Austin Gauthier
2B Oklahoma City Comets| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 535 | .253/.375/.359 | 6 | 13 | 84 | — | .236/.325/.328 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAALAD | 478 | .259/.408/.354 | 4 | 5 | 97 | — | .255/.353/.336 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAALAD | 364 | .234/.351/.329 | 6 | 8 | 61 | — | .209/.292/.277 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 28 | MLBLAD | 16 | .222/.313/.301 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ33% MLB | 29 | MLBLAD | 69 | .221/.310/.300 | 1 | 1 | 80 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 124 | 98 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 38 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 255 | 397 | 327 | 723 | 71 | 397 | 31 | 19 | 332 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | — | 81 | 62 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 177 | 354 | 274 | 629 | 97 | 222 | 22 | 19 | 299 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 397 | 300 | 86 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 88 | 81 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 287 | 461 | 433 | 894 | 147 | 376 | 20 | 22 | 409 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 392 | 321 | 94 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 64 | 54 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 293 | 415 | 433 | 848 | 140 | 332 | 14 | 16 | 380 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | — | 187 | 148 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 30 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 365 | 492 | 568 | 1.059 | 203 | 421 | 16 | 19 | 461 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Baseball Club | — | 425 | 364 | 90 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 56 | 87 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 247 | 355 | 330 | 685 | 82 | 320 | 20 | 13 | 319 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 110 | 82 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 280 | 454 | 488 | 942 | 207 | 297 | 15 | 20 | 415 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 478 | 378 | 98 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 93 | 92 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 259 | 408 | 354 | 763 | 95 | 328 | 19 | 19 | 353 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 364 | 304 | 71 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 54 | 84 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 234 | 351 | 329 | 680 | 95 | 301 | 23 | 15 | 313 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 124 | 107 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 56 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 159 | 256 | 196 | 452 | 37 | 302 | 45 | 11 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 81 | 66 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 167 | 304 | 258 | 561 | 91 | 199 | 27 | 14 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 397 | 332 | 77 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 56 | 118 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 232 | 358 | 334 | 692 | 102 | 345 | 30 | 14 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 392 | 338 | 94 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 47 | 64 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 278 | 371 | 405 | 776 | 127 | 319 | 16 | 12 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 187 | 159 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 38 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 308 | 405 | 465 | 871 | 157 | 368 | 20 | 13 | 383 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Baseball Club | — | 425 | 381 | 90 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 105 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 236 | 315 | 312 | 628 | 76 | 322 | 25 | 9 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 110 | 90 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 233 | 361 | 389 | 750 | 156 | 249 | 18 | 13 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 478 | 411 | 105 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 60 | 109 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 255 | 353 | 336 | 689 | 80 | 330 | 23 | 13 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 364 | 321 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 101 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 209 | 292 | 277 | 570 | 69 | 281 | 28 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 124 | 107 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 56 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 159 | 256 | 196 | 452 | 37 | 315 | 45 | 11 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK RAW | ACL Dodgers | — | 124 | 98 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 38 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 255 | 397 | 327 | 723 | 71 | 397 | 31 | 19 | 332 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 478 | 398 | 88 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 67 | 140 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 221 | 349 | 322 | 670 | 101 | 325 | 29 | 14 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 478 | 362 | 97 | 21 | 4 | 7 | 103 | 99 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 268 | 443 | 406 | 849 | 138 | 349 | 21 | 22 | 391 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 579 | 497 | 142 | 26 | 5 | 10 | 72 | 102 | 4 | 19 | 6 | 286 | 380 | 419 | 799 | 133 | 338 | 18 | 12 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 579 | 469 | 148 | 29 | 5 | 12 | 100 | 84 | 4 | 19 | 6 | 316 | 440 | 475 | 915 | 160 | 359 | 15 | 17 | 406 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 471 | 112 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 53 | 126 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 238 | 326 | 329 | 656 | 91 | 313 | 24 | 10 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 535 | 446 | 113 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 78 | 103 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 253 | 375 | 359 | 734 | 105 | 316 | 19 | 15 | 339 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 478 | 411 | 105 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 60 | 109 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 255 | 353 | 336 | 689 | 80 | 336 | 23 | 13 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 478 | 378 | 98 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 93 | 92 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 259 | 408 | 354 | 763 | 95 | 328 | 19 | 19 | 353 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 364 | 321 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 101 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 209 | 292 | 277 | 570 | 69 | 289 | 28 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA RAW | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 364 | 304 | 71 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 54 | 84 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 234 | 351 | 329 | 680 | 95 | 301 | 23 | 15 | 313 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 124 | 109 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 56 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 156 | 256 | 193 | 449 | 37 | 302 | 45 | 11 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 478 | 397 | 88 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 67 | 140 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 222 | 349 | 322 | 671 | 101 | 320 | 29 | 14 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 579 | 498 | 142 | 26 | 5 | 10 | 72 | 102 | 4 | 19 | 6 | 285 | 380 | 418 | 798 | 133 | 335 | 18 | 12 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 468 | 112 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 53 | 126 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 239 | 326 | 331 | 658 | 92 | 307 | 24 | 10 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 478 | 413 | 105 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 60 | 109 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 254 | 353 | 334 | 687 | 80 | 330 | 23 | 13 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 364 | 323 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 101 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 207 | 292 | 276 | 568 | 68 | 281 | 28 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 468 | 112 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 53 | 126 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 239 | 326 | 331 | 658 | 92 | 307 | 24 | 10 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 478 | 413 | 105 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 60 | 109 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 254 | 353 | 334 | 687 | 80 | 330 | 23 | 13 