Jesus D. Castro — OGILVIE

Jesus D. CastroC ACL Padres

Age 22 S/R 5'10" / 158 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 64 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .272 / .294

PA6

HR0

K%30

BB%8

ISO93

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	18	ROK	DSL Padres	—	54	43	10	2	0	0	10	13	0	4	1	233	377	279	656	47	323	24	19	311	96	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	141	114	31	9	0	5	26	27	1	3	0	272	411	482	894	211	317	19	18	399	156	+9	+1	—	—	+3	1.3
2024	20	ROK	ACL Padres	—	71	58	5	0	0	0	9	21	1	0	0	86	221	86	307		132	30	13	163	-4	-9	+0	—	—	+2	-0.7
2025	21	ROK	ACL Padres	—	65	56	16	5	0	0	7	18	2	0	0	286	385	375	760	89	421	28	11	350	123	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	—	54	47	7	1	0	0	6	19	0	4	1	149	245	170	415	21	262	35	11	220	35	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	141	123	25	7	0	4	17	38	1	3	0	203	305	358	663	154	260	27	12	286	80	-3	+1	—	—	+3	0.0
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	71	61	4	0	0	0	6	31	1	0	0	66	162	66	227		105	44	8	109	-40	-12	+0	—	—	+2	-1.1
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	65	59	11	3	0	0	4	25	2	0	0	186	262	237	499	51	326	38	6	229	41	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	—	54	47	7	1	0	0	6	19	0	4	1	149	245	170	415	21	241	35	11	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	—	54	43	10	2	0	0	10	13	0	4	1	233	377	279	656	47	323	24	19	311	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	141	123	25	7	0	4	17	38	1	3	0	203	305	358	663	154	259	27	12	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	141	114	31	9	0	5	26	27	1	3	0	272	411	482	894	211	317	19	18	399	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	71	61	4	0	0	0	6	31	1	0	0	66	162	66	227		129	44	8	109	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	—	71	58	5	0	0	0	9	21	1	0	0	86	221	86	307		132	30	13	163	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	65	59	11	3	0	0	4	25	2	0	0	186	262	237	499	51	324	38	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	—	65	56	16	5	0	0	7	18	2	0	0	286	385	375	760	89	421	28	11	350	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	—	54	48	7	1	0	0	6	19	0	4	1	146	245	167	412	21	262	35	11	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	141	122	25	7	0	4	17	38	1	3	0	205	305	361	666	156	260	27	12	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	71	64	4	0	0	0	6	31	1	0	0	62	162	62	224		105	44	8	109	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	65	59	11	3	0	0	4	25	2	0	0	186	262	237	499	51	326	38	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	141	122	25	7	0	4	17	38	1	3	0	205	305	361	666	156	260	27	12	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	71	64	4	0	0	0	6	31	1	0	0	62	162	62	224		105	44	8	109	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	65	59	11	3	0	0	4	25	2	0	0	186	262	237	499	51	326	38	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	22	MLB MLE	SD	0%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	167	167	167	333		287	33	0	260	62	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SD	34%	140	127	26	5	1	2	11	41	1	2	1	205	273	307	580	102	288	29	8	271	70	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	SD	46%	262	236	51	10	1	5	21	75	3	3	1	216	288	331	619	114	290	29	8	278	75	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	SD	52%	340	307	67	13	2	7	27	96	3	4	1	218	288	342	630	124	290	28	8	283	78	-9	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	SD	54%	392	354	77	15	2	8	31	110	4	4	1	218	288	339	627	121	290	28	8	286	80	-10	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	SD	54%	418	377	83	16	2	9	34	117	4	5	2	220	292	345	636	125	290	28	8	286	80	-10	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	SD	54%	431	388	84	16	2	9	36	121	4	5	1	216	290	338	627	121	289	28	8	285	79	-11	+1	-1	+8	+9	0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	SD	53%	431	388	84	16	2	9	36	122	4	4	1	216	290	338	627	121	288	28	8	283	78	-11	+0	-1	+8	+9	0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	SD	52%	428	385	83	16	2	9	36	122	4	4	1	216	289	338	627	122	287	29	8	280	76	-12	+0	-2	+8	+9	0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	SD	52%	405	364	78	15	2	8	34	117	4	3	1	214	289	332	621	118	285	29	8	276	73	-13	+0	-3	+7	+9	0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	SD	34%	48	44	9	2	0	1	4	14	0	1	0	205	271	318	589	114	285	29	8	262	70	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	SD	46%	121	109	23	4	1	2	10	34	1	1	0	211	283	321	604	110	287	28	8	270	75	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	SD	52%	176	158	34	6	1	4	14	49	2	2	1	215	287	342	629	127	287	28	8	275	78	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	SD	54%	213	192	42	8	1	5	17	60	2	2	1	219	289	349	638	130	287	28	8	277	80	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	SD	54%	227	204	44	8	1	5	19	64	2	3	1	216	289	338	627	123	287	28	8	277	80	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	SD	54%	234	211	46	9	1	5	19	66	2	3	1	218	289	341	630	123	286	28	8	276	79	-6	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	SD	53%	229	206	44	8	1	5	19	65	2	2	1	214	286	335	621	121	285	28	8	274	78	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	SD	52%	224	201	43	8	1	5	19	64	2	2	1	214	288	338	627	124	284	29	8	272	76	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	SD	52%	211	190	39	7	1	4	17	61	2	2	1	205	278	316	593	111	282	29	8	268	73	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1683	1515	324	60	8	36	138	477	15	18	7	214	286	335	621	121	285	28	8	274	73	-46	+1	-4	+30	+36	1.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	125	23	3	14	53	184	6	7	3	214	286	335	621	121	285	28	8	274	73	-18	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3584	3222	681	133	16	70	299	1036	35	41	11	211	285	328	613	116	286	29	8	277	73	-90	+3	-7	+58	+70	3.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	124	24	3	13	54	188	6	7	2	212	285	330	616	118	288	29	8	277	73	-18	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.6	1,746	35	18	217	286	336	+31	+24	3.1	3.0
/162	664	13	7	+11.9	+9.1	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus D. Castro (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	202/272/294	92	287	1	1	30%	8%	62	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adrian Nieto 2012 · A	22	41→47	40→45	47→40	41	198/255/285	88	283	7	4	32%	7%	53	-2.1	218/279/331	113	304	11	5	30%	7%	73	-0.6	219/283/333	114	299	11	3	29%	8%	73	-0.3
✕Skye Bolt 2017 · A	23	40→41	40→50	47→50	41	194/255/287	93	273	7	9	30%	6%	54	-2.0	201/262/330	129	290	12	10	33%	7%	66	-1.1	238/305/370	133	314	14	12	28%	8%	89	+0.2
✕Jose Sermo 2013 · A	22	44→36	41→55	48→50	37	214/256/311	97	298	8	8	30%	4%	59	-1.7	199/245/290	91	313	8	9	37%	5%	50	-2.3	196/239/321	125	302	14	13	38%	5%	53	-0.6
✕John Tolisano 2011 · A	22	40→46	43→45	45→50	44	198/261/309	111	272	10	6	30%	8%	61	-1.5	207/269/335	128	271	12	11	27%	8%	70	-0.8	204/266/333	129	258	12	12	25%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Marcus Littlewood 2013 · A	21	40	40→45	48→45	41	198/249/288	90	271	8	7	29%	6%	51	-2.2	198/267/305	107	269	9	5	28%	8%	62	-1.4	204/271/311	107	262	9	4	25%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Daniel Schneemann 2019 · A	22	38→48	40→50	50	43	185/251/280	94	271	8	6	33%	8%	51	-2.3	211/270/297	86	293	7	9	28%	7%	61	-1.5	223/303/368	144	295	14	13	28%	10%	87	+0.3
✕Ashton McGee 2021 · A	22	41	39→45	50→40	41	194/258/283	89	288	5	5	33%	7%	54	-2.0	201/288/312	111	366	10	4	43%	10%	72	-0.7	185/281/295	109	345	11	2	44%	11%	63	-0.7
✕Anthony Seigler 2021 · A	22	42→39	37→45	49→55	47	200/278/275	74	283	5	6	29%	9%	60	-1.6	192/289/299	107	272	9	9	30%	11%	70	-0.8	219/309/345	126	268	10	25	21%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Hutton Moyer 2016 · A	23	39→42	42→50	50	36	194/252/305	111	271	9	7	31%	4%	57	-1.8	205/254/332	127	302	13	13	35%	5%	64	-1.3	196/243/329	133	288	15	15	36%	4%	57	-0.8
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→48	39→45	48→50	45	182/274/268	86	264	6	10	31%	8%	58	-1.7	206/278/301	95	283	7	11	28%	7%	66	-1.1	217/289/313	96	287	8	16	26%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Jose Sibrian 2021 · A	22	43	38→50	49→30	39	204/261/283	79	291	5	6	30%	6%	55	-2.0	204/258/283	79	271	6	3	26%	5%	54	-2.0	202/260/295	93	255	9	0	24%	5%	55	-0.7
✕Christopher Familia 2022 · A	22	42	38→55	47→45	43	200/270/287	86	279	5	10	28%	7%	59	-1.6	215/282/373	158	275	20	5	29%	7%	84	+0.2	208/273/389	181	258	25	2	30%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	42	-2.9	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	65	-1.2	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	77	-0.1
✕Jose Marquez 2019 · A	21	43	42→50	48→50	39	212/256/319	107	280	8	7	27%	5%	61	-1.5	211/260/312	101	308	9	8	33%	5%	61	-1.5	129/202/216	87	206	15	12	43%	7%	16	-0.8
✕Taylor Gushue 2016 · A	22	40	39→45	45→30	39	197/240/286	89	262	6	4	27%	4%	47	-2.5	189/238/296	107	255	12	2	30%	5%	49	-2.4	199/260/327	128	276	15	0	32%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	41	41→40	46→45	39	201/255/297	96	286	8	8	32%	6%	55	-1.9	198/263/285	87	291	7	9	32%	7%	57	-1.8	182/254/257	75	267	7	8	32%	8%	46	-1.1
✕Javier Valdes 2021 · A	22	40	37→50	50→30	45	190/266/263	73	266	4	7	28%	8%	53	-2.1	211/295/322	111	281	11	5	27%	8%	78	-0.3	208/306/343	135	260	16	3	25%	9%	85	+0.1
✕Drew Stankiewicz 2015 · A	22	39→49	37→45	51→45	38	191/237/261	70	280	5	9	33%	6%	40	-3.1	223/279/306	83	288	4	7	22%	7%	66	-1.1	228/288/316	88	292	5	5	22%	7%	69	-0.5
✕BJ Murray 2022 · A	22	45→49	42→45	52→50	39	215/264/323	107	311	9	8	33%	6%	65	-1.2	220/302/339	119	304	11	10	29%	10%	84	+0.1	206/292/336	129	262	15	14	26%	10%	77	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps