1	2	9	34	2	2	0	212	287	317	604	106	287	29	8	265	66	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	BOS	48%	261	234	50	8	2	4	21	74	4	4	1	214	290	316	606	103	288	28	8	274	72	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	365	328	72	12	3	7	29	102	5	5	1	220	293	338	631	119	289	28	8	280	76	-10	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	436	392	86	14	3	9	35	121	6	6	2	219	293	339	633	120	290	28	8	285	79	-11	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	BOS	56%	478	430	94	15	3	10	39	133	6	7	2	219	293	337	630	119	291	28	8	287	80	-11	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	BOS	56%	502	449	99	16	3	11	41	139	7	7	2	220	296	343	639	122	290	28	8	288	81	-11	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	514	460	101	16	4	11	42	143	7	7	2	220	295	343	638	124	290	28	8	288	81	-12	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	516	461	100	16	3	11	43	144	7	7	2	217	294	336	630	119	290	28	8	287	81	-12	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	511	456	99	16	3	11	43	144	7	6	2	217	294	338	632	121	289	28	8	286	79	-13	+0	-1	+5	+11	0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	503	449	97	16	3	10	42	143	7	6	1	216	293	332	625	116	288	28	8	283	78	-13	+1	-2	+5	+11	0.2
2037	31	MLB MLE	BOS	52%	491	441	94	15	3	10	41	141	6	5	1	213	289	329	618	116	286	29	8	279	75	-15	+1	-3	+5	+11	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	40	36	7	1	0	1	3	12	1	1	0	194	275	306	581	111	291	30	8	257	66	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	BOS	48%	126	113	24	4	1	2	10	36	2	2	0	212	288	319	607	106	293	29	8	266	72	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	198	177	39	7	1	4	16	56	3	3	1	220	296	339	635	119	294	28	8	272	76	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	242	217	48	8	1	5	20	67	3	3	1	221	296	336	632	115	295	28	8	276	79	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	BOS	56%	268	240	53	9	2	5	22	74	4	4	1	221	297	338	634	117	295	28	8	278	80	-6	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	BOS	56%	282	253	57	10	2	6	23	78	4	4	1	225	300	352	652	126	295	28	8	280	81	-6	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	284	255	57	10	2	6	23	79	4	4	1	224	298	349	647	125	295	28	8	280	81	-6	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	283	253	57	10	2	6	24	79	4	4	1	225	302	352	654	126	295	28	8	279	81	-7	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	273	244	55	9	2	6	23	77	4	3	1	225	303	352	655	127	294	28	8	277	79	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	265	237	51	9	1	5	22	75	4	3	1	215	293	325	618	110	293	28	8	275	78	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.1
2037	31	MLB CTX	BOS	52%	256	230	49	8	1	5	21	74	3	3	1	213	287	322	609	109	291	29	8	271	75	-8	+0	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2517	2255	497	85	15	51	207	707	36	34	9	220	296	339	635	119	296	28	8	276	73	-65	+3	-4	+27	+55	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	128	22	4	13	53	183	9	9	2	220	295	338	633	119	296	28	8	276	73	-17	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5109	4569	958	154	33	98	418	1490	79	82	22	210	287	322	609	112	286	29	8	275	73	-122	+6	-7	+50	+102	3.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	122	20	4	12	53	190	10	10	3	210	287	320	607	110	288	29	8	275	73	-17	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.9	2,562	51	34	218	290	336	+27	+21	3.3	3.2