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 364 | 323 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 101 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 207 | 292 | 276 | 568 | 68 | 281 | 28 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | LAD | 10% | 380 | 333 | 75 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 101 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 226 | 317 | 307 | 624 | 81 | 309 | 27 | 11 | 287 | 81 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | LAD | 10% | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 313 | 301 | 613 | 79 | 302 | 25 | 12 | 283 | 81 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | LAD | 33% | 212 | 186 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 56 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 225 | 314 | 306 | 620 | 82 | 307 | 26 | 11 | 286 | 80 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | LAD | 33% | 69 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 310 | 300 | 610 | 79 | 300 | 26 | 10 | 282 | 80 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 69 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 290 | 290 | 580 | 81 | 279 | 26 | 10 | 282 | 90 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 122 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 66 | 170 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 209 | 289 | 288 | 577 | 79 | 279 | 26 | 10 | 282 | 90 | -16 | +2 | -4 | +2 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2925 | 2527 | 604 | 105 | 19 | 31 | 343 | 731 | 29 | 67 | 14 | 239 | 337 | 332 | 669 | 93 | 321 | 25 | 12 | 301 | 90 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 562 | 134 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 76 | 162 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 238 | 335 | 331 | 666 | 93 | 319 | 25 | 12 | 301 | 90 | -15 | +2 | -2 | +2 | +14 | 0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 364 PAwOBA .307 → .259 (−49)K% 23.1% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 10.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.022 | ×1.003 | 23.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | ×1.003 | 3.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | ×1.003 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.91% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .307 → .259; ISO .095 → .075; BABIP .301 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 478 PAwOBA .349 → .312 (−37)K% 19.2% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.25% | ÷1.015 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.46% | ÷1.083 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 12.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.42% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.17% | ÷0.951 | ×0.930 | ×1.046 | ×1.018 | 26.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.99% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×1.046 | ×1.018 | 6.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.046 | ×1.018 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.40% | ÷0.956 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.04% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 90, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 103, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .349 → .312; ISO .095 → .087; BABIP .328 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 425 PAwOBA .311 → .281 (−30)K% 20.5% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.47% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.18% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 9.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.55% | ÷0.977 | ×0.930 | ×1.043 | ×1.033 | 25.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.78% | ÷0.930 | ×0.830 | ×1.043 | ×1.033 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.44% | ÷1.126 | ×0.970 | ×1.043 | ×1.033 | 1.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.72% | ÷0.896 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.58% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 95, 2B 86, 3B 125, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .311 → .281; ISO .082 → .076; BABIP .320 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AATulsa Drillers · 110 PAwOBA .410 → .335 (−75)K% 14.5% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.55% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.09% | ÷1.048 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 12.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.64% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 3.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×0.998 | 19.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.003 | ×0.840 | ×0.977 | ×0.998 | 3.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.142 | ×0.940 | ×0.977 | ×0.998 | 1.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.063 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.55% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 108, 2B 101, 3B 128, K 92, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .410 → .335; ISO .207 → .174; BABIP .297 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AATulsa Drillers · 392 PAwOBA .375 → .338 (−37)K% 13.8% → 16.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.78% | ÷1.023 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.33% | ÷0.973 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 11.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.34% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×1.012 | 23.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.12% | ÷0.942 | ×0.840 | ×1.030 | ×1.012 | 6.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.030 | ×1.012 | 1.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.25% | ÷1.083 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.68% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 105, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .375 → .338; ISO .140 → .129; BABIP .332 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Great Lakes Loons · 187 PAwOBA .455 → .383 (−72)K% 16.0% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.04% | ÷1.004 | ×1.270 | — | — | 20.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.25% | ÷0.992 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 13.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.36% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 28.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.47% | ÷1.011 | ×0.810 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 6.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷0.997 | ×0.850 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.08% | ÷0.951 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.22% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 95, 2B 102, 3B 99, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .455 → .383; ISO .203 → .171; BABIP .421 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 397 PAwOBA .400 → .311 (−89)K% 20.4% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.40% | ÷0.930 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.17% | ÷1.072 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 14.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.48% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×0.990 | 25.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.22% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×0.990 | 7.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.83% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.017 | ×0.990 | 1.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷1.247 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 1.74% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 86, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .400 → .311; ISO .147 → .112; BABIP .376 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Great Lakes Loons · 81 PAwOBA .300 → .248 (−52)K% 22.2% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.033 | ×1.270 | — | — | 27.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.52% | ÷0.980 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 13.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.47% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.91% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 14.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷0.985 | ×0.810 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 5.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.013 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.79% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 105, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 107, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .300 → .248; ISO .097 → .083; BABIP .222 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).