Jancel Santana — OGILVIE

Jancel SantanaSS FCL Red Sox

Age 20 S/R 6'0" / 157 lbs ROK H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj PA

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .269 / .275

PA45

HR0

K%30

BB%8

ISO79

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	16	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	179	160	16	4	1	1	10	88	8	12	2	100	191	156	347	56	211	49	6	155	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	179	152	28	7	1	2	18	56	8	12	2	184	303	283	586	99	277	31	10	276	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	188	166	24	3	1	1	15	60	5	6	4	145	237	193	429	48	215	32	8	198	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	188	155	32	4	2	1	26	40	5	6	4	206	339	277	616	71	267	21	14	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	45	37	2	0	0	0	6	27	2	2	0	54	222	54	276		200	60	13	162	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	45	34	4	0	0	0	9	20	2	2	0	118	333	118	451		286	44	20	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	BOS	—	45	41	7	1	0	0	3	14	1	1	0	171	244	195	440	24	285	31	7	252	51	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	BOS	34%	116	104	23	4	1	2	9	34	2	2	0	221	296	337	632	115	287	29	8	265	61	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	BOS	48%	261	234	50	8	2	4	21	75	4	4	1	214	290	316	606	103	288	29	8	274	68	-9	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2029	23	MLB	BOS	54%	365	328	71	12	2	7	29	103	5	5	1	216	290	329	619	113	290	28	8	280	73	-11	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.4
2030	24	MLB	BOS	55%	436	392	86	14	3	9	35	122	6	6	2	219	293	339	633	120	291	28	8	284	76	-12	+0	+0	+5	+12	0.6
2031	25	MLB	BOS	56%	478	430	93	15	3	10	39	133	6	7	2	216	291	335	625	119	291	28	8	287	77	-12	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.7
2032	26	MLB	BOS	56%	502	449	99	16	3	11	41	140	7	7	2	220	296	343	639	122	291	28	8	288	79	-12	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.8
2033	27	MLB	BOS	55%	514	460	101	17	3	11	42	144	7	7	2	220	295	341	636	122	291	28	8	288	79	-12	+1	+0	+6	+15	0.8
2034	28	MLB	BOS	59%	516	461	100	16	3	11	43	145	7	7	2	217	294	336	630	119	290	28	8	287	78	-13	+1	-1	+6	+15	0.7
2027	21	MLB	BOS	34%	40	36	7	1	0	1	3	12	1	1	0	194	275	306	581	111	292	30	8	259	56	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	BOS	48%	126	113	24	4	1	2	10	36	2	2	0	212	288	319	607	106	294	29	8	268	63	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.0
2029	23	MLB	BOS	54%	198	177	39	7	1	4	16	56	3	3	1	220	296	339	635	119	295	28	8	274	68	-7	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.1
2030	24	MLB	BOS	55%	242	218	49	8	2	5	19	68	3	3	1	225	296	349	644	124	297	28	8	278	71	-8	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.2
2031	25	MLB	BOS	56%	268	240	54	9	2	6	22	75	4	4	1	225	301	354	655	129	297	28	8	280	73	-8	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.3
2032	26	MLB	BOS	56%	282	253	57	10	2	6	23	79	4	4	1	225	300	352	652	126	297	28	8	282	74	-8	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.3
2033	27	MLB	BOS	55%	284	255	57	10	2	6	23	79	4	4	1	224	298	349	647	125	297	28	8	282	74	-8	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.3
2034	28	MLB	BOS	59%	305	273	61	10	2	7	25	86	4	4	1	223	298	352	650	128	296	28	8	281	73	-9	+0	-0	+3	+9	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1745	1565	348	59	12	37	141	491	25	25	6	222	297	346	643	124	298	28	8	279	71	-57	+3	-0	+19	+49	1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	129	22	4	14	53	183	9	9	2	221	296	345	641	123	296	28	8	279	71	-21	+1	-0	+7	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	3645	3262	672	110	22	67	293	1085	60	66	18	206	284	315	598	109	284	30	8	272	66	-140	+6	-1	+39	+103	0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	120	20	4	12	52	193	11	12	3	206	284	316	600	110	284	30	8	272	66	-25	+1	-0	+7	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	16	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	179	152	28	7	1	2	18	56	8	12	2	184	303	283	586	99	277	31	10	276	70	-6	+2	—	—	+5	0.1
2023	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	188	155	32	4	2	1	26	40	5	6	4	206	339	277	616	71	267	21	14	292	82	-4	-0	—	—	+5	0.1
2024	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	45	34	4	0	0	0	9	20	2	2	0	118	333	118	451		286	44	20	253	52	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,790	36	25	219	290	337	+19	+15	2.3	2.4
	/162	664	13	9	219	290	337	+7.1	+5.6	0.9	pk7: 2
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jancel Santana (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	197/269/275	78	285	0	1	30%	8%	51	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	41→47	41→50	49→50	44	202/257/305	102	265	8	10	26%	7%	53	-1.5	223/285/351	128	285	12	10	25%	7%	77	+0.1	226/291/358	132	282	13	10	24%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Alejandro Flores 2016 · A	20	37	39→50	45→40	43	182/248/265	83	263	7	5	32%	8%	39	-2.5	203/261/310	107	295	9	6	32%	7%	56	-1.3	202/257/342	140	271	13	4	30%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	40	193/243/266	73	268	5	9	29%	6%	37	-2.7	229/276/310	81	309	7	10	26%	6%	62	-0.9	247/301/337	90	315	4	24	22%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Junior Valera 2013 · A	20	42	36→40	51→60	45	196/266/265	69	275	2	10	28%	8%	46	-2.0	226/289/310	84	293	3	18	22%	8%	67	-0.5	245/308/338	94	307	3	28	20%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Allan Castro 2023 · A	20	38→43	40→45	54→55	39	184/247/283	100	276	6	9	34%	6%	43	-2.2	200/271/309	109	281	9	13	30%	8%	60	-1.0	198/272/305	108	273	9	14	29%	9%	57	-1.0
✕Jean Batista 2012 · A	20	43	40→55	50→45	36	208/238/300	92	279	7	8	28%	4%	42	-2.3	219/243/339	120	283	10	7	26%	3%	55	-1.4	223/237/369	146	276	12	6	24%	1%	58	-0.3
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	41→42	39→45	53→50	42	196/255/285	89	270	5	13	28%	7%	46	-2.0	211/283/320	109	300	10	13	30%	9%	69	-0.4	209/285/321	112	292	12	14	30%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	37→41	41→55	48→50	44	180/262/280	101	277	8	8	36%	9%	50	-1.8	198/258/332	134	287	14	10	34%	6%	61	-1.0	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Alan Schoenberger 2009 · A	20	39	36→45	46→45	43	184/249/253	69	277	2	6	32%	8%	37	-2.7	196/250/284	88	297	6	7	34%	6%	44	-2.1	188/236/280	92	275	7	5	33%	5%	34	-1.4
✕John Tolisano 2009 · A	20	38→47	42→50	50	44	189/251/293	104	258	9	6	30%	8%	47	-1.9	196/258/316	120	267	12	6	30%	8%	56	-1.3	204/271/341	137	267	14	12	28%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Riley Unroe 2016 · A	20	42→48	36→50	44→55	43	202/257/261	60	279	4	8	28%	7%	41	-2.3	188/253/253	65	276	4	12	31%	8%	38	-2.6	227/311/367	139	295	15	26	27%	10%	89	+0.5
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→55	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	46	-2.0	207/248/334	127	286	13	6	31%	5%	57	-1.2	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Robel García 2013 · A	20	36→37	40→50	48→40	40	177/241/272	95	268	7	6	35%	7%	38	-2.6	189/257/279	90	284	6	6	33%	8%	46	-2.0	192/262/383	192	272	27	2	39%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Jose Marquez 2018 · A	20	41	37→50	44→50	40	195/244/271	76	263	4	4	27%	5%	38	-2.6	217/261/322	105	295	8	7	28%	5%	59	-1.1	199/246/317	119	277	12	10	32%	5%	48	-0.6
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→45	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	47	-1.9	190/259/265	75	304	6	15	36%	7%	44	-2.1	192/271/270	78	293	5	32	33%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Raymel Flores 2015 · A	20	39	36→45	49→50	42	182/261/255	73	288	2	10	34%	8%	43	-2.2	200/253/278	78	302	6	10	33%	6%	43	-2.2	189/241/254	65	287	4	11	34%	5%	29	-1.2
✕Logan Wagner 2023 · A	19	43→31	36→60	48→50	42	203/264/271	68	294	4	8	31%	7%	47	-1.9	193/285/298	105	300	9	9	35%	10%	65	-0.7	173/266/319	146	258	17	10	37%	9%	60	-0.5
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	39→45	47→45	45	181/267/268	87	282	7	6	36%	9%	49	-1.8	190/265/267	77	299	5	6	35%	9%	47	-1.9	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0
✕Luis Suisbel 2023 · A	20	36→45	40→50	46→45	35	170/259/256	86	291	7	6	40%	6%	44	-2.1	203/280/342	139	312	17	5	38%	7%	74	-0.1	188/262/329	141	283	19	4	39%	7%	62	-0.7
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	43→42	38→50	48→45	41	206/270/283	78	285	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	214/277/356	142	321	16	4	36%	7%	76	+0.0	203/271/349	146	304	18	4	37%	7%	69	-0.3