Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 40 | 1 | 52 | 241 | 57 | 26 | 3 | 2% | 1.3 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 4.33 | 4.03 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 40 | 1 | 52 | 241 | 57 | 26 | 3 | 2% | 1.3 | 23.7% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 1.2% | 4.33 | 3.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 10 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 2.2% | 4.72 | 3.62 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | LAD | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 45 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 13.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.2% | 13.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.25 | 5.25 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 75 | 316 | 60 | 39 | 8 | — | — | 18.9% | 12.2% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 5.16 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.2% | 13.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.25 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 49 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 12.1% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 5.06 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 52 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 53 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 12.1% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 5.06 | 5.00 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 42 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 115 | 0 | 121 | 509 | 98 | 59 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.48 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 163 | 98 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.48 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 50 | 1 | 65 | 297 | 54 | 35 | 5 | 2% | 1.3 | 18.1% | 11.9% | 6.2% | 1.6% | 4.41 | 3.96 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 3 | 200 | 909 | 164 | 108 | 15 | 2% | 1.3 | 18.1% | 11.9% | 6.2% | 1.6% | 4.41 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cody Morse (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.25 | 17.2% | 13.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.88 | 19.1% | 7.4% | 191 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Trevor Seidenberger L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.63 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .248 | 6.50 | 13.1% | -1.8% | 52 | +1.87 | 4.63 | 101 | 90 |
| Jaden Woods L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.49 | 18.4% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .326 | 3.15 | 28.9% | 18.6% | 37 | -1.34 | 1.50 | 174 | 88 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 87 |
| Chris Reed L 2028 · 4.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.92 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .284 | 4.84 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 81 | -0.08 | 4.84 | 137 | 87 |
| Felix Carvallo L 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.41 | 17.7% | 13.0% | 2.1% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 132 | 86 |
| Daniel Brown L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.09 | 16.3% | 13.1% | 1.3% | .281 | 4.36 | 17.7% | 3.1% | 48 | +0.27 | 3.73 | 184 | 85 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 19.3% | 15.7% | 2.2% | .329 | 5.86 | 17.6% | 2.4% | 49 | +1.22 | 4.64 | 107 | 85 |
| Cam Alldred L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.60 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .323 | 4.25 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 132 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 332 | 85 |
| Austin Hamilton L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.92 | 17.0% | 15.6% | 2.3% | .329 | 4.18 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 109 | -0.74 | 4.06 | 135 | 85 |
| Jordan Mills L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 13.9% | 12.7% | 1.4% | .323 | 2.70 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 114 | -1.61 | 2.64 | 210 | 84 |
| Ivan Salas L 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.22 | 14.7% | 12.1% | 1.5% | .269 | 3.54 | 13.7% | 6.1% | 67 | -0.68 | 3.14 | 112 | 84 |
| Kirby Snead L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.45 | 15.4% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .300 | 3.19 | 25.5% | 16.0% | 92 | -1.26 | 2.09 | 365 | 84 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.54 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .268 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.96 | 1.84 | 238 | 84 |
| Luis Rico L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.43 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 2.6% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 199 | 83 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2028 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .269 | 4.20 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.05 | 3.46 | 145 | 83 |
| Seth Clark L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.30 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 2.2% | .287 | 5.13 | 18.4% | 0.6% | 82 | +0.83 | 4.30 | 128 | 83 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.11 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.3% | .320 | 5.97 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.86 | 4.11 | 158 | 82 |
| Brian Moran L 2029 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .318 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -2.03 | 1.67 | 421 | 82 |
| Josh Mitchell L 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.54 | 14.6% | 11.9% | 4.0% | .325 | 2.96 | 19.0% | 11.1% | 44 | -2.58 | 2.96 | 100 | 82 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.81 | 16.4% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .304 | 5.26 | 17.3% | 0.4% | 52 | +0.45 | 4.81 | 108 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 63 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 1.09 | 5.01 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |