Ali Camarillo

SS Lansing Lugnuts
Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 180 lbs A+ HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037
OGV OFP35OGV rank#735ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202522A+/AOAK411.255/.334/.31311848—.217/.275/.265
202623AA/A+/AOAK591.308/.387/.44292994—.270/.331/.377
2027PROJMLE24MLBOAK1.241/.300/.33500750.0
2028PROJ28% MLB25MLBOAK72.244/.304/.34812790.2
2029PROJ43% MLB26MLBOAK132.245/.306/.35623820.3
Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$0.4M+2
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
wOBA96
wRC+94
Whiff%94
K%93
Z-Con%86
Chase%70
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 95%
CompsJack Reinheimer (age 24) · Jimmy Mojica (age 24) · Bryson Brigman (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†75
AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .300 / .335
PA1
HR0
K%20
BB%6
BABIP296
ISO83
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +1.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +1.6 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+2FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.40+0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.30.40.30.30.127282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.9M+$0.3M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $2M +$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202522 A+Lansing Lugnuts — 5750 13100 660 32 260339280619 20295 1111 286 41 — — — — — —
202522 AStockton Ports — 354311 791511 32625 153 254333318652 64308 189 297 49 — — — — — —
202623 AAMidland RockHounds — 10693 341001 13160 12 366443505949 140434 1512 423 128 — — — — — —
202623 A+Lansing Lugnuts — 389342 972305 32568 201 284359395753 111323 148 336 78 — — — — — —
202623 AStockton Ports — 9681 28713 9224 80 3464365681.004 222431 239 432 119 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202522 A+ MLELansing Lugnuts — 5752 12100 480 32 231286250536 19251 147 229 41 — — — — — —
202522 A MLEStockton Ports — 354322 691211 21845 153 214273267540 53273 246 240 49 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 10697 32901 9200 12 330387454840 124397 198 358 128 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLELansing Lugnuts — 389351 881904 23718 201 251312339651 88292 186 284 78 — — — — — —
202623 A MLEStockton Ports — 9685 24612 5304 80 282351447798 165372 315 344 119 — — — — — —
202522 A MLE2 teams — 411374 811311 25915 185 217275265539 48279 226 238 48 — — — — — —
202522 A RAW2 teams — 411361 921611 38685 185 255334313647 58306 179 295 48 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLE3 teams — 591533 1433317 3712112 293 268330373703 105331 206 307 94 — — — — — —
202623 A+ RAW3 teams — 591516 1594019 549412 293 308387442828 134358 169 367 94 — — — — — —
202522 A MLE2 teams — 411378 811311 25915 185 214275262537 48270 226 238 48 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLE3 teams — 591537 1433317 3712112 293 266330371700 104324 206 307 94 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202522 A MLE2 teams — 411378 811311 25915 185 214275262537 48270 226 238 48 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLE3 teams — 591537 1433317 3712112 293 266330371700 104324 206 307 94 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLEOAK 0% 380348 821814 24775 102 234293322615 89286 206 279 75 -11 +1 +3 +4 +8 0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXOAK 0% 11 0000 000 00 241300335635 94296 00 287 75 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLEOAK 28% 260237 561213 17534 61 236297335632 99287 207 285 79 -6 +1 +2 +3 +6 0.5
202926 MLB MLEOAK 43% 305278 671415 20624 71 238299343642 106287 207 289 82 -7 +1 +2 +3 +7 0.7
203027 MLB MLEOAK 50% 321292 701515 22664 71 237299344643 107287 217 290 82 -7 +1 +3 +3 +7 0.7
203128 MLB MLEOAK 54% 328299 711515 22684 61 236298343641 107287 217 289 82 -7 +1 +2 +4 +7 0.6
203229 MLB MLEOAK 55% 321292 681415 22684 51 234297340637 106286 217 287 80 -7 +1 +1 +3 +7 0.5
203330 MLB MLEOAK 56% 314286 671415 21684 51 231293333626 102284 227 283 78 -8 +1 +0 +3 +7 0.3
202825 MLB CTXOAK 28% 7266 16401 5151 20 244304348652 104297 217 293 79 -2 +0 +1 +1 +2 0.2
202926 MLB CTXOAK 43% 132120 29702 9272 31 245306356661 111297 207 297 82 -3 +0 +1 +1 +3 0.3
