Ethan Flanagan

P South Bend Cubs

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	14	14	63	2.14	2.42	25.3%	9.5%	—	K 17.6% · BB 11.4% · FIP 3.40
2026	24	MIX2 levels	18	7	68	3.46	3.44	27.4%	7.1%	—	K 20.7% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.66
2027PROJ	25	MLBCHC	10	10	70	4.91	4.91	19.1%	10.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCHC	4	4	30	4.77	4.77	19.7%	10.4%	0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCHC	6	6	43	4.75	4.77	20.0%	10.4%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsLuis Leroy Cruz (age 24) · Justin Marks (age 27) · Will Johnston (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%19.1%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	63	253	64	24	1	100%	4.5	17.6%	11.4%	6.2%	0.6%	2.14	3.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	63	253	64	24	1	100%	4.5	17.6%	11.4%	6.2%	0.6%	2.14	3.40	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	63	253	64	24	1	100%	4.5	25.3%	9.5%	15.8%	0.4%	2.14	2.42	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	68	281	77	20	9	39%	3.8	20.7%	8.4%	12.4%	4.1%	3.46	4.66	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	68	281	77	20	9	39%	3.8	20.7%	8.4%	12.4%	4.1%	3.46	4.66	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	7	68	281	77	20	9	39%	3.8	27.4%	7.1%	20.3%	3.2%	3.46	3.44	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CHC	10	10	70	296	56	31	9	100%	7.0	19.1%	10.6%	8.4%	3.1%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	70	296	58	31	9	100%	7.0	19.7%	10.4%	9.2%	3.1%	4.83	4.83	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	69	291	58	30	9	100%	6.9	20.0%	10.4%	9.5%	3.1%	4.81	4.83	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	67	282	57	30	9	100%	6.7	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	3.2%	4.84	4.88	+0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	64	270	54	29	9	100%	7.1	19.9%	10.7%	9.2%	3.4%	4.93	5.00	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	4	4	30	127	25	13	4	100%	7.5	19.7%	10.4%	9.2%	3.0%	4.77	4.77	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	43	182	36	19	5	100%	7.2	20.0%	10.4%	9.5%	3.0%	4.75	4.77	+0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	50	211	42	22	7	100%	7.1	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	3.1%	4.77	4.81	+0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	52	220	44	24	7	100%	6.5	19.9%	10.7%	9.2%	3.2%	4.86	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	25	176	742	148	78	23	100%	7.0	19.9%	10.5%	9.4%	3.1%	4.79	4.45	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		29	29	200	844	168	89	26	100%	6.9	19.9%	10.5%	9.4%	3.1%	4.79	4.45	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		32	21	131	534	103	52	13	66%	4.1	19.2%	9.8%	9.4%	2.4%	2.82	4.06	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	32	200	817	157	80	20	66%	4.1	19.2%	9.8%	9.4%	2.4%	2.82	4.06	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Flanagan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	19.1%	10.6%	3.1%	—	4.85	19.9%	9.4%	206	-0.06	—	—	—
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	80
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	80
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	79
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	79
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	79
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	78
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	78
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	78
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	78
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	78
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	77
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	77
Alex Cornwell L 2024 · 3.82 FIP	25	SP-	3.82	18.6%	9.9%	1.9%	.355	4.57	14.4%	4.8%	93	+0.75	3.16	381	77
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	77
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	77
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	77
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	76
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	76
Brian Duensing L 2009 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	14.8%	8.4%	1.9%	.286	3.90	15.2%	9.3%	401	-0.08	2.57	799	76
Charlie Furbush L 2011 · 4.95 FIP	25	SW	4.95	18.0%	7.5%	4.4%	.310	2.67	28.8%	21.4%	154	-2.28	2.40	261	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	19.7%	10.5%	1.22	4.86
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*