Alan Roden

LF St. Paul Saints

Age 27 L/R 5'11" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

AAA40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	24	AAATOR	286	.314/.408/.510	9	8	124	—	.292/.359/.451
2025	25	MLBMIN	153	.191/.267/.294	2	1	58	-0.6
2026	26	MLBMIN	94	.291/.385/.392	1	0	118	0.1
2027PROJ45% MLB	27	MLBMIN	158	.240/.319/.371	4	3	96	0.2
2028PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBMIN	229	.238/.317/.365	5	3	94	0.2
2029PROJ65% MLB	29	MLBMIN	249	.235/.314/.358	5	2	91	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$1M2028Arb-2$1M2029Arb-3$2M2030Arb-4$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026

Whiff%90

Chase%90

Speed42

Bat Spd38

xwOBA24

Avg EV20

CompsRichie Palacios (age 27) · Trenton Brooks (age 27) · Nate Spears (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8796vR 99

AVG/OBP/SLG.240 / .319 / .371

PA158

HR4

K%18

BB%9

BABIP274

ISO143

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

906.5%

xAVG

140.222

POWER43

Barrel%

102.9

Avg EV

2086.8

Bat Spd

3870.1

EYE45

Chase%

9021.7%

SPEED51

Sprint

4227.1

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2025 · 153 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

