Ali Camarillo — OGILVIE

Ali CamarilloSS Lansing Lugnuts

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 180 lbs A+ HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION587 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP316

ISO68

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$28M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	57	50	13	1	0	0	6	6	0	3	2	260	339	280	619	20	295	11	11	286	80	-1	-0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2025	22	A	Stockton Ports	—	354	311	79	15	1	1	32	62	5	15	3	254	333	318	652	64	308	18	9	297	87	-5	+2	—	—	+8	0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	57	52	11	1	0	0	4	8	0	3	2	212	268	231	499	19	246	14	7	223	37	-4	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	354	322	69	12	1	1	21	82	5	15	3	214	273	267	540	53	270	23	6	240	49	-22	+2	—	—	+8	-1.2
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	411	374	80	13	1	1	25	91	5	18	5	214	272	262	534	48	275	22	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	411	361	92	16	1	1	38	68	5	18	5	255	334	313	647	58	306	17	9	295	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	411	378	80	13	1	1	25	91	5	18	5	212	272	259	532	48	267	22	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	411	378	80	13	1	1	25	91	5	18	5	212	272	259	532	48	267	22	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	OAK	—	587	529	142	33	1	8	37	124	12	29	3	268	330	380	710	112	333	21	6	307	94	-4	+5	+0	+6	+13	2.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A RAW	OAK	—	96	81	28	7	1	3	9	22	4	8	0	346	436	568	1.004	222	431	23	9	432	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ RAW	OAK	—	389	342	97	23	0	5	32	56	8	20	1	284	359	395	753	111	323	14	8	336	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA RAW	OAK	—	102	89	33	9	0	1	13	16	0	1	2	371	451	506	957	135	444	16	13	427	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A+ MLE	OAK	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		309	22	11	294	85	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	23	A+ MLE	OAK	—	596	537	143	33	1	8	38	126	12	29	3	266	329	376	705	110	330	21	6	307	94	-4	+5	+0	+6	+13	2.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	OAK	30%	581	531	131	28	1	7	37	121	8	15	2	247	306	343	648	96	305	21	6	293	84	-11	+2	+0	+6	+13	1.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	44%	503	458	113	24	1	7	33	104	7	12	2	247	307	349	657	103	305	21	7	300	89	-7	+2	+0	+5	+11	1.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	51%	627	570	143	30	1	11	43	130	9	14	2	251	314	365	678	114	304	21	7	304	92	-6	+2	+0	+7	+14	1.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	52%	638	580	144	30	1	11	44	133	9	14	2	248	311	360	672	112	304	21	7	304	92	-6	+2	+0	+7	+14	1.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	53%	637	578	143	30	1	11	45	134	9	13	2	247	312	360	672	112	303	21	7	303	92	-6	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	53%	629	570	141	30	1	10	45	133	9	12	2	247	312	356	669	109	303	21	7	302	90	-7	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	52%	504	456	113	24	1	8	36	108	7	9	1	248	313	357	670	110	302	21	7	299	89	-7	+1	-2	+5	+11	0.9
2034	31	MLB MLE	OAK	56%	491	446	108	23	1	7	35	107	7	8	1	242	307	345	653	103	300	22	7	295	86	-8	+1	-3	+5	+11	0.6
