Travis Adams
P
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 197 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.9 · 2027
ERA5.69
FIP4.50
xFIP5.14
SIERA4.66
K%19.8%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%10.8%
IP110
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2027
K†5050
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p5225.6%
K%
p3219.6%
xwOBA vs
p100.393
SI (11%)
CU (4%)
FB-1.4 (41%)
CH-2.1 (17%)
CT-2.2 (19%)
SL-3.0 (20%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 20.25 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 22 | 22 | 101 | 412 | 108 | 26 | 8 | 19.7% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 3.93 | 3.76 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 26 | 25 | 110 | 479 | 97 | 43 | 16 | 16.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 5.66 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 26 | 22 | 127 | 523 | 118 | 35 | 13 | 18.4% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 3.90 | 4.29 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 41 | 7 | 102 | 449 | 95 | 40 | 11 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 5.10 | 3.82 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIN | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 39 | 17 | 6 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 5.88 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 45 | 190 | 41 | 17 | 6 | 21.7% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 5.75 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 114 | 480 | 101 | 43 | 16 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 101 | 43 | 16 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 111 | 470 | 97 | 42 | 15 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 108 | 456 | 92 | 41 | 15 | 20.1% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 104 | 440 | 86 | 40 | 15 | 19.5% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.85 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 80 | 39 | 15 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 4.97 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 74 | 38 | 14 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 5.02 | 5.09 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 91 | 383 | 67 | 37 | 14 | 17.5% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 5.15 | 5.23 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 86 | 361 | 61 | 35 | 14 | 16.8% | 9.8% | 3.8% | 5.29 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 80 | 338 | 54 | 34 | 13 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 5.45 | 5.55 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 117 | 77 | 442 | 1874 | 348 | 159 | 53 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.16 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 35 | 200 | 848 | 157 | 72 | 24 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.16 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Travis Adams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | — | 4.63 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 339 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Manny Barreda R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.08 | 21.2% | 14.7% | 3.5% | .286 | 3.67 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 186 | -1.41 | 3.25 | 376 | 82 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 80 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 79 |
| Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.72 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.80 | 25.0% | 11.7% | 140 | +0.08 | 1.58 | 544 | 79 |
| Tyler Bashlor R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.81 | 20.7% | 11.7% | 3.6% | .258 | 4.07 | 23.7% | 13.0% | 38 | -0.74 | 2.55 | 253 | 79 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 78 |
| Matt Festa R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.68 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .246 | 4.05 | 29.9% | 23.0% | 75 | -0.63 | 2.56 | 414 | 78 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 78 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 78 |
| Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.69 | 24.4% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.65 | 25.1% | 14.5% | 132 | -0.04 | 3.19 | 446 | 77 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 77 |
| Nick Robertson R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.55 | 20.6% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .342 | 4.78 | 20.5% | 6.4% | 52 | +0.23 | 3.43 | 281 | 77 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 77 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 77 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.13 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 4.1% | .267 | 2.91 | 26.9% | 15.2% | 69 | -2.22 | 1.48 | 230 | 77 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 77 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 77 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 76 |
| Zach Bryant R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .313 | 4.56 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 48 | -0.30 | 4.56 | 158 | 76 |
| Thyago Vieira R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 311 | 76 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.384 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.8 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $10M | $18M | +$8M | ||