127

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

284

244

◀L

ISO

143

096

◀◀L

BABIP

118

265

▶▶R

11.5%

26.8%

◀◀L

BB%

11.5%

3.9%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.2M
2028	Arb-2	$1M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-4	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$2M	+$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	115	90	21	4	0	1	17	13	5	5	1	233	384	311	695	78	253	11	15	324	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	209	174	54	6	1	6	26	32	8	9	2	310	423	460	883	149	350	15	12	397	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	323	268	86	23	1	4	42	32	13	15	2	321	437	459	895	138	353	10	13	405	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	286	245	77	15	3	9	35	41	4	8	0	314	408	510	919	196	345	14	12	404	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	244	206	55	11	1	7	29	34	7	6	1	267	376	432	808	165	287	14	12	362	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	153	136	26	6	1	2	8	37	6	1	1	191	267	294	561	103	240	24	5	254	58	-8	-0	+2	-3	+3	-0.6
2025	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	142	121	40	9	1	3	16	13	4	4	1	331	426	496	921	165	349	9	11	408	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	94	79	23	5	0	1	12	12	0	0	0	291	385	392	777	101	324	13	13	343	118	+2	+0	+0	-3	+2	0.1
2026	26	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	225	191	53	9	0	9	30	34	4	4	1	277	387	466	853	188	297	15	13	381	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	247	215	49	11	1	3	20	49	6	1	1	228	311	330	641	102	274	20	8	288	81	-6	-0	+2	-7	+5	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	115	97	21	4	0	1	10	17	5	5	1	216	321	289	610	72	227	15	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	209	184	53	6	1	5	16	40	8	9	2	288	370	413	783	125	338	19	8	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	323	280	78	21	1	3	30	42	13	15	2	279	375	393	767	114	314	13	9	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	286	257	75	14	3	7	23	49	4	8	0	292	359	451	811	160	333	17	8	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	244	215	51	9	1	5	20	42	7	6	1	237	322	358	680	121	265	17	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	153	136	26	6	1	2	8	37	6	1	1	191	267	294	561	103	240	24	5	254	58	-8	-0	+2	-3	+3	-0.6
2025	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	142	126	37	7	1	3	11	16	4	4	1	294	369	437	805	143	314	11	8	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	94	79	23	5	0	1	12	12	0	0	0	291	385	392	777	101	324	13	13	343	118	+2	+0	+0	-3	+2	0.1
2026	26	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	225	201	45	7	0	6	20	41	4	4	1	224	307	348	655	124	258	18	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	115	97	21	4	0	1	10	17	5	5	1	216	321	289	610	72	244	15	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	115	90	21	4	0	1	17	13	5	5	1	233	384	311	695	78	253	11	15	324	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	532	464	131	26	2	8	46	82	21	24	4	282	373	399	772	116	328	15	9	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	532	442	140	29	2	10	68	64	21	24	4	317	431	459	891	143	352	12	13	402	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	530	472	127	24	4	12	43	91	11	14	1	269	344	413	757	144	308	17	8	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	530	451	132	26	4	16	64	75	11	14	1	293	394	475	868	182	319	14	12	384	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	295	262	63	13	2	5	19	53	10	5	2	240	316	363	679	122	279	18	6	300	89	-4	+0	+2	-3	+6	0.2
2025	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	295	257	66	15	2	5	24	50	10	5	2	257	344	389	733	132	296	17	8	328	89	-4	+0	+2	-3	+6	0.2
2026	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	319	280	68	12	0	7	32	53	4	4	1	243	329	361	690	118	275	17	10	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	319	270	76	14	0	10	42	46	4	4	1	281	386	444	831	163	306	14	13	370	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	115	99	21	4	0	1	10	17	5	5	1	212	321	283	604	71	227	15	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	532	460	131	26	2	8	46	82	21	24	4	285	373	402	775	117	323	15	9	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	530	471	127	24	4	12	43	91	11	14	1	270	344	414	758	144	302	17	8	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	295	264	63	13	2	5	19	53	10	5	2	239	316	360	676	121	276	18	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	319	280	68	12	0	7	32	53	4	4	1	243	329	361	690	118	277	17	10	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	530	471	127	24	4	12	43	91	11	14	1	270	344	414	758	144	302	17	8	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	295	264	63	13	2	5	19	53	10	5	2	239	316	360	676	121	276	18	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	319	280	68	12	0	7	32	53	4	4	1	243	329	361	690	118	277	17	10	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIN	45%	369	328	79	15	2	8	32	66	6	6	1	240	319	370	689	130	274	18	9	310	96	-2	+1	+3	-4	+8	0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIN	45%	158	140	34	6	1	4	14	28	3	3	1	240	319	371	690	131	274	18	9	310	96	-1	+0	+1	-2	+3	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	60%	384	342	81	15	2	8	33	70	6	5	1	237	317	365	682	127	273	18	9	307	94	-3	+1	+2	-4	+8	0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	384	342	80	15	1	8	33	71	6	4	1	235	314	358	671	123	271	18	9	303	91	-4	+0	+1	-4	+8	0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIN	68%	384	342	79	15	1	8	33	72	6	2	1	231	310	349	658	118	269	19	9	298	88	-6	+0	+1	-4	+8	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	60%	229	203	48	9	1	5	20	42	4	3	1	238	317	365	682	128	273	18	9	307	94	-2	+0	+1	-2	+5	0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	249	222	52	10	1	5	21	46	4	2	1	235	314	358	672	124	271	18	8	303	91	-3	+0	+1	-3	+5	0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIN	68%	260	232	53	10	1	5	22	49	4	1	1	231	310	350	659	118	269	19	8	298	88	-4	-0	+0	-3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	985	872	202	40	4	18	83	186	18	7	4	232	311	349	660	117	272	19	8	299	98	-14	-0	+5	-14	+21	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	133	26	3	12	55	123	12	5	3	231	312	350	661	118	272	19	8	299	98	-9	-0	+3	-10	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3293	2912	725	138	14	65	279	572	75	69	13	249	330	373	703	124	287	17	8	313	98	-20	+2	+9	-23	+38	0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	143	27	3	13	55	113	15	14	3	249	330	374	704	125	287	17	8	313	98	-7	+1	+3	-8	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gabe Grosslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,682 PA	2.5	1,682	40	22	239	330	385	-14	+11	5.1	5.1