2035	32	MLB MLE	OAK	54%	473	431	103	21	1	7	33	105	6	7	1	239	302	341	643	102	297	22	7	290	82	-10	+1	-4	+5	+10	0.3
2036	33	MLB MLE	OAK	58%	444	404	95	19	1	6	31	101	6	6	1	235	299	332	631	97	293	23	7	283	78	-12	+1	-4	+5	+10	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	OAK	30%	176	160	40	9	0	2	11	37	3	5	1	250	310	344	654	94	311	21	6	286	84	-3	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	44%	223	203	50	11	0	3	15	46	3	5	1	246	308	345	653	99	311	21	7	294	89	-3	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	51%	318	288	74	16	1	5	22	66	5	7	1	257	321	372	692	115	310	21	7	297	92	-3	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	52%	335	304	78	17	1	6	23	70	5	7	1	257	319	378	698	122	310	21	7	298	92	-3	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	53%	340	308	79	17	1	6	24	71	5	7	1	256	320	377	697	120	310	21	7	297	92	-3	+1	-0	+4	+7	0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	53%	330	299	75	16	1	5	23	70	5	6	1	251	315	361	676	110	309	21	7	296	90	-4	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	52%	263	238	59	13	0	4	19	56	4	5	1	248	314	353	667	105	308	21	7	293	89	-4	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	OAK	56%	276	250	61	13	0	4	20	60	4	4	1	244	310	344	654	100	306	22	7	289	86	-5	+0	-2	+3	+6	0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	OAK	54%	256	233	56	12	0	4	18	57	3	4	1	240	303	343	646	103	303	22	7	284	82	-5	+0	-2	+3	+6	0.1
2036	33	MLB CTX	OAK	58%	256	233	55	12	0	3	18	58	3	3	1	236	299	326	625	90	299	23	7	277	78	-7	+0	-2	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2773	2516	627	136	4	42	193	591	40	53	10	249	313	357	669	107	308	21	7	292	85	-40	+7	-8	+30	+60	4.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	147	32	1	10	45	139	9	12	2	249	312	358	669	108	309	21	7	292	85	-9	+2	-2	+7	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5947	5406	1315	272	11	86	408	1269	82	128	21	243	306	345	651	102	301	21	7	294	85	-81	+16	-15	+59	+120	10.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	143	30	1	9	45	139	9	14	2	242	305	342	647	100	300	21	7	294	85	-9	+2	-2	+7	+14	1.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	8.4	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
/162	664	7	18	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
#2Alcides Escobarlast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,178 PA	9.3	6,178	45	178	258	295	345	+66	+92	19.2	18.2
/162	664	5	19	+7.1	+9.9	2.1	pk7: 17
#3Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
/162	664	17	9	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#4Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6José Perazalast yr '21 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,134 PA	3.2	2,134	35	76	266	307	373	+14	+31	8.6	8.6
/162	664	11	24	+4.5	+9.7	2.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	4.2	2,774	43	54	247	307	354	+30	+15	7.1	6.6
/162	664	10	13	+7.1	+3.6	1.7	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ali Camarillo (OGILVIE)	23	45	20	50	35	247/307/338	91	309	3	13	21%	6%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gabriel Mejia 2018 · A	23	48	35→30	52→70	44	226/273/282	56	287	2	22	21%	6%	58	-1.7	210/261/270	60	292	3	13	27%	6%	51	-2.3	209/265/254	44	270	0	10	21%	6%	47	-0.5
