Henrison Mota prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Henrison Mota P ACL Brewers

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 193 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%23.0%

BB%17.2%

K-BB%5.8%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	17	0	25	107	34	15	2	0%	1.5	21.6%	17.5%	4.1%	2.5%	3.20	4.89	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	17	0	25	107	34	15	2	0%	1.5	31.8%	14.0%	17.8%	1.9%	3.20	3.22	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Gold	10	9	32	160	44	39	0	90%	3.2	18.7%	30.5%	-11.8%	0.0%	3.62	5.38	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers Gold	10	9	32	160	44	39	0	90%	3.2	27.5%	24.4%	3.1%	0.0%	3.62	4.00	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	13	0	23	129	35	36	2	0%	1.7	18.4%	34.9%	-16.4%	2.4%	11.12	7.29	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	13	0	23	129	35	36	2	0%	1.7	18.4%	34.9%	-16.4%	2.4%	11.12	7.29	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	13	0	23	129	35	36	2	0%	1.7	27.1%	27.9%	-0.8%	1.6%	11.12	5.92	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.0%	17.2%	5.8%	3.0%	5.36	5.36	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIL	19	0	20	84	20	12	3	0%	1.1	23.6%	14.8%	8.8%	3.0%	5.09	4.98	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIL	9	0	9	38	9	6	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	14.8%	8.8%	3.0%	5.09	4.98	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	9	5	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	14.8%	8.9%	3.0%	5.09	4.60	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	117	23	0%	1.1	23.6%	14.8%	8.9%	3.0%	5.09	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		40	9	80	396	77	112	6	22%	2.0	19.4%	28.4%	-9.0%	1.5%	5.60	5.87	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	22	200	986	191	280	15	22%	2.0	19.4%	28.4%	-9.0%	1.5%	5.60	5.87	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Henrison Mota (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.36	23.0%	17.2%	3.0%	—	4.98	23.6%	8.8%	20	-0.38	—	—	—
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	84
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	84
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	82
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	81
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	80
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	80
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	80
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	79
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	79
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	78
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	78
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	78
Willian Suarez R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	20.4%	17.3%	3.0%	.329	5.13	25.4%	9.5%	128	-0.10	3.99	219	77
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	77
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	77
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	77
Alex Amalfi R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	22	SW	4.24	19.9%	18.5%	0.9%	.300	4.43	22.7%	10.8%	249	+0.19	2.67	299	77
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	77
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	76
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	76