Bryan Andrade
SS Stockton Ports| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKOAK | 42 | .262/.262/.310 | 0 | 0 | -4 | — | .190/.190/.238 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROKOAK | 244 | .255/.354/.341 | 2 | 3 | 55 | — | .206/.279/.271 |
| 2026 | 21 | AOAK | 460 | .245/.328/.381 | 10 | 13 | 58 | — | .204/.269/.309 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBOAK | 543 | .202/.265/.294 | 7 | 8 | 58 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBOAK | 143 | .213/.276/.319 | 2 | 2 | 64 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBOAK | 214 | .217/.281/.330 | 4 | 3 | 68 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Athletics | — | 123 | 101 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 314 | 218 | 531 | 20 | 233 | 15 | 11 | 251 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Athletics | — | 111 | 96 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 291 | 188 | 478 | 228 | 16 | 10 | 236 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 42 | 42 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 262 | 262 | 310 | 571 | 48 | 367 | 29 | 0 | 254 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 152 | 129 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 344 | 287 | 631 | 54 | 290 | 18 | 14 | 298 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 92 | 79 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 291 | 371 | 430 | 801 | 139 | 324 | 14 | 10 | 347 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 460 | 404 | 99 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 42 | 99 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 245 | 328 | 381 | 709 | 136 | 296 | 22 | 9 | 317 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 123 | 105 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 229 | 143 | 372 | 10 | 163 | 20 | 7 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 111 | 99 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 209 | 121 | 330 | 147 | 20 | 7 | 156 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 42 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 190 | 238 | 429 | 48 | 295 | 40 | 0 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 152 | 136 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 285 | 250 | 535 | 44 | 275 | 25 | 9 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 92 | 82 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 207 | 270 | 305 | 575 | 98 | 246 | 21 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 460 | 417 | 85 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 135 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 204 | 269 | 309 | 578 | 106 | 267 | 29 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 123 | 105 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 229 | 143 | 372 | 10 | 165 | 20 | 7 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Athletics | — | 123 | 101 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 314 | 218 | 531 | 20 | 233 | 15 | 11 | 251 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 111 | 99 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 209 | 121 | 330 | 154 | 20 | 7 | 156 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Athletics | — | 111 | 96 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 291 | 188 | 478 | 228 | 16 | 10 | 236 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 42 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 190 | 238 | 429 | 48 | 320 | 40 | 0 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Athletics | — | 42 | 42 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 262 | 262 | 310 | 571 | 48 | 367 | 29 | 0 | 254 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 244 | 218 | 46 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 211 | 283 | 280 | 563 | 69 | 272 | 23 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 244 | 208 | 53 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 41 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 255 | 354 | 341 | 696 | 87 | 304 | 17 | 12 | 316 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 460 | 417 | 85 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 135 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 204 | 269 | 309 | 578 | 106 | 275 | 29 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | Stockton Ports | — | 460 | 404 | 99 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 42 | 99 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 245 | 328 | 381 | 709 | 136 | 296 | 22 | 9 | 317 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 123 | 109 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 128 | 229 | 138 | 366 | 9 | 163 | 20 | 7 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 111 | 99 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 209 | 121 | 330 | 147 | 20 | 7 | 156 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 42 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 190 | 238 | 429 | 48 | 295 | 40 | 0 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 244 | 220 | 46 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 209 | 283 | 277 | 561 | 68 | 264 | 23 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 460 | 420 | 85 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 135 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 202 | 269 | 307 | 576 | 105 | 267 | 29 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 42 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 190 | 238 | 429 | 48 | 295 | 40 | 0 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 244 | 220 | 46 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 209 | 283 | 277 | 561 | 68 | 264 | 23 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 460 | 420 | 85 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 135 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 202 | 269 | 307 | 576 | 105 | 267 | 29 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | OAK | 0% | 543 | 496 | 100 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 36 | 151 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 202 | 265 | 294 | 559 | 92 | 272 | 28 | 7 | 254 | 58 | -27 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +12 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | OAK | 34% | 417 | 381 | 79 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 114 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 207 | 271 | 310 | 581 | 103 | 274 | 27 | 7 | 263 | 64 | -18 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | OAK | 46% | 463 | 423 | 88 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 124 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 211 | 276 | 321 | 596 | 110 | 276 | 27 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -17 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | OAK | 52% | 487 | 443 | 93 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 130 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 214 | 279 | 327 | 606 | 114 | 277 | 27 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -17 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +11 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | OAK | 54% | 500 | 454 | 97 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 132 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 215 | 281 | 331 | 612 | 116 | 277 | 26 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | OAK | 54% | 502 | 454 | 98 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 37 | 132 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 216 | 282 | 333 | 614 | 117 | 277 | 26 | 7 | 277 | 74 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | OAK | 54% | 498 | 454 | 97 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 132 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 214 | 280 | 328 | 608 | 114 | 277 | 27 | 7 | 274 | 72 | -17 