Dalton Rogers

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 26 LHP 5'11" / 172 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #973

ETA2029FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+BOS	21	19	83	5.12	3.39	23.0%	12.9%	—	K 17.7% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.17
2025	24	MIX2 levels	23	16	105	3.09	2.77	28.9%	12.8%	—	K 23.1% · BB 14.1% · FIP 3.47
2026	25	MIX2 levels	21	17	81	5.64	5.58	21.4%	16.0%	—	K 16.9% · BB 17.9% · FIP 6.45
2027PROJ	26	MLBBOS	21	21	125	5.64	5.64	19.2%	16.7%	-1.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBBOS	8	8	46	5.53	5.54	19.5%	15.8%	-0.3
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBBOS	12	12	71	5.49	5.53	19.5%	15.4%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control35Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsBlair Walters (age 26) · Scott DeCecco (age 24) · Justin Marks (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124132vR 140

ERA5.64

FIP5.64

K%19.2%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%2.5%

Proj IP125

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	2	0	2	9	3	2	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	2	0	2	9	3	2	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	97	422	140	61	7	100%	4.2	25.3%	16.7%	8.6%	2.2%	4.84	4.31	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	97	422	140	61	7	100%	4.2	33.2%	14.5%	18.7%	1.7%	4.84	3.04	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	21	19	83	387	89	50	4	90%	3.9	17.7%	14.9%	2.9%	1.2%	5.12	4.17	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	21	19	83	387	89	50	4	90%	3.9	17.7%	14.9%	2.9%	1.2%	5.12	4.17	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	21	19	83	387	89	50	4	90%	3.9	23.0%	12.9%	10.1%	1.0%	5.12	3.39	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	105	447	129	57	4	70%	4.6	23.1%	14.1%	9.0%	1.0%	3.09	3.47	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	105	447	129	57	4	70%	4.6	23.1%	14.1%	9.0%	1.0%	3.09	3.47	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	105	447	129	57	4	70%	4.6	28.9%	12.8%	16.1%	0.9%	3.09	2.77	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	81	374	80	60	14	81%	3.9	16.9%	17.9%	-1.0%	4.6%	5.64	6.45	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	81	374	80	60	14	81%	3.9	16.9%	17.9%	-1.0%	4.6%	5.64	6.45	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	17	81	374	80	60	14	81%	3.9	21.4%	16.0%	5.3%	3.7%	5.64	5.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BOS	21	21	125	528	101	88	16	100%	6.0	19.2%	16.7%	2.5%	3.1%	5.64	5.64	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BOS	21	21	123	520	101	82	16	100%	5.9	19.5%	15.8%	3.6%	3.1%	5.53	5.54	-0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	119	504	99	78	16	100%	6.0	19.5%	15.4%	4.1%	3.2%	5.49	5.53	-0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	114	481	94	73	16	100%	6.0	19.4%	15.2%	4.2%	3.3%	5.53	5.60	-0.9
2031	30	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	107	453	87	69	16	100%	6.0	19.1%	15.3%	3.8%	3.5%	5.64	5.74	-1.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	46	194	38	31	6	100%	5.8	19.5%	15.8%	3.6%	3.1%	5.53	5.54	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	71	300	59	46	10	100%	5.9	19.5%	15.4%	4.1%	3.2%	5.49	5.53	-0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	81	342	66	52	11	100%	5.8	19.4%	15.2%	4.2%	3.3%	5.53	5.60	-0.6
2031	30	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	84	355	68	54	12	100%	6.0	19.1%	15.3%	3.8%	3.5%	5.64	5.74	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	47	282	1190	231	183	39	100%	6.0	19.4%	15.4%	4.0%	3.3%	5.55	5.23	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	130	28	100%	6.0	19.4%	15.4%	4.0%	3.3%	5.55	5.23	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		90	75	368	1639	345	260	36	83%	4.1	21.0%	15.9%	5.2%	2.2%	4.60	4.53	-3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	41	200	892	188	142	19	83%	4.1	21.0%	15.9%	5.2%	2.2%	4.60	4.53	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dalton Rogers (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.64	19.2%	16.7%	3.1%	—	5.56	19.5%	4.0%	356	-0.08	—	—	—
Blair Walters L 2016 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	14.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	262	76
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	74
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	74
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	74
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	72
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	71
Kaz Ishii L 2002 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	20.7%	14.9%	2.9%	.275	4.94	16.1%	2.9%	410	+0.11	4.51	564	70
Mason Green L 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP-	4.80	18.7%	12.6%	3.1%	.307	3.85	18.2%	6.4%	157	-0.95	3.68	450	69
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	69
Bryan Sammons L 2021 · 6.16 FIP	26	SP-	6.16	17.0%	13.4%	5.1%	.276	5.52	20.7%	11.5%	261	-0.64	3.58	688	68
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.78	21.8%	6.9%	51	+0.77	3.51	432	68
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	68
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	67
Tyson Guerrero L 2024 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	18.8%	11.2%	2.9%	.268	5.58	23.9%	8.4%	19	+1.06	4.26	250	66
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	66
Zack Thompson L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	26	SP	4.64	23.7%	12.2%	3.6%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.03	402	66
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	66
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	65
Eddie Campbell L 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP	6.31	13.7%	17.5%	3.9%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	250	65
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	118	19.4%	15.7%	1.25	5.57
Emmett O'Neill ('43-'46, -2 WAR*)	1.8	119	19.1%*	15.5%*	0.99*	5.94*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Gene Dale ('11-'16, -1 WAR*)	2.2	148	17.7%*	12.6%*	1.45*	5.30*
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Tex Shirley ('41-'46, -0 WAR*)	2.2	112	17.0%*	13.5%*	0.99*	4.92*