Augusto Mendieta

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 190 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2031

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKKC	12	15	3.68	2.69	18.2%	9.1%	—	K 12.4% · BB 11.4% · FIP 3.50
2025	20	MIX2 levels	30	43	3.12	1.37	30.6%	7.0%	—	K 21.7% · BB 8.1% · FIP 2.29
2026	21	MIX2 levels	41	69	4.57	3.59	29.5%	10.4%	—	K 22.5% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.76
2027PROJ	22	MLBKC	35	37	4.65	4.65	22.5%	10.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ50% MLB	23	MLBKC	30	32	4.51	4.44	23.3%	10.0%	0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBKC	44	46	4.39	4.31	23.9%	9.4%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsHeath Holder (age 23) · David Garner (age 22) · Aaron Holiday (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%22.5%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	11	1	14	70	20	7	2	9%	1.3	19.4%	12.5%	6.9%	4.0%	8.79	5.24	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	11	1	14	70	20	7	2	9%	1.3	28.6%	10.0%	18.6%	2.9%	8.79	3.59	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	0	15	66	12	6	0	0%	1.2	12.4%	11.4%	1.0%	0.0%	3.68	3.50	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	0	15	66	12	6	0	0%	1.2	12.4%	11.4%	1.0%	0.0%	3.68	3.50	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	12	0	15	66	12	6	0	0%	1.2	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	3.68	2.69	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	43	186	57	13	0	0%	1.4	21.7%	8.1%	13.6%	0.0%	3.12	2.29	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	43	186	57	13	0	0%	1.4	21.7%	8.1%	13.6%	0.0%	3.12	2.29	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	43	186	57	13	0	0%	1.4	30.6%	7.0%	23.7%	0.0%	3.12	1.37	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	69	298	88	31	9	0%	1.7	22.5%	11.8%	10.7%	3.8%	4.57	4.76	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	69	298	88	31	9	0%	1.7	22.5%	11.8%	10.7%	3.8%	4.57	4.76	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	69	298	88	31	9	0%	1.7	29.5%	10.4%	19.1%	3.0%	4.57	3.59	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	KC	35	0	37	156	35	17	5	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.8%	11.7%	3.1%	4.65	4.65	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	KC	61	0	64	272	63	27	8	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.0%	13.4%	3.0%	4.51	4.44	+0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	KC	63	0	66	279	67	26	8	0%	1.0	23.9%	9.4%	14.4%	3.0%	4.39	4.31	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	KC	64	0	67	282	68	26	8	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	3.0%	4.29	4.23	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	KC	64	0	67	282	69	26	8	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.1%	15.3%	3.0%	4.24	4.21	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	KC	63	0	66	278	68	25	8	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	3.0%	4.25	4.25	+0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	KC	61	0	64	269	65	25	8	0%	1.0	24.3%	9.3%	15.0%	3.1%	4.30	4.33	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	KC	30	0	32	135	32	13	4	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.0%	13.4%	3.0%	4.51	4.44	+0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	KC	44	0	46	194	46	18	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	9.4%	14.4%	3.0%	4.39	4.31	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	KC	51	0	54	228	55	21	7	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	3.0%	4.29	4.23	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	KC	55	0	58	245	60	22	7	0%	1.1	24.4%	9.1%	15.3%	3.0%	4.24	4.21	+0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	KC	56	0	59	249	61	23	8	0%	1.1	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	3.0%	4.25	4.25	+0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	KC	56	0	59	249	60	23	8	0%	1.1	24.3%	9.3%	15.0%	3.1%	4.30	4.33	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		295	0	310	1308	316	122	40	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	3.0%	4.31	3.90	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	204	79	26	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	3.0%	4.31	3.90	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		94	1	141	620	129	67	14	1%	1.5	20.8%	10.7%	10.1%	2.3%	4.46	3.94	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	1	200	877	183	94	20	1%	1.5	20.8%	10.7%	10.1%	2.3%	4.46	3.94	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Augusto Mendieta (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	22.5%	10.8%	3.1%	—	4.33	23.8%	14.3%	197	-0.32	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	93
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	91
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	91
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	91
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	89
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	89
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	89
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	89
Ryan Perry R 2009 · 4.18 FIP	22	SU	4.18	22.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.283	3.87	16.1%	6.9%	100	-0.31	3.59	161	88
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	88
Chris Perez R 2008 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	23.7%	12.4%	2.8%	.269	3.71	22.5%	12.6%	180	-0.51	3.18	379	88
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	88
Andrew Cashner R 2010 · 4.51 FIP	23	SU	4.51	20.2%	10.1%	3.4%	.285	3.30	19.9%	13.0%	221	-1.21	2.94	1,185	88
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	88
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	87
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	87
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	87
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	87
Adam Boucher R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SU	5.02	22.1%	10.3%	4.5%	.321	6.20	16.8%	-7.8%	74	+1.18	4.87	130	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	61	24.0%	9.5%	1.18	4.36
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*