/162	664	16	9	-5.7	+4.4	2.0	pk7: 5
#2Sam Fuld'07-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,535 PA	2.3	1,535	12	67	230*	314*	336*	-10	+29	3.7	4.0
/162	664	5	29	-4.3	+12.7	1.6	pk7: 4
#3Dustan Mohr'01-'07 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,537 PA	2.3	1,537	49	13	241*	315*	412*	-15	+20	3.8	3.8
/162	664	21	6	-6.6	+8.6	1.6	pk7: 4
#4Turner Ward'90-'01 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,789 PA	2.7	1,789	39	33	241*	319*	384*	-11	+10	2.7	3.7
/162	664	14	12	-4.2	+3.7	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Larry Stahl'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	36	22	235*	297*	387*	-16	+11	2.4	2.9
/162	664	13	8	-5.5	+3.9	0.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.7	1,143	22	10	234	310	353	-12	+9	0.4	0.4
/162	664	13	6	-7.1	+5.3	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Mike Squires'75-'84 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,778 PA	2.7	1,778	6	45	255*	321*	338*	-31	+9	-1.3	-0.8
/162	664	2	17	-11.5	+3.5	-0.5	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alan Roden (OGILVIE)	27	30→50	35→43	55→51	45	237/316/367	129	274	8	6	18%	9%	96	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Richie Palacios 2024 · MLB	27	49→54	45	51→55	54	240/319/370	130	277	11	15	18%	9%	97	+1.1	227/316/345	118	269	12	22	19%	11%	91	+0.6	220/318/331	111	261	12	29	19%	12%	88	+0.2
✕Trenton Brooks 2022 · AAA	27	44→52	47→50	48→45	47	223/286/363	140	270	14	5	23%	8%	83	+0.1	238/314/378	140	279	14	7	19%	9%	97	+1.1	242/324/377	136	275	14	8	17%	10%	98	+0.9
✕Nate Spears 2012 · AAA	27	45→55	45	53→50	51	222/297/346	124	261	12	12	20%	8%	83	+0.1	212/280/324	112	275	10	10	25%	8%	72	-0.7	205/269/305	101	272	9	8	27%	8%	61	-0.7
✕Jake Goebbert 2015 · MLB	27	45→52	50	48→45	50	229/304/387	158	270	17	6	22%	9%	95	+1.0	217/287/344	127	274	14	5	25%	8%	79	-0.2	204/274/315	111	260	12	3	25%	8%	66	-0.7
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2020 · MLB	27	49→55	48→50	48→50	48	246/307/392	146	287	15	9	20%	7%	97	+1.1	223/286/345	122	283	13	8	25%	8%	79	-0.2	183/252/229	45	264	3	3	29%	8%	36	-0.8
✕Jeff Corsaletti 2010 · AAA	27	48→54	41→45	49→50	54	231/306/337	107	273	8	10	18%	9%	84	+0.2	226/298/328	102	273	9	10	19%	9%	79	-0.2	228/311/310	82	275	9	9	19%	11%	78	-0.1
✕Jeff Salazar 2008 · MLB	27	48→51	45→50	54→55	52	234/304/366	132	277	10	16	19%	9%	90	+0.6	227/292/353	126	270	12	17	20%	8%	82	+0.0	212/273/324	112	251	13	21	21%	7%	67	-0.7
✕Christian Marrero 2013 · AAA	27	49→54	45→50	47→50	50	239/303/369	131	282	11	10	20%	8%	91	+0.6	224/296/351	127	268	11	7	20%	9%	84	+0.1	236/315/359	123	279	12	3	19%	10%	92	+0.4
✕Troy Johnston 2024 · AAA	27	48→57	49→50	54→55	46	239/306/392	153	291	16	12	23%	7%	97	+1.1	238/298/373	135	292	13	19	22%	6%	90	+0.6	239/301/361	122	295	10	19	22%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Stephen Scott 2024 · AAA	27	39→44	49→50	49→50	51	206/287/354	149	248	17	8	25%	10%	82	-0.0	215/278/353	138	280	15	12	27%	7%	78	-0.3	231/283/382	151	299	15	14	27%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Nicky Delmonico 2019 · MLB	27	47→48	49→55	46→45	49	236/306/391	155	286	16	5	24%	8%	97	+1.1	222/290/357	135	288	14	6	26%	8%	83	+0.1	222/285/361	138	294	13	4	28%	7%	84	+0.0
✕Carlos Alvarez 2015 · AAA	27	48	42→45	47→45	52	230/302/341	111	276	9	9	20%	9%	83	+0.1	236/308/327	91	289	6	8	19%	8%	82	+0.0	235/308/307	71	293	3	6	19%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Kyle Isbel 2024 · MLB	27	47→52	47→50	52→55	45	234/289/376	142	285	13	16	22%	6%	87	+0.4	235/286/359	124	283	11	12	20%	6%	81	-0.1	233/283/344	112	281	10	11	20%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Bronson Sardinha 2010 · AAA	27	49→54	45→50	49→50	47	241/295/366	125	290	11	9	21%	7%	86	+0.3	252/321/393	141	303	13	11	20%	9%	103	+1.5	258/332/406	147	307	13	11	19%	10%	107	+1.0
✕Ramón Flores 2019 · MLB	27	49→59	41→45	51→50	51	237/304/335	98	288	9	10	20%	8%	82	+0.0	231/302/337	106	293	10	9	23%	9%	82	+0.0	276/358/392	116	337	13	8	20%	11%	112	+0.5
✕Nick Maton 2024 · MLB	27	43→42	46→50	44→45	52	212/305/349	136	274	13	6	26%	11%	87	+0.4	216/304/361	145	275	17	5	26%	10%	90	+0.6	201/293/344	143	250	19	1	27%	10%	80	-0.0
✕Carlos Moncrief 2016 · AAA	27	46→52	45→50	50	46	229/287/356	127	290	13	11	25%	7%	81	-0.1	224/284/335	111	300	10	11	27%	7%	76	-0.4	224/282/324	101	305	8	11	27%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Kevin Melillo 2009 · AAA	27	45→51	47→50	46→50	47	225/289/365	140	286	14	8	26%	8%	84	+0.2	221/282/350	129	263	12	8	20%	8%	78	-0.3	218/280/340	122	252	11	9	18%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Josh Smith 2024 · MLB	26	45→53	45	50	52	222/320/350	128	276	12	12	23%	10%	94	+0.9	238/320/361	123	288	12	12	20%	9%	95	+1.0	235/317/352	117	283	11	13	20%	9%	92	+0.7
✕Drew Macias 2010 · MLB	27	46→53	42→45	45→50	53	222/300/330	108	262	9	9	19%	9%	81	-0.1	213/295/319	106	263	9	11	21%	9%	77	-0.3	200/296/295	96	249	8	15	22%	9%	70	-0.5

Alan Roden

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps