Drew Beam

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 208 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#337ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	A+KC	26	26	132	3.83	2.90	20.5%	5.6%	—	K 15.8% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.62
2026	23	AANorthwest Ark…	26	26	129	6.49	4.53	17.6%	7.3%	—	K 14.2% · BB 8.0% · FIP 5.25
2027PROJ	24	MLBKC	1	1	3	4.90	4.90	15.4%	7.1%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBKC	9	9	54	4.60	4.53	17.8%	7.0%	0.5
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBKC	13	13	77	4.48	4.41	19.2%	7.0%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$1M2034Ext$0.7M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.9 / P90 5.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 88%

CompsMicah Owings (age 24) · Reggie McClain (age 24) · Jose Reyes (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%15.4%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP152

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 152 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$28M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	26	26	132	536	110	30	8	100%	5.1	15.8%	6.4%	9.4%	1.9%	3.83	3.62	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	26	26	132	536	110	30	8	100%	5.1	15.8%	6.4%	9.4%	1.9%	3.83	3.62	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	26	26	132	536	110	30	8	100%	5.1	20.5%	5.6%	14.9%	1.5%	3.83	2.90	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	26	26	129	564	99	41	20	100%	5.0	14.2%	8.0%	6.2%	4.3%	6.49	5.25	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	26	26	129	564	99	41	20	100%	5.0	14.2%	8.0%	6.2%	4.3%	6.49	5.25	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	26	26	129	564	99	41	20	100%	5.0	17.6%	7.3%	10.3%	3.5%	6.49	4.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	KC	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	15.4%	7.1%	8.4%	3.3%	4.90	4.90	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	123	521	92	36	17	100%	5.9	17.8%	7.0%	10.7%	3.3%	4.74	4.67	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	115	486	93	34	16	100%	6.1	19.2%	7.0%	12.2%	3.3%	4.61	4.54	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	109	460	89	33	15	100%	6.1	19.3%	7.1%	12.2%	3.3%	4.58	4.56	+1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	103	435	84	32	15	100%	6.1	19.2%	7.3%	12.0%	3.4%	4.62	4.64	+0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	96	404	77	30	14	100%	6.0	19.0%	7.5%	11.5%	3.5%	4.71	4.77	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	87	366	68	29	14	100%	6.2	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	3.7%	4.85	4.95	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	78	327	60	27	13	100%	6.0	18.2%	8.2%	10.1%	4.0%	5.03	5.15	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	54	228	40	16	7	100%	6.0	17.8%	7.0%	10.7%	3.0%	4.60	4.53	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	77	325	62	23	10	100%	5.9	19.2%	7.0%	12.2%	3.0%	4.48	4.41	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	85	359	69	26	11	100%	6.1	19.3%	7.1%	12.2%	3.1%	4.44	4.42	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	87	367	71	27	12	100%	6.2	19.2%	7.3%	12.0%	3.1%	4.48	4.50	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	84	355	67	27	12	100%	6.0	19.0%	7.5%	11.5%	3.3%	4.56	4.62	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	78	329	61	26	11	100%	6.0	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	3.5%	4.70	4.80	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	71	300	55	24	11	100%	5.9	18.2%	8.2%	10.1%	3.7%	4.87	4.99	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	535	2261	426	168	73	100%	6.0	18.8%	7.4%	11.4%	3.2%	4.58	4.23	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	159	63	27	100%	6.0	18.8%	7.4%	11.4%	3.2%	4.58	4.23	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		52	52	261	1100	165	80	34	100%	5.0	15.0%	7.2%	7.8%	3.1%	5.14	4.46	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	40	200	844	127	61	26	100%	5.0	15.0%	7.2%	7.8%	3.1%	5.14	4.46	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 129 IPFIP 4.48 → 5.25 (+0.76)K% 17.6% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.55%	—	×0.810	14.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.100	8.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.55%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.26%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.48 → 5.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 132 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.62 (+0.73)K% 20.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.52%	—	×0.770	15.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.60%	—	×1.150	6.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷0.983	×1.250	1.90%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Beam (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.59	18.7%	11.7%	347	-0.31	—	—	—
Micah Owings R 2007 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.4%	3.1%	.264	4.75	16.4%	5.4%	258	+0.40	4.23	473	92
Reggie McClain R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	15.0%	6.2%	3.3%	.315	4.26	16.2%	9.0%	227	-0.18	2.99	452	89
Jose Reyes R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	24	SP	4.25	14.6%	6.5%	2.8%	.289	5.11	11.0%	2.8%	100	+0.86	4.25	225	89
Rainy Lara R 2015 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP	4.33	13.9%	7.5%	2.7%	.305	4.94	11.4%	2.4%	108	+0.61	4.33	242	88
Brady Feigl R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	15.9%	7.0%	2.3%	.333	5.26	19.4%	9.8%	122	+1.33	3.93	257	88
Trystan Vrieling R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	17.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.84	17.9%	5.3%	198	+0.82	4.02	345	88
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	87
Dustin Beggs R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	24	SP	5.07	13.0%	6.0%	4.2%	.283	3.87	17.5%	11.3%	210	-1.20	3.40	407	87
James Needy R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	14.2%	8.6%	3.1%	.326	2.82	18.1%	8.2%	36	-1.90	2.82	167	87
Blake Battenfield R 2019 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	13.7%	6.9%	3.5%	.302	4.52	13.7%	8.7%	106	-0.21	3.35	389	86
Kade Morris R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	16.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.282	4.36	15.6%	8.3%	264	-0.36	3.89	395	86
Ryan Hawks R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	13.6%	7.3%	4.4%	.303	5.12	13.6%	4.3%	221	-0.14	4.78	342	86
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.27	19.7%	10.4%	253	+0.39	3.86	496	86
Kendall Graveman R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP	4.46	14.8%	7.8%	2.9%	.288	4.52	14.5%	8.0%	360	+0.06	2.63	723	85
Lindsey Caughel R 2017 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	14.6%	6.5%	3.3%	.276	5.12	13.3%	5.0%	29	+0.63	4.49	187	85
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	85
Tyler Herb R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	17.2%	10.1%	2.5%	.298	4.67	15.7%	7.0%	378	+0.38	3.79	867	85
José López R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	24	SP	4.50	17.2%	7.2%	3.5%	.291	6.65	16.4%	4.8%	50	+2.15	3.12	543	84
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	84
Mike Vasil R 2024 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP	5.03	15.4%	7.7%	4.1%	.310	3.89	19.4%	8.3%	101	-1.14	3.63	429	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	108	18.2%	7.3%	1.33	4.75
Bob Sadowski ('63-'66, 2 WAR*)	2.2	110	17.7%*	8.0%*	1.20*	4.73*
Chris Flexen ('25)	3.5	115	16.1%	8.5%	1.38	4.83
Boof Bonser ('10)	2.1	104	18.2%	7.2%	1.36	5.18
Larry McWilliams ('78-'90, 10 WAR*)	7.8	130	19.0%*	8.1%*	1.24*	4.56*
Rod Nichols ('88-'95, 1 WAR*)	2.1	103	16.1%*	6.6%*	1.21*	4.64*
Rubby De La Rosa ('17)	2.1	105	19.6%	8.6%	1.32	4.49