Drew Beam — OGILVIE

Drew Beam P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 208 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION129 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 98

ERA4.29

FIP4.29

K%16.9%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4555

CTRL—60

CMD4050

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$9M	+$8M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+1.4	$8M	+$5M
2031	Arb-2	$8M	+1.3	$7M	+$2M
2032	Arb-3	$10M	+1.1	$6M	+$0.0M
Totals		$26M		$40M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	26	26	132	536	110	30	8	100%	5.1	15.8%	6.4%	9.4%	1.9%	3.83	3.62	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	26	26	132	536	110	30	8	100%	5.1	15.8%	6.4%	9.4%	1.9%	3.83	3.62	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	26	26	132	536	110	30	8	100%	5.1	20.5%	5.6%	14.9%	1.5%	3.83	2.90	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	26	26	129	564	99	41	20	100%	5.0	14.2%	8.0%	6.2%	4.3%	6.49	5.25	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	26	26	129	564	99	41	20	100%	5.0	14.2%	8.0%	6.2%	4.3%	6.49	5.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	KC	26	26	129	564	99	41	20	100%	5.0	17.6%	7.3%	10.3%	3.5%	6.49	4.48	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	KC	2	2	13	54	9	3	1	100%	6.4	16.9%	6.1%	10.8%	2.7%	4.29	4.29	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	142	618	108	44	21	—	—	17.5%	7.2%	10.3%	3.5%	6.29	5.16	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	KC	28	28	156	657	125	40	17	100%	5.6	19.0%	6.1%	12.9%	2.7%	4.17	4.10	+1.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	27	27	157	665	135	40	18	100%	5.8	20.3%	6.1%	14.3%	2.7%	4.07	4.00	+1.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	157	665	140	41	18	100%	6.1	21.1%	6.1%	15.0%	2.7%	4.00	3.95	+1.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	155	654	138	41	18	100%	6.0	21.1%	6.2%	14.9%	2.7%	4.00	3.99	+1.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	25	25	150	635	133	40	18	100%	6.0	21.0%	6.4%	14.6%	2.8%	4.05	4.08	+1.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	144	606	126	40	18	100%	6.0	20.7%	6.6%	14.1%	3.0%	4.14	4.21	+1.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	135	570	116	39	18	100%	6.1	20.4%	6.9%	13.5%	3.2%	4.29	4.38	+0.8
2034	31	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	126	531	106	38	18	100%	6.0	20.0%	7.2%	12.7%	3.4%	4.47	4.59	+0.5
2035	32	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	116	491	96	38	18	100%	6.1	19.5%	7.6%	11.9%	3.7%	4.68	4.81	+0.1
2036	33	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	107	451	86	36	18	100%	5.9	19.0%	8.1%	10.9%	3.9%	4.91	5.06	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	68	287	55	17	7	100%	5.7	19.0%	6.1%	12.9%	2.5%	4.06	3.99	+0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	105	443	90	27	11	100%	5.8	20.3%	6.1%	14.3%	2.5%	3.96	3.89	+1.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	21	21	125	528	111	32	13	100%	6.0	21.1%	6.1%	15.0%	2.5%	3.89	3.84	+1.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	132	557	118	35	14	100%	6.0	21.1%	6.2%	14.9%	2.5%	3.89	3.88	+1.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	134	566	119	36	15	100%	6.1	21.0%	6.4%	14.6%	2.6%	3.93	3.96	+1.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	131	553	115	36	15	100%	6.0	20.7%	6.6%	14.1%	2.8%	4.02	4.09	+1.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	21	21	124	524	107	36	15	100%	5.9	20.4%	6.9%	13.5%	3.0%	4.16	4.25	+0.8
2034	31	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	117	494	99	36	16	100%	5.8	20.0%	7.2%	12.7%	3.2%	4.33	4.45	+0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	109	460	90	35	16	100%	6.1	19.5%	7.6%	11.9%	3.4%	4.53	4.66	+0.1
2036	33	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	101	426	81	34	16	100%	5.9	19.0%	8.1%	10.9%	3.6%	4.75	4.90	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		193	193	1148	4846	985	326	138	100%	5.9	20.3%	6.7%	13.6%	2.8%	4.14	3.80	+15.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	172	57	24	100%	6.0	20.3%	6.7%	13.6%	2.8%	4.14	3.80	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		52	52	261	1100	165	80	34	100%	5.0	15.0%	7.2%	7.8%	3.1%	5.14	4.46	+10.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	40	200	844	127	61	26	100%	5.0	15.0%	7.2%	7.8%	3.1%	5.14	4.46	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Beam (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	16.9%	6.1%	2.7%	—	4.02	20.1%	14.1%	470	-0.27	—	—	—
Chad Kuhl R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	17.4%	5.7%	2.8%	.294	4.22	21.2%	11.9%	242	+0.30	3.92	983	93
Brady Feigl R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	15.9%	7.0%	2.3%	.333	5.26	19.4%	9.8%	122	+1.33	3.93	257	89
Austin Voth R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	23	SP	3.41	18.8%	6.7%	1.9%	.281	4.27	16.9%	8.4%	416	+0.86	3.41	1,057	88
Aaron Shortridge R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	14.7%	5.3%	2.8%	.288	5.24	11.8%	-1.6%	55	+1.18	4.06	401	88
Kyle Luckham R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.286	4.27	13.7%	6.7%	376	-0.13	3.78	501	88
Ivan Pineyro R 2015 · 3.53 FIP	23	SP	3.53	16.1%	7.2%	1.6%	.297	4.16	17.2%	10.7%	231	+0.63	3.53	422	87
Austin Coley R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	13.4%	4.8%	3.4%	.282	4.28	13.1%	5.7%	334	-0.14	3.58	506	87
Will Warren R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP	3.83	18.4%	8.6%	2.2%	.299	4.06	23.5%	14.5%	424	+0.23	3.82	695	87
Reggie McClain R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	15.0%	6.2%	3.3%	.315	4.26	16.2%	9.0%	227	-0.18	2.99	452	87
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	87
Jose Reyes R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	24	SP	4.25	14.6%	6.5%	2.8%	.289	5.11	11.0%	2.8%	100	+0.86	4.25	225	86
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.52	19.5%	13.8%	405	-0.79	2.69	522	86
Brian Howard R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP	4.11	19.3%	7.0%	3.2%	.269	4.55	17.4%	9.2%	255	+0.44	3.67	490	86
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	86
Jason Bahr R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.33	315	85
Jon Gray R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	23	SP	3.39	19.8%	7.7%	1.8%	.351	3.29	25.0%	17.8%	451	-0.10	2.93	1,345	85
Clayton Blackburn R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	15.2%	6.3%	3.1%	.288	3.17	17.1%	10.4%	96	-1.16	3.17	355	84
James Naile R 2016 · 3.48 FIP	23	SP	3.48	15.6%	6.3%	1.6%	.278	4.52	11.9%	4.3%	354	+1.04	3.39	709	84
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	84
Brady Rodgers R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SP	3.92	15.5%	5.2%	2.7%	.326	2.99	18.1%	13.6%	189	-0.93	1.98	354	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.8	141	19.9%	6.6%	1.16	4.25
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01