Drew Beam
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 208 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.5 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
K%16.9%
BB%6.3%
K-BB%10.5%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 26 | 26 | 132 | 536 | 110 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.1 | 15.8% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 1.9% | 3.83 | 3.64 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 26 | 26 | 132 | 536 | 110 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.1 | 20.5% | 5.6% | 14.9% | 1.5% | 3.83 | 2.90 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 16 | 16 | 77 | 332 | 62 | 26 | 12 | 100% | 4.8 | 15.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 6.19 | 5.29 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 46 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.9% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 142 | 606 | 108 | 43 | 19 | — | — | 17.9% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 5.34 | 4.85 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.9% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.27 | 3.89 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 28 | 28 | 156 | 657 | 125 | 41 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.0% | 6.3% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.13 | +2.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 27 | 27 | 157 | 665 | 135 | 41 | 18 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.3% | 6.2% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.02 | +2.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 26 | 26 | 157 | 665 | 140 | 42 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.1% | 6.3% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 3.97 | +2.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 26 | 26 | 155 | 654 | 138 | 42 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 4.03 | 4.02 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 25 | 25 | 150 | 635 | 133 | 41 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.0% | 6.5% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.10 | +2.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | KC | 24 | 24 | 144 | 606 | 126 | 41 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 6.8% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.23 | +2.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 116 | 40 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 7.0% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.41 | +1.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 126 | 531 | 106 | 39 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.61 | +1.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 116 | 491 | 96 | 38 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.5% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 4.70 | 4.84 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 107 | 451 | 86 | 37 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.0% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 4.93 | 5.09 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 76 | 36 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 5.19 | 5.36 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 55 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.0% | 6.3% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 4.15 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 105 | 443 | 90 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.3% | 6.2% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 4.05 | 3.97 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 111 | 33 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 6.3% | 14.8% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 3.92 | +2.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 118 | 36 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 3.97 | +2.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 134 | 566 | 119 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.0% | 6.5% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 4.05 | +2.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 115 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 6.8% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.18 | +1.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 107 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 7.0% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 4.35 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 117 | 494 | 99 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.0% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.43 | 4.55 | +1.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 109 | 460 | 90 | 36 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.5% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 4.63 | 4.77 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 81 | 35 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.0% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 4.86 | 5.02 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 69 | 33 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 4.1% | 5.11 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 207 | 207 | 1237 | 5222 | 1054 | 366 | 160 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 7.0% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 3.97 | +20.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 170 | 59 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 7.0% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 3.97 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 42 | 42 | 209 | 868 | 135 | 63 | 25 | 100% | 5.0 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.27 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 40 | 200 | 832 | 129 | 60 | 24 | 100% | 5.0 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.27 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Beam (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 16.9% | 6.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.04 | 20.1% | 13.9% | 470 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Chad Kuhl R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.95 | 17.4% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .294 | 4.11 | 21.2% | 11.9% | 242 | +0.16 | 3.93 | 983 | 92 |
| Brady Feigl R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.81 | 15.9% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .333 | 5.77 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 122 | +1.96 | 3.81 | 257 | 89 |
| Trystan Vrieling R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.99 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .297 | 4.91 | 17.2% | 3.9% | 150 | +0.92 | 3.99 | 297 | 88 |
| Austin Voth R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.43 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 1.9% | .281 | 4.25 | 16.9% | 8.4% | 416 | +0.82 | 3.43 | 1,132 | 88 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.80 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 2.1% | .299 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 14.5% | 424 | +0.26 | 3.80 | 651 | 87 |
| Aaron Shortridge R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.97 | 14.7% | 5.3% | 2.6% | .288 | 5.14 | 11.8% | -1.6% | 55 | +1.17 | 3.97 | 378 | 87 |
| Kyle Luckham R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.58 | 14.5% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .286 | 4.39 | 13.8% | 6.6% | 357 | -0.19 | 4.01 | 482 | 87 |
| Ivan Pineyro R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.55 | 16.1% | 7.2% | 1.6% | .297 | 4.19 | 17.2% | 10.7% | 231 | +0.64 | 3.55 | 422 | 87 |
| Austin Coley R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.22 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.21 | 13.1% | 5.7% | 334 | -0.01 | 3.55 | 506 | 87 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.58 | 16.8% | 6.4% | 3.8% | .300 | 4.65 | 17.2% | 7.2% | 281 | +0.07 | 4.04 | 402 | 87 |
| Rhett Lowder R 2025 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.27 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 1.6% | .301 | 4.45 | 18.6% | 7.9% | 70 | +1.18 | 3.27 | 203 | 87 |
| Austin Peterson R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.28 | 15.0% | 6.3% | 3.0% | .335 | 3.45 | 20.0% | 13.7% | 362 | -0.83 | 2.67 | 479 | 86 |
| Jose Reyes R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .289 | 5.03 | 11.0% | 2.8% | 100 | +0.81 | 4.22 | 225 | 86 |
| Grant Rogers R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.07 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .297 | 4.47 | 13.4% | 6.7% | 230 | +0.40 | 4.07 | 342 | 86 |
| Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.60 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.05 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 155 | +0.45 | 3.27 | 315 | 85 |
| Brian Howard R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.04 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .269 | 4.63 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 255 | +0.59 | 3.70 | 490 | 85 |
| Jonathan Cannon R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.71 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .311 | 4.59 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 364 | -0.12 | 4.33 | 485 | 85 |
| Mitchell Kilkenny R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.46 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 2.1% | .290 | 5.81 | 13.4% | 5.1% | 124 | +2.35 | 3.18 | 237 | 84 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.32 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.09 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.23 | 3.09 | 129 | 84 |
| Clayton Blackburn R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.21 | 15.2% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .288 | 3.11 | 17.1% | 10.4% | 96 | -1.10 | 3.11 | 355 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 12 | 138 | 19.9% | 6.9% | 1.19 | 4.33 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS | 9 | 125 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 4.25 |
| Dallas Keuchel ('23) | 9 | 132 | 18.7% | 7.3% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Alex Wood ('24) | 9 | 111 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 0.96 | 3.98 |