203027 MLB CTXOAK 50% 161147 35802 11332 41 244306356662 112297 207 297 82 -3 +0 +1 +2 +3 0.4
203128 MLB CTXOAK 54% 178162 39903 12372 31 243305355660 112297 217 297 82 -4 +0 +1 +2 +4 0.3
203229 MLB CTXOAK 55% 178162 39903 12382 31 241303352656 111296 217 295 80 -4 +0 +1 +2 +4 0.3
203330 MLB CTXOAK 56% 176160 39903 12382 31 238300345645 106294 227 290 78 -5 +0 +0 +2 +4 0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 897817 19746014 6118811 185 241303349651 108295 217 295 78 -21 +2 +5 +10 +19 1.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650592 14233010 441368 134 240301346648 106293 217 295 78 -15 +1 +3 +7 +14 1.1
Career— MLE — 30612783 668140838 19963944 8915 240301337638 97296 217 284 78 -49 +6 +12 +22 +45 3.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650591 1423028 421369 193 240301338639 98296 216 284 78 -16 +2 +4 +7 +14 1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 389 PAwOBA .330 → .284 (−46)K% 14.4% → 18.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.40%÷1.000×1.270——18.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.23%÷1.000×0.710—×0.9985.83%
HBP% /PA2.06%—×0.790—×0.9981.62%
Singles /BIP24.13%÷1.000×0.920×1.019×0.99822.57%
Doubles /BIP8.04%÷1.000×0.810×1.019×0.9986.62%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850×1.019×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP1.75%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9981.40%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .330 → .284; ISO .111 → .091; BABIP .323 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 106 PAwOBA .412 → .358 (−54)K% 15.1% → 18.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.09%÷1.000×1.220——18.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.26%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0278.82%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP29.87%÷1.000×0.920×0.997×1.02728.13%
Doubles /BIP12.99%÷1.000×0.840×0.997×1.02711.17%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.940×0.997×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP1.30%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0271.07%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .412 → .358; ISO .140 → .119; BABIP .434 → .397. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AStockton Ports · 96 PAwOBA .426 → .344 (−83)K% 22.9% → 31.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.92%÷1.000×1.360——31.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.33%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9905.69%
HBP% /PA4.17%—×0.780—×0.9903.22%
Singles /BIP28.81%÷1.000×0.920×0.986×0.99025.87%
Doubles /BIP11.86%÷1.000×0.830×0.986×0.9909.61%
Triples /BIP1.69%÷1.000×0.910×0.986×0.9901.51%
Home runs /BIP5.08%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9904.03%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .426 → .344; ISO .222 → .175; BABIP .431 → .372. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AStockton Ports · 354 PAwOBA .293 → .240 (−52)K% 17.5% → 23.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.51%÷1.011×1.360——23.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.76%÷1.029×0.690——5.87%
HBP% /PA1.41%—×0.780——1.10%
Singles /BIP24.90%÷1.003×0.920×0.985—22.49%
Doubles /BIP6.02%÷0.990×0.830×0.985—4.97%
Triples /BIP0.40%÷1.150×0.910×0.985—0.31%
Home runs /BIP0.40%÷1.113×0.800——0.29%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .293 → .240; ISO .064 → .051; BABIP .308 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 57 PAwOBA .280 → .229 (−51)K% 10.5% → 13.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.53%÷0.969×1.270——13.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.53%÷1.048×0.710—×1.0127.22%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.790—×1.0120.00%
Singles /BIP27.27%÷1.078×0.920×0.999×1.01223.52%
Doubles /BIP2.27%÷1.199×0.810×0.999×1.0121.55%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.850×0.999×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.921×0.800—×1.0120.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 116, 2B 140, 3B 130, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .280 → .229; ISO .020 → .014; BABIP .295 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).