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +11 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | OAK | 53% | 487 | 444 | 94 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 131 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 212 | 277 | 322 | 600 | 111 | 275 | 27 | 7 | 271 | 69 | -18 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +11 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | OAK | 52% | 475 | 433 | 90 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 129 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 274 | 315 | 589 | 106 | 274 | 27 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -19 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +10 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | OAK | 34% | 143 | 130 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 213 | 276 | 319 | 595 | 106 | 282 | 27 | 7 | 269 | 64 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | OAK | 46% | 214 | 195 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 58 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 217 | 281 | 330 | 611 | 113 | 284 | 27 | 7 | 275 | 68 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | OAK | 52% | 252 | 229 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 67 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 219 | 284 | 337 | 621 | 117 | 285 | 27 | 7 | 279 | 71 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | OAK | 54% | 271 | 247 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 71 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 221 | 286 | 341 | 627 | 120 | 286 | 26 | 7 | 282 | 73 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | OAK | 54% | 272 | 247 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 72 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 221 | 287 | 342 | 629 | 121 | 286 | 26 | 7 | 283 | 74 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | OAK | 54% | 270 | 245 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 72 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 220 | 285 | 337 | 623 | 118 | 285 | 27 | 7 | 280 | 72 | -9 | +1 | -0 | +3 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | OAK | 53% | 259 | 235 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 69 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 217 | 282 | 332 | 614 | 114 | 284 | 27 | 7 | 277 | 69 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | OAK | 52% | 249 | 226 | 49 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 68 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 279 | 324 | 603 | 110 | 282 | 27 | 7 | 272 | 66 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +5 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1930 | 1754 | 383 | 69 | 15 | 35 | 139 | 516 | 22 | 21 | 0 | 218 | 284 | 335 | 619 | 116 | 287 | 27 | 7 | 278 | 64 | -69 | +4 | -2 | +21 | +42 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 129 | 23 | 5 | 12 | 47 | 174 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 218 | 284 | 335 | 619 | 117 | 287 | 27 | 7 | 278 | 64 | -23 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5019 | 4559 | 939 | 147 | 31 | 84 | 353 | 1337 | 62 | 63 | 10 | 206 | 272 | 307 | 579 | 101 | 270 | 27 | 7 | 262 | 64 | -148 | +6 | -4 | +43 | +88 | -1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 122 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 46 | 173 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 207 | 273 | 308 | 582 | 102 | 271 | 27 | 7 | 262 | 64 | -24 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AStockton Ports · 460 PAwOBA .312 → .254 (−58)K% 21.5% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.52% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.91% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×1.015 | 20.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×1.015 | 4.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.993 | ×1.015 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.66% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .312 → .254; ISO .136 → .108; BABIP .296 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AStockton Ports · 152 PAwOBA .291 → .244 (−47)K% 18.4% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.42% | ÷1.011 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.82% | ÷1.029 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 9.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.66% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.75% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×1.030 | 23.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.96% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×1.030 | 3.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.017 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.99% | ÷1.113 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.73% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .291 → .244; ISO .054 → .044; BABIP .290 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Athletics · 92 PAwOBA .349 → .259 (−91)K% 14.1% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.13% | ÷0.983 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.78% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.76% | ÷1.039 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×0.995 | 20.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.020 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.995 | 2.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.995 | 3.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.52% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.27% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 104, 3B 98, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .349 → .259; ISO .139 → .105; BABIP .324 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Athletics · 42 PAwOBA .247 → .163 (−84)K% 28.6% → 41.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.998 | ×1.440 | — | — | 41.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.027 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 26.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.907 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.852 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 105, 2B 125, 3B 81, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .247 → .163; ISO .048 → .031; BABIP .367 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Athletics · 111 PAwOBA .233 → .156 (−77)K% 16.2% → 19.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.22% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.91% | ÷1.030 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.031 | ×0.680 | ×0.972 | ×1.008 | 14.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.138 | ×0.600 | ×0.972 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.972 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.039 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 100, K 99, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .233 → .156; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .228 → .147. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Athletics · 123 PAwOBA .254 → .184 (−70)K% 15.4% → 19.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.45% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.57% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 7.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.25% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.95% | ÷1.004 | ×0.680 | ×1.013 | ×1.022 | 15.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.44% | ÷0.952 | ×0.600 | ×1.013 | ×1.022 | 1.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.600 | ×1.013 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 97, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .254 → .184; ISO .020 → .014; BABIP .233 → .163. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).