✕Erlin Cerda 2017 · A	23	44	36→40	51→55	42	205/266/275	70	280	2	11	26%	6%	55	-2.0	195/240/267	72	302	3	8	34%	5%	42	-2.9	164/198/208	44	258	0	8	35%	4%	9	-1.2
✕Juan Herrera 2016 · A	23	49→51	35→30	49→50	41	228/268/290	62	290	2	16	22%	4%	58	-1.7	200/240/268	68	273	4	9	27%	4%	42	-2.9	171/201/226	56	242	2	5	29%	3%	15	-2.1
✕Blake Rambusch 2023 · A	23	48	37→30	52→65	43	220/289/294	74	319	4	14	30%	7%	68	-1.0	230/314/295	65	316	3	29	25%	9%	78	-0.3	249/326/297	48	311	1	47	18%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Keith Grieshaber 2017 · A	22	48	35→40	51→55	39	224/268/291	66	297	2	11	24%	4%	59	-1.7	233/294/321	88	294	5	17	21%	6%	76	-0.4	244/313/339	94	299	6	26	19%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Humberto Castro 2014 · AAA	23	47	38→30	50→45	43	225/272/299	74	264	6	8	17%	4%	62	-1.4	235/288/313	78	290	5	8	20%	5%	72	-0.7	263/320/320	57	310	3	5	15%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Omar Casamayor 2010 · A	23	48	35→40	46→55	42	227/272/287	60	283	2	12	20%	4%	59	-1.7	227/274/291	64	293	3	8	22%	5%	61	-1.5	256/297/297	41	315	0	2	18%	5%	66	-0.3
✕Kelby Tomlinson 2013 · A	23	46→56	36→40	55→60	45	216/273/279	63	287	3	20	25%	7%	58	-1.7	237/289/301	64	313	3	23	23%	6%	68	-1.0	279/337/345	67	339	3	24	17%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Tyler Filliben 2016 · A	23	47	36→30	47→45	45	221/280/289	68	281	3	9	22%	6%	63	-1.3	190/244/264	74	257	4	8	27%	5%	44	-2.8	131/182/185	54	182	2	5	28%	3%	1	-2.4
✕Mike Martin 2017 · A	24	45	36→30	51→55	44	211/278/271	60	288	4	14	27%	7%	59	-1.7	230/280/302	72	291	4	18	21%	6%	65	-1.2	243/288/302	60	299	2	27	18%	5%	66	-0.6
✕DJ Jenkins 2017 · A	23	45	34→30	50→55	43	214/263/264	51	276	2	17	23%	6%	50	-2.3	213/262/257	44	302	2	14	28%	6%	48	-2.5	209/257/239	30	298	1	15	29%	5%	39	-1.5
✕Bryson Brigman 2018 · A	23	46→56	36→40	47→50	44	219/267/280	62	273	3	10	21%	6%	55	-1.9	240/292/311	71	303	3	10	20%	6%	72	-0.7	251/308/329	77	314	4	11	20%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Luis Rivera 2007 · A	23	47	35→30	51→45	40	220/255/275	55	273	3	13	20%	4%	49	-2.4	225/259/279	54	268	2	6	16%	4%	51	-2.2	234/265/275	40	274	1	3	14%	3%	49	-0.9
✕Alberto Robles 2014 · A	23	54	36→30	50→55	46	252/301/318	66	295	3	16	16%	5%	76	-0.4	222/264/304	82	267	6	13	19%	5%	60	-1.6	204/238/270	66	239	5	15	17%	4%	40	-1.2
✕Tadd Brewer 2007 · A	23	47	36→30	47→50	46	218/283/291	73	264	3	9	18%	6%	65	-1.2	200/259/272	72	274	3	8	26%	6%	51	-2.2	186/255/248	63	270	0	9	29%	7%	42	-1.0
✕Pablo Olivares 2021 · A	23	46→43	37→40	46→50	46	217/293/289	72	275	5	14	22%	7%	69	-0.9	207/282/294	87	273	5	12	24%	8%	65	-1.2	192/271/278	86	259	4	12	25%	8%	56	-0.7
✕Adam Godwin 2006 · A	23	49→54	36→30	46→55	40	229/270/300	70	292	3	12	22%	4%	61	-1.5	239/285/302	63	296	2	21	19%	5%	67	-1.1	245/295/303	58	300	2	26	18%	6%	68	-0.7
✕Davis Bradshaw 2021 · A	23	46	36→40	52→50	39	219/261/285	66	286	3	12	24%	4%	55	-2.0	252/305/325	73	319	4	11	21%	5%	80	-0.1	271/324/338	67	344	3	10	21%	5%	87	+0.2
✕Luke Willis 2016 · A	23	46	34→40	54→50	43	216/263/270	55	273	2	12	21%	5%	52	-2.2	233/285/307	74	318	5	12	26%	6%	69	-0.9	257/310/329	72	354	6	15	27%	6%	80	-0.0
✕Roy Morales 2018 · A	23	51	37→30	49→45	50	237/302/304	67	277	4	8	16%	7%	75	-0.5	229/291/303	74	284	4	10	20%	7%	70	-0.8	271/334/327	56	322	3	8	16%	7%	89	+0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps