Anthony Cruz

P Asheville Tourists

Age 24 RHP 5'11" / 179 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ROKHOU	12	3	33	2.18	2.49	29.7%	7.8%	—	K 20.2% · BB 9.8% · FIP 3.71
2025	22	MIX2 levels	25	11	103	4.01	3.76	23.2%	11.8%	—	K 17.3% · BB 13.9% · FIP 4.70
2026	23	A+HOU	30	3	72	8.88	6.07	18.8%	14.3%	—	K 14.5% · BB 16.5% · FIP 6.85
2027PROJ	24	MLBHOU	64	0	67	6.26	6.26	14.7%	16.9%	-1.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBHOU	39	0	41	5.93	5.84	16.3%	14.9%	-0.6
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBHOU	60	0	63	5.73	5.68	17.2%	14.3%	-0.8

Next 3 projected WAR -2.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control35Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsCooper Adams (age 24) · Robbie Peto (age 24) · Tom Reisinger (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 152144vR 136

ERA6.26

FIP6.26

K%14.7%

BB%16.9%

K-BB%-2.2%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Blue	9	2	21	98	24	13	2	22%	2.3	16.7%	16.6%	0.1%	2.9%	4.79	5.38	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Blue	9	2	21	98	24	13	2	22%	2.3	24.5%	13.3%	11.2%	2.0%	4.79	3.92	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	14	6	43	179	50	17	1	43%	3.1	19.0%	11.9%	7.1%	0.6%	3.53	3.32	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	14	6	43	179	50	17	1	43%	3.1	27.9%	9.5%	18.4%	0.6%	3.53	2.27	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	12	3	33	128	38	10	2	25%	2.8	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	2.0%	2.18	3.71	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	12	3	33	128	38	10	2	25%	2.8	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	2.0%	2.18	3.71	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	12	3	33	128	38	10	2	25%	2.8	29.7%	7.8%	21.9%	1.6%	2.18	2.49	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	11	103	448	104	53	9	44%	4.1	17.3%	13.9%	3.4%	2.4%	4.01	4.70	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	11	103	448	104	53	9	44%	4.1	17.3%	13.9%	3.4%	2.4%	4.01	4.70	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	11	103	448	104	53	9	44%	4.1	23.2%	11.8%	11.4%	2.0%	4.01	3.76	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	30	3	72	356	67	51	15	10%	2.4	14.5%	16.5%	-2.0%	5.3%	8.88	6.85	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	30	3	72	356	67	51	15	10%	2.4	14.5%	16.5%	-2.0%	5.3%	8.88	6.85	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	30	3	72	356	67	51	15	10%	2.4	18.8%	14.3%	4.5%	4.2%	8.88	6.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	HOU	64	0	67	283	42	48	10	0%	1.0	14.7%	16.9%	-2.2%	3.4%	6.26	6.26	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	90	0	94	398	65	59	13	0%	1.0	16.3%	14.9%	1.4%	3.4%	5.93	5.84	-1.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	90	0	94	398	68	57	13	0%	1.0	17.2%	14.3%	2.8%	3.3%	5.73	5.68	-1.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	88	0	93	392	68	55	13	0%	1.1	17.4%	14.1%	3.3%	3.4%	5.65	5.65	-1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	86	0	90	380	66	53	13	0%	1.0	17.4%	14.1%	3.3%	3.5%	5.66	5.69	-1.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	82	0	86	363	62	52	13	0%	1.0	17.1%	14.3%	2.8%	3.6%	5.76	5.83	-1.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	77	0	81	341	57	50	13	0%	1.0	16.8%	14.6%	2.2%	3.8%	5.91	6.00	-1.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	39	0	41	173	28	26	6	0%	1.1	16.3%	14.9%	1.4%	3.4%	5.93	5.84	-0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	60	0	63	266	46	38	9	0%	1.1	17.2%	14.3%	2.8%	3.3%	5.73	5.68	-0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	69	0	72	304	53	43	10	0%	1.0	17.4%	14.1%	3.3%	3.4%	5.65	5.65	-0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	72	0	76	321	56	45	11	0%	1.1	17.4%	14.1%	3.3%	3.5%	5.66	5.69	-0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	71	0	75	317	54	45	11	0%	1.1	17.1%	14.3%	2.8%	3.6%	5.76	5.83	-1.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	70	0	73	308	52	45	12	0%	1.0	16.8%	14.6%	2.2%	3.8%	5.91	6.00	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		379	0	398	1682	287	241	59	0%	1.1	17.1%	14.3%	2.7%	3.5%	5.76	5.40	-3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	144	121	30	0%	1.1	17.1%	14.3%	2.7%	3.5%	5.76	5.40	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		90	25	272	1209	205	171	36	28%	3.0	17.0%	14.1%	2.8%	3.0%	5.06	5.08	-7.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	18	200	888	151	125	26	28%	3.0	17.0%	14.1%	2.8%	3.0%	5.06	5.08	-2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anthony Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.26	14.7%	16.9%	3.4%	—	5.72	16.9%	2.5%	281	-0.54	—	—	—
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	83
Robbie Peto R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	24	SU	5.39	15.6%	19.4%	2.1%	.242	5.75	15.3%	1.9%	80	+0.36	5.39	232	83
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	82
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	79
Zach Willeman R 2019 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	.296	4.98	21.3%	7.8%	108	-0.59	4.05	264	79
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	79
Blake Hickman R 2018 · 6.57 FIP	24	SW	6.57	12.9%	17.8%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	156	78
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	78
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	77
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	76
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	76
Austin Vernon R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	24	SW	5.75	22.1%	16.8%	4.3%	.325	3.68	23.3%	10.0%	100	-2.07	3.37	261	75
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	75
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	75
Ruben Castillo R 2024 · 5.40 FIP	23	SW	5.40	15.0%	15.5%	2.9%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	140	75
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	74
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	74
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2022 · 6.28 FIP	23	SW	6.28	16.6%	14.9%	4.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	120	74
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	73
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	86	16.8%	14.7%	1.35	5.83
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Bobby Jones ('04)	1.6	81	15.1%	12.9%	1.25	5.77
Mac Suzuki ('02)	2.3	93	15.4%	12.5%	1.29	5.72
Rube Fischer ('41-'46, -4 WAR*)	1.9	96	18.0%*	12.5%*	1.14*	6.04*
Hal Griggs ('56-'59, -4 WAR*)	1.7	116	16.8%*	11.9%*	1.33*	5.92*
Ray Harrell ('35-'45, -6 WAR*)	1.6	66	19.3%*	12.3%*	1.40*	6.15*