Jesus D. Castro — OGILVIE

Jesus D. CastroC ACL Padres

Age 22 S/R 5'10" / 158 lbs ROK HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 64 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .272 / .294

PA64

HR1

K%30

BB%8

ISO93

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Padres	—	54	47	8	2	0	0	6	19	0	4	1	170	264	213	477	43	276	35	11	222	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Padres	—	54	43	10	2	0	0	10	13	0	4	1	233	377	279	656	47	323	24	19	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	141	123	26	8	0	3	17	38	1	3	0	211	312	350	662	138	280	27	12	293	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	141	114	31	9	0	5	26	27	1	3	0	272	411	482	894	211	317	19	18	399	163	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	ACL Padres	—	71	61	4	0	0	0	6	31	1	0	0	66	162	66	227		129	44	8	107	-60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	ACL Padres	—	71	58	5	0	0	0	9	21	1	0	0	86	221	86	307		132	30	13	163	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	ACL Padres	—	65	59	11	3	0	0	4	25	2	0	0	186	262	237	499	51	324	38	6	228	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	ACL Padres	—	65	56	16	5	0	0	7	18	2	0	0	286	385	375	760	89	421	28	11	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	SD	—	64	58	11	2	0	1	5	19	1	1	0	190	266	276	541	86	287	30	8	260	57	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	SD	34%	140	127	26	5	1	2	11	41	1	2	1	205	273	307	580	102	289	29	8	271	66	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2028	24	MLB	SD	46%	262	236	51	10	1	5	21	75	3	3	1	216	288	331	619	114	290	29	8	279	71	-8	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.4
2029	25	MLB	SD	52%	340	307	67	13	2	7	27	96	3	4	1	218	288	342	630	124	291	28	8	283	75	-10	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.7
2030	26	MLB	SD	54%	392	353	77	15	2	8	32	110	4	4	1	218	290	340	630	122	291	28	8	286	77	-10	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.9
2031	27	MLB	SD	54%	418	377	82	16	2	9	34	117	4	5	2	218	289	342	631	125	290	28	8	286	77	-11	+0	+0	+7	+12	0.9
2032	28	MLB	SD	54%	431	388	84	16	2	9	36	122	4	5	1	216	290	338	627	121	290	28	8	285	76	-12	+1	-1	+8	+12	0.8
2033	29	MLB	SD	53%	431	388	84	16	2	9	36	122	4	4	1	216	290	338	627	121	289	28	8	283	75	-12	+0	-1	+8	+12	0.7
2034	30	MLB	SD	52%	428	385	82	16	2	8	36	123	4	4	1	213	287	327	614	114	288	29	8	280	73	-13	+0	-2	+8	+12	0.5
2035	31	MLB	SD	52%	405	364	78	15	2	8	34	117	4	3	1	214	289	332	621	118	285	29	8	276	70	-14	+0	-3	+7	+11	0.2
2036	32	MLB	SD	56%	379	340	71	13	2	7	32	111	4	2	1	209	285	321	605	112	282	29	8	271	65	-15	+0	-4	+7	+11	-0.1
2027	23	MLB	SD	34%	48	44	9	2	0	1	4	14	0	1	0	205	271	318	589	114	285	29	8	261	58	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	24	MLB	SD	46%	121	109	23	4	1	2	10	34	1	1	0	211	283	321	604	110	287	28	8	268	63	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	25	MLB	SD	52%	176	158	34	7	1	3	14	50	2	2	1	215	287	329	616	114	287	28	8	272	66	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2030	26	MLB	SD	54%	213	192	41	8	1	4	17	60	2	2	1	214	284	328	612	115	287	28	8	275	68	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2031	27	MLB	SD	54%	227	204	44	8	1	5	19	64	2	3	1	216	289	338	627	123	287	28	8	275	68	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.3
2032	28	MLB	SD	54%	234	211	46	9	1	5	19	66	2	3	1	218	289	341	630	123	286	28	8	274	68	-9	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.2
2033	29	MLB	SD	53%	229	206	44	8	1	5	19	65	2	2	1	214	286	335	621	121	285	28	8	272	66	-9	+0	-1	+4	+6	0.1
2034	30	MLB	SD	52%	224	201	42	8	1	4	19	64	2	2	1	209	284	318	602	109	284	29	8	269	64	-9	+0	-1	+4	+6	0.0
2035	31	MLB	SD	52%	211	189	39	7	1	4	18	61	2	2	1	206	282	317	600	111	282	29	9	265	61	-9	+0	-1	+4	+6	-0.1
2036	32	MLB	SD	56%	213	191	39	7	1	4	18	63	2	1	0	204	280	314	594	110	278	30	8	260	57	-10	+0	-2	+4	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1896	1705	361	68	9	37	157	541	17	19	7	212	285	327	612	116	285	29	8	270	65	-75	+1	-6	+34	+54	0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	124	23	3	13	54	185	6	7	2	212	286	328	614	116	285	28	8	270	65	-26	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	4021	3613	762	150	18	76	337	1166	40	44	12	211	285	325	611	115	287	29	8	276	70	-138	+4	-10	+72	+114	4.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	123	24	3	12	54	188	6	7	2	211	284	324	607	113	287	29	8	276	70	-22	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Padres	—	54	43	10	2	0	10	13	0	4	1	233	377	279	656	47	323	24	19	311	96	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2023	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	141	114	31	9	5	26	27	1	3	0	272	411	482	894	211	317	19	18	399	163	+10	+1	—	—	+4	1.5
2024	20	ROK	ACL Padres	—	71	58	5	0	0	9	21	1	0	0	86	221	86	307		132	30	13	163	-17	-9	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2025	21	ROK	ACL Padres	—	65	56	16	5	0	7	18	2	0	0	286	385	375	760	89	421	28	11	350	126	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	1,958	38	19	216	285	334	+35	+24	2.8	2.7
	/162	664	13	7	216	285	334	+11.9	+8.1	0.9	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus D. Castro (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	202/272/294	92	287	1	1	30%	8%	57	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Marcus Littlewood 2014 · A	22	40	40→45	48→45	46	194/268/290	96	282	7	4	32%	9%	54	-1.4	208/272/320	112	275	10	5	27%	8%	63	-0.8	209/274/322	113	270	10	4	25%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Adrian Nieto 2012 · A	22	40→45	40→45	47→40	42	197/256/283	87	281	7	4	31%	7%	46	-2.0	214/276/324	110	304	10	5	31%	8%	66	-0.6	213/279/325	112	297	11	3	30%	8%	66	-0.3
✕Ashton McGee 2021 · A	22	41	39→45	50→40	41	194/258/283	89	288	5	5	33%	7%	48	-1.9	196/284/305	109	362	11	4	44%	10%	66	-0.6	177/274/284	107	334	12	2	45%	11%	53	-0.8
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕John Tolisano 2011 · A	22	40→47	43→50	44→50	44	198/261/308	110	272	10	6	30%	8%	56	-1.3	209/271/344	135	275	14	11	28%	8%	69	-0.4	205/268/344	139	261	14	12	26%	8%	64	-0.5
✕Hutton Moyer 2016 · A	23	39→43	42→55	50	36	194/252/305	111	271	9	7	31%	4%	51	-1.7	207/256/343	136	305	15	13	36%	5%	63	-0.8	199/246/342	143	292	17	15	37%	4%	55	-0.6
✕Skye Bolt 2017 · A	23	39	40→50	47→50	40	192/250/287	95	270	7	9	30%	6%	46	-2.0	199/257/325	126	291	11	10	34%	7%	59	-1.1	238/304/382	144	312	16	12	28%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	41	39→50	49→40	43	198/254/288	90	263	6	6	26%	6%	47	-1.9	192/251/307	115	278	12	4	34%	6%	52	-1.6	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Daniel Schneemann 2019 · A	22	38→48	40→50	50	43	185/251/280	94	271	8	6	33%	8%	44	-2.1	209/267/297	88	289	7	9	28%	7%	55	-1.4	226/305/375	149	299	15	13	28%	10%	88	+0.7
✕Taylor Gushue 2016 · A	22	40	39→50	45→30	38	195/237/282	87	259	6	4	27%	4%	37	-2.6	183/233/285	102	250	11	2	30%	5%	38	-2.6	204/266/342	138	281	16	0	32%	7%	65	-0.3
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	39→49	38→45	48→50	44	184/272/269	85	267	5	10	31%	8%	52	-1.6	206/276/298	92	284	6	11	28%	6%	60	-1.0	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Jonah Heim 2017 · A	22	37→47	39→55	49→40	43	184/235/265	81	234	7	4	24%	6%	33	-2.9	211/259/307	96	271	9	3	25%	6%	54	-1.4	227/289/395	168	253	21	3	19%	8%	88	+0.6
✕Pratt Maynard 2012 · A	22	43	39→45	48→45	42	206/272/292	86	305	7	5	33%	7%	56	-1.3	216/277/305	89	275	7	5	22%	8%	62	-0.9	218/282/314	95	271	7	4	21%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	35	-2.8	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Anthony Seigler 2021 · A	22	42→39	37→50	49→55	47	199/276/274	74	283	5	6	29%	9%	53	-1.5	192/289/301	109	273	9	9	30%	12%	67	-0.5	226/317/363	137	277	12	28	21%	11%	91	+0.6
✕Alejandro Flores 2016 · A	20	37	39→50	45→40	43	182/248/265	83	263	7	5	32%	8%	39	-2.5	203/261/310	107	295	9	6	32%	7%	56	-1.3	202/257/342	140	271	13	4	30%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Oswaldo Cabrera 2021 · A	22	41→43	41→55	41→50	39	203/240/304	101	263	9	7	26%	4%	45	-2.1	225/274/392	167	291	19	16	29%	6%	83	+0.6	220/274/385	165	277	19	18	28%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Jose Sibrian 2021 · A	22	43	38→50	49→30	39	204/261/283	79	291	5	6	30%	6%	49	-1.8	200/255/276	76	267	5	3	26%	5%	45	-2.1	193/253/280	87	245	8	0	24%	5%	42	-0.8
✕Jose Marquez 2019 · A	21	43	42→50	48→50	39	212/256/319	107	280	8	7	27%	5%	56	-1.3	211/260/311	100	309	9	8	33%	5%	56	-1.3	125/197/206	81	204	13	12	44%	7%	1	-0.9
✕Christopher Familia 2022 · A	22	42	38→55	47→45	43	200/270/285	85	279	4	10	28%	7%	54	-1.4	212/277/365	153	274	19	5	29%	6%	79	+0.3	203/266/377	174	255	24	2	31%	6%	72	-0.1