/162	664	13	9	+7.1	+5.4	0.9	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jancel Santana (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	197/269/275	78	285	0	1	30%	8%	57	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	42→47	41→50	50	44	203/259/304	102	267	7	10	26%	7%	59	-1.7	221/283/344	123	281	11	10	24%	7%	77	-0.3	231/280/377	146	276	15	12	22%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Allan Castro 2023 · A	20	38→44	40→45	54→50	40	185/249/285	100	275	6	9	34%	7%	51	-2.2	203/274/314	111	281	9	13	29%	8%	68	-1.0	202/276/313	110	274	9	14	28%	9%	65	-1.0
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	41	195/245/269	75	266	5	9	28%	6%	45	-2.7	236/283/325	89	313	8	10	26%	6%	72	-0.7	247/301/337	90	312	4	24	21%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Junior Valera 2013 · A	20	42	36→40	51→60	45	196/266/265	69	275	2	10	28%	8%	53	-2.1	226/289/310	84	293	3	18	22%	8%	71	-0.8	245/308/338	94	307	3	28	20%	8%	80	-0.0
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→48	38→50	49→40	44	204/275/284	80	281	6	6	28%	7%	61	-1.5	210/273/293	83	267	6	4	22%	7%	62	-1.4	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	40→44	39→45	53→50	43	195/254/284	89	269	5	13	28%	7%	53	-2.1	216/286/322	106	302	9	13	29%	9%	74	-0.6	216/290/325	109	297	11	14	29%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Riley Unroe 2016 · A	20	43→48	36→45	44→55	44	205/262/267	62	280	4	8	27%	7%	51	-2.2	194/260/260	66	281	4	12	30%	8%	49	-2.4	221/306/334	113	298	11	26	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Jean Batista 2012 · A	20	43	40→55	50→45	36	208/238/300	92	279	7	8	28%	4%	49	-2.4	219/244/339	120	282	10	7	26%	3%	61	-1.5	224/238/371	147	277	12	6	24%	1%	63	-0.4
✕Alejandro Flores 2016 · A	20	37	39→50	45→40	43	182/248/265	83	263	7	5	32%	8%	46	-2.6	201/260/300	99	294	8	6	32%	7%	58	-1.7	200/255/329	129	272	11	4	29%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	38→41	41→50	48→50	45	182/267/286	104	281	8	8	35%	9%	59	-1.7	201/262/332	131	290	13	10	34%	6%	67	-1.1	219/271/366	148	290	19	9	30%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Brandon Valenzuela 2021 · A	20	43→52	35→45	48→40	49	196/281/253	57	286	2	4	30%	10%	57	-1.8	211/287/313	102	309	9	3	32%	9%	72	-0.7	200/281/304	104	289	10	2	32%	9%	65	-0.8
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→46	40→50	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	63	-1.3	225/292/371	146	302	16	5	30%	7%	87	+0.4	222/288/367	145	291	16	4	28%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Jose Marquez 2018 · A	20	41	37→50	44→50	40	195/244/271	76	263	4	4	27%	5%	45	-2.7	217/261/322	105	296	8	7	28%	5%	63	-1.3	200/247/320	120	277	13	10	32%	5%	55	-0.6
✕Raymel Flores 2015 · A	20	39	36→45	49→50	42	182/261/255	73	288	2	10	34%	8%	49	-2.4	199/251/276	77	302	6	10	34%	6%	49	-2.4	187/239/252	64	286	4	11	34%	5%	36	-1.3
✕Robel García 2013 · A	20	36→37	40→50	48→40	41	178/243/275	97	270	7	6	35%	7%	47	-2.6	190/257/280	90	286	6	6	33%	8%	53	-2.1	189/259/371	183	269	25	2	39%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Miguel Gómez 2013 · A	20	42→52	38→50	49→40	41	199/257/279	80	273	4	6	28%	6%	53	-2.1	221/266/318	97	290	7	5	25%	5%	64	-1.3	271/289/403	131	306	13	1	16%	2%	89	+0.4
✕Sergio Alcántara 2016 · A	20	39→49	34→45	46→50	46	184/254/235	51	259	2	6	28%	8%	41	-3.0	225/272/284	59	291	2	8	22%	6%	58	-1.7	210/288/320	110	286	12	4	29%	9%	71	-0.4
✕Darrien Miller 2021 · A	20	42→41	36→45	47→45	43	198/272/267	70	271	3	8	27%	6%	56	-1.9	199/300/314	115	273	13	6	30%	9%	79	-0.2	175/316/278	103	239	9	4	27%	12%	76	-0.2
✕Thomas Milone 2015 · A	20	41→45	36→45	51→55	38	194/246/266	72	293	3	10	33%	6%	45	-2.7	197/251/260	63	283	3	13	29%	6%	45	-2.7	237/293/354	117	331	7	17	29%	6%	79	-0.1
✕John Tolisano 2009 · A	20	38→46	42→45	50	44	189/251/293	104	258	9	6	30%	8%	53	-2.1	196/258/314	118	267	12	6	29%	8%	61	-1.5	202/268/330	129	264	12	12	27%	8%	65	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps