Drew Beam — OGILVIE

Drew Beam P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

+1.5 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 208 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.2 · 2029

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.5%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%11.7%

IP120

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2029

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	26	26	132	536	110	30	8	15.8%	6.4%	1.9%	3.83	3.62	+2.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	2	2	8	36	4	4	3	—	—	—	4.32	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	KC	22	22	120	507	99	39	13	19.5%	7.7%	2.7%	4.27	4.27	+1.4
2026 Total	23	MLB	KC	—	—	128	543	103	43	16	18.9%	7.9%	3.0%	4.27	3.99	+1.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	KC	25	25	139	587	120	44	16	20.5%	7.5%	2.7%	4.20	4.16	+1.8
2028	25	MLB	KC	28	28	153	645	136	48	17	21.1%	7.4%	2.7%	4.14	4.10	+2.1
2029	26	MLB	KC	29	29	160	674	144	50	18	21.3%	7.4%	2.7%	4.11	4.09	+2.2
2030	27	MLB	KC	30	30	162	686	146	51	19	21.3%	7.4%	2.7%	4.10	4.10	+2.2
2031	28	MLB	KC	29	29	162	684	146	51	19	21.3%	7.4%	2.7%	4.12	4.13	+2.2
2032	29	MLB	KC	29	29	158	669	142	50	19	21.2%	7.5%	2.8%	4.15	4.17	+2.0
2033	30	MLB	KC	28	28	154	649	136	49	18	21.0%	7.6%	2.8%	4.20	4.23	+1.9
2034	31	MLB	KC	27	27	148	626	130	49	18	20.7%	7.8%	2.9%	4.26	4.31	+1.7
2035	32	MLB	KC	26	26	142	601	123	47	18	20.5%	7.9%	3.0%	4.34	4.40	+1.5
2036	33	MLB	KC	25	25	136	574	116	46	18	20.2%	8.1%	3.1%	4.43	4.49	+1.2
2037	34	MLB	KC	23	23	129	546	108	45	17	19.8%	8.3%	3.2%	4.53	4.60	+1.0
2038	35	MLB	KC	22	22	122	514	100	44	17	19.4%	8.5%	3.3%	4.65	4.72	+0.8
2039	36	MLB	KC	21	21	114	481	91	42	16	19.0%	8.8%	3.4%	4.78	4.86	+0.6
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			28	28	140	572	89	38	13	15.5%	6.7%	2.3%	3.86	3.90	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—			40	40	200	817	127	54	19	15.5%	6.7%	2.3%	3.86	3.90	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Beam (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	19.5%	7.7%	2.7%	—	4.11	21.0%	13.6%	451	-0.16	—	—	—
Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP-	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.32	315	96
Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP-	3.66	20.4%	7.3%	2.5%	.315	3.76	18.2%	12.0%	120	+0.10	3.66	229	95
Reid Johnston R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP-	3.74	19.4%	6.1%	2.7%	.297	5.02	19.5%	5.6%	92	+1.28	3.74	204	94
Alex FaGalde R 2027 · 3.79 FIP	24	SP-	3.79	19.1%	6.7%	2.7%	.266	4.98	16.1%	6.4%	162	+1.19	3.79	279	93
Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.98	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.84	494	93
Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP-	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	1.9%	.280	3.89	20.4%	11.7%	142	+0.34	3.55	252	92
Grant Rogers R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP-	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	3.89	14.2%	7.6%	150	-0.19	3.89	262	92
Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP-	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.61	15.0%	6.8%	236	+1.41	3.05	395	92
Colton Eastman R 2025 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	19.4%	7.9%	3.4%	.304	4.97	17.0%	2.8%	155	+0.64	4.19	349	91
Jack Cushing R 2027 · 3.68 FIP	24	SP-	3.68	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.69	18.2%	11.3%	332	+1.01	3.68	523	91
Garrett Edwards R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	18.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	107	91
James Hicks R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.338	4.35	17.5%	10.4%	61	+0.12	3.67	167	91
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	23	SP-	4.38	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	-0.01	3.50	368	91
Brett Conine R 2025 · 3.21 FIP	22	SP-	3.21	22.3%	7.2%	2.0%	.290	5.79	15.4%	4.9%	205	+2.58	3.21	319	90
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2027 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	17.6%	5.5%	2.4%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.15	3.18	237	90
Gabe Mosser R 2026 · 3.77 FIP	23	SP-	3.77	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.58	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.81	3.35	541	90
Austin Cates R 2025 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP-	3.95	19.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	110	90
Will Warren R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	18.4%	8.6%	2.2%	.299	4.10	24.1%	14.5%	424	+0.27	3.31	571	89
R.J. Gordon R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP-	4.31	21.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	129	89
Brian Edgington R 2028 · 3.97 FIP	25	SP-	3.97	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.23	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.26	3.97	171	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+2.2	$19M	+$18M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.2	$20M	+$19M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.2	$20M	+$20M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.0	$19M	+$15M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+1.9	$19M	+$12M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$9M	+1.7	$17M	+$8M
Totals		$24M		$114M	+$91M