Cristhian Vaquero
OF Fredericksburg Nationals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | AWSH | 401 | .190/.292/.303 | 5 | 29 | 22 | — | .142/.222/.219 |
| 2025 | 20 | AWSH | 445 | .256/.346/.396 | 8 | 27 | 52 | — | .189/.264/.288 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/A/ROKWSH | 192 | .232/.325/.348 | 4 | 14 | 36 | — | .174/.251/.263 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBWSH | 378 | .181/.251/.271 | 5 | 12 | 48 | -0.5 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBWSH | 57 | .187/.258/.287 | 1 | 2 | 56 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Nationals | — | 216 | 176 | 45 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 33 | 38 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 256 | 380 | 341 | 721 | 85 | 317 | 18 | 15 | 331 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 78 | 66 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 197 | 321 | 288 | 608 | 91 | 255 | 23 | 15 | 287 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 182 | 140 | 39 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 35 | 5 | 15 | 8 | 279 | 420 | 393 | 812 | 114 | 352 | 19 | 16 | 358 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 401 | 347 | 66 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 137 | 11 | 29 | 6 | 190 | 292 | 303 | 595 | 112 | 295 | 34 | 10 | 274 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 445 | 379 | 97 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 46 | 110 | 8 | 27 | 5 | 256 | 346 | 396 | 742 | 140 | 331 | 25 | 10 | 328 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 56 | 48 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 229 | 309 | 229 | 538 | 333 | 29 | 11 | 253 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 101 | 84 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 31 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 262 | 376 | 488 | 864 | 226 | 367 | 31 | 14 | 381 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 35 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 156 | 200 | 156 | 356 | 238 | 31 | 3 | 170 | -38 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 216 | 188 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 47 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 165 | 263 | 213 | 476 | 48 | 211 | 22 | 10 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 78 | 70 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 171 | 256 | 257 | 514 | 86 | 236 | 32 | 10 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 182 | 152 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 50 | 5 | 15 | 8 | 211 | 310 | 289 | 600 | 79 | 274 | 27 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 401 | 360 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 180 | 11 | 29 | 6 | 142 | 222 | 219 | 441 | 78 | 257 | 45 | 6 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 445 | 396 | 75 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 154 | 8 | 27 | 5 | 189 | 264 | 288 | 552 | 98 | 273 | 35 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 56 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 196 | 255 | 196 | 451 | 293 | 38 | 7 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 101 | 89 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 191 | 287 | 360 | 647 | 169 | 309 | 42 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 35 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 91 | 143 | 91 | 234 | 190 | 46 | 3 | 112 | -38 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 216 | 188 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 47 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 165 | 263 | 213 | 476 | 48 | 211 | 22 | 10 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Nationals | — | 216 | 176 | 45 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 33 | 38 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 256 | 380 | 341 | 721 | 85 | 317 | 18 | 15 | 331 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 260 | 222 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 75 | 5 | 22 | 8 | 198 | 294 | 279 | 573 | 81 | 282 | 29 | 10 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 260 | 206 | 52 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 53 | 5 | 22 | 8 | 252 | 389 | 359 | 748 | 107 | 323 | 20 | 16 | 337 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 401 | 360 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 180 | 11 | 29 | 6 | 142 | 222 | 219 | 441 | 78 | 268 | 45 | 6 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 401 | 347 | 66 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 137 | 11 | 29 | 6 | 190 | 292 | 303 | 595 | 112 | 295 | 34 | 10 | 274 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 445 | 396 | 75 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 154 | 8 | 27 | 5 | 189 | 264 | 288 | 552 | 98 | 283 | 35 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 445 | 379 | 97 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 46 | 110 | 8 | 27 | 5 | 256 | 346 | 396 | 742 | 140 | 331 | 25 | 10 | 328 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 192 | 174 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 79 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 172 | 246 | 259 | 505 | 86 | 290 | 41 | 7 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 192 | 164 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 58 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 232 | 325 | 348 | 672 | 116 | 330 | 30 | 11 | 305 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 216 | 189 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 47 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 164 | 263 | 212 | 475 | 48 | 211 | 22 | 10 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 260 | 228 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 75 | 5 | 22 | 8 | 193 | 294 | 272 | 566 | 79 | 263 | 29 | 10 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 401 | 361 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 180 | 11 | 29 | 6 | 141 | 222 | 219 | 440 | 78 | 257 | 45 | 6 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 445 | 402 | 75 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 154 | 8 | 27 | 5 | 187 | 264 | 284 | 547 | 97 | 273 | 35 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 192 | 173 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 79 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 173 | 246 | 260 | 506 | 87 | 283 | 41 | 7 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 401 | 361 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 180 | 11 | 29 | 6 | 141 | 222 | 219 | 440 | 78 | 257 | 45 | 6 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 445 | 402 | 75 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 154 | 8 | 27 | 5 | 187 | 264 | 284 | 547 | 97 | 273 | 35 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 192 | 173 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 79 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 173 | 246 | 260 | 506 | 87 | 283 | 41 | 7 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | WSH | 0% | 378 | 342 | 62 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 131 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 181 | 251 | 271 | 522 | 90 | 273 | 35 | 7 | 239 | 48 | -23 | +2 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | WSH | 34% | 166 | 151 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 56 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 188 | 259 | 290 | 549 | 102 | 274 | 34 | 7 | 250 | 56 | -9 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | WSH | 34% | 57 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 187 | 258 | 287 | 545 | 100 | 273 | 33 | 7 | 249 | 56 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 57 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 192 | 263 | 288 | 552 | 96 | 281 | 33 | 7 | 249 | 43 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 114 | 23 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 217 | 11 | 23 | 0 | 192 | 263 | 287 | 550 | 94 | 282 | 33 | 7 | 249 | 43 | -34 | +5 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1819 | 1617 | 283 | 45 | 16 | 20 | 141 | 639 | 34 | 118 | 30 | 175 | 256 | 260 | 515 | 85 | 269 | 35 | 8 | 231 | 43 | -17 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 101 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 50 | 228 | 12 | 42 | 11 | 175 | 255 | 260 | 514 | 85 | 269 | 35 | 8 | 231 | 43 | -37 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 101 PAwOBA .371 → .273 (−98)K% 30.7% → 41.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 41.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.98% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | — | 19.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.957 | — | 7.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.957 | — | 1.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 6.04% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .371 → .273; ISO .226 → .164; BABIP .367 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 56 PAwOBA .251 → .198 (−54)K% 28.6% → 37.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 37.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 6.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 30.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .251 → .198; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Nationals · 35 PAwOBA .166 → .112 (−54)K% 31.4% → 45.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.43% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 45.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 1.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 2.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 19.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .166 → .112; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .238 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 445 PAwOBA .324 → .245 (−79)K% 24.7% → 34.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.72% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.11% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.80% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.28% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 21.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.83% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 3.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.97% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 2.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.97% | ÷1.040 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.32% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 109, 2B 110, 3B 121, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .324 → .245; ISO .140 → .102; BABIP .331 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 401 PAwOBA .269 → .200 (−69)K% 34.2% → 44.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.16% | ÷1.038 | ×1.360 | — | — | 44.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.73% | ÷1.044 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.74% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.52% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 17.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.62% | ÷0.907 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 6.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.90% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 1.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.82% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 108, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .269 → .200; ISO .112 → .082; BABIP .295 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Nationals · 182 PAwOBA .356 → .267 (−89)K% 19.2% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.23% | ÷1.011 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.013 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 9.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.75% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.71% | ÷0.983 | ×0.820 | ×0.961 | ×1.008 | 20.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷0.971 | ×0.720 | ×0.961 | ×1.008 | 6.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.90% | ÷1.034 | ×0.720 | ×0.961 | ×1.008 | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.75% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 107, K 102, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .356 → .267; ISO .114 → .087; BABIP .352 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 78 PAwOBA .281 → .219 (−62)K% 23.1% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.126 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 9.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×1.045 | 19.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.045 | 1.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×1.045 | 1.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷0.917 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.90% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 103, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .281 → .219; ISO .091 → .074; BABIP .255 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Nationals · 216 PAwOBA .323 → .223 (−100)K% 17.6% → 21.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.59% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.35% | ÷1.004 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 10.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷0.982 | ×0.680 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 18.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.90% | ÷1.039 | ×0.600 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 1.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.90% | ÷1.077 | ×0.600 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 1.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.72% | ÷0.930 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.37% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 96, 2B 108, 3B 115, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .323 → .223; ISO .085 → .049; BABIP .317 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).