Lisnerkin Lantigua

Lisnerkin Lantigua P Daytona Tortugas

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 181 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.4 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%20.8%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2035	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	11	6	32	144	30	16	0	55%	2.9	14.2%	13.9%	0.3%	0.0%	3.90	3.66	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	11	6	32	144	30	16	0	55%	2.9	20.8%	11.1%	9.7%	0.0%	3.90	2.73	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	12	7	33	159	30	19	0	58%	2.8	12.8%	14.9%	-2.1%	0.0%	4.36	3.91	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	12	7	33	159	30	19	0	58%	2.8	12.8%	14.9%	-2.1%	0.0%	4.36	3.91	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	12	7	33	159	30	19	0	58%	2.8	18.9%	11.9%	6.9%	0.0%	4.36	3.01	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	9	0	9	39	11	9	1	0%	1.0	28.2%	23.1%	5.1%	2.6%	3.00	5.05	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	9	0	9	39	11	9	1	0%	1.0	28.2%	23.1%	5.1%	2.6%	3.00	5.05	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	9	0	9	39	11	9	1	0%	1.0	28.2%	23.1%	5.1%	2.6%	3.00	5.10	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	13	0	28	115	29	10	2	0%	2.2	17.1%	10.9%	6.3%	1.9%	4.13	4.10	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	13	0	28	115	29	10	2	0%	2.2	17.1%	10.9%	6.3%	1.9%	4.13	4.10	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	13	0	28	115	29	10	2	0%	2.2	25.2%	8.7%	16.5%	1.7%	4.13	3.03	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	24	1	67	317	61	54	5	4%	2.8	14.2%	20.1%	-5.9%	2.1%	6.82	5.57	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	24	1	67	317	61	54	5	4%	2.8	14.2%	20.1%	-5.9%	2.1%	6.82	5.57	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	CIN	24	1	67	317	61	54	5	4%	2.8	19.2%	17.0%	2.2%	1.6%	6.82	4.50	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CIN	66	0	69	292	64	29	8	0%	1.0	22.0%	10.0%	12.0%	2.9%	4.56	4.48	+0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	CIN	68	0	72	303	69	28	9	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.4%	13.4%	2.9%	4.40	4.31	+0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	CIN	70	0	74	311	73	28	9	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.0%	14.4%	2.8%	4.28	4.20	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	CIN	71	0	74	315	75	28	9	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	2.8%	4.19	4.13	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	CIN	71	0	74	315	75	27	9	0%	1.0	24.0%	8.7%	15.2%	2.8%	4.14	4.11	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	CIN	70	0	73	310	74	27	9	0%	1.0	24.0%	8.8%	15.2%	2.9%	4.14	4.15	+0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	CIN	68	0	71	301	72	27	9	0%	1.0	23.8%	9.0%	14.9%	3.0%	4.20	4.23	+0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	CIN	65	0	68	287	68	26	9	0%	1.0	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	3.1%	4.30	4.36	+0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	CIN	61	0	64	270	63	26	9	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.5%	13.8%	3.3%	4.45	4.54	+0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	CIN	32	0	34	144	32	14	4	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.0%	12.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.61	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	CIN	50	0	52	220	50	21	7	0%	1.0	22.8%	9.4%	13.4%	3.1%	4.53	4.44	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	CIN	58	0	61	258	60	23	8	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.0%	14.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.32	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	CIN	63	0	66	279	66	24	8	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	3.0%	4.31	4.25	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	CIN	65	0	68	287	69	25	9	0%	1.0	24.0%	8.7%	15.2%	3.0%	4.26	4.23	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	CIN	65	0	68	287	69	25	9	0%	1.0	24.0%	8.8%	15.2%	3.1%	4.27	4.28	+0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	CIN	64	0	67	283	67	25	9	0%	1.0	23.8%	9.0%	14.9%	3.2%	4.33	4.36	+0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	CIN	62	0	65	274	65	25	9	0%	1.0	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	3.4%	4.44	4.50	+0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	CIN	58	0	61	258	60	24	9	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.5%	13.8%	3.6%	4.60	4.69	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		515	0	541	2285	537	208	73	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.1%	14.4%	3.2%	4.40	4.01	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	77	27	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.1%	14.4%	3.2%	4.40	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		69	14	170	774	117	129	10	20%	2.5	15.1%	16.7%	-1.6%	1.3%	5.14	4.63	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	16	200	911	137	152	11	20%	2.5	15.1%	16.7%	-1.6%	1.3%	5.14	4.63	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lisnerkin Lantigua (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	20.8%	11.0%	2.9%	—	4.33	22.8%	13.3%	215	-0.40	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	90
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	86
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	83
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	83
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	83
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	83
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	82
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	81
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	81
Enrique De Los Rios R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	16.4%	10.8%	2.4%	.289	3.85	13.6%	8.3%	126	-0.55	3.57	166	81
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	81
Gerlin Rosario R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	21	SU	3.79	20.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.294	4.94	18.1%	5.4%	153	+1.15	3.02	248	81
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	81
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	81
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	81
Ben Madison R 2019 · 3.72 FIP	21	SU	3.72	16.9%	10.0%	1.5%	.268	2.47	31.3%	15.4%	27	-1.25	2.47	183	81
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	80
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	80
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	80
Jake Elliott R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	21	SU	3.82	19.2%	7.1%	2.6%	.353	3.81	18.1%	10.0%	202	-0.01	2.91	354	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	66	23.4%	9.2%	1.14	4.30
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70