Erian Rodriguez

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

Scout OFP42ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	24	13	87	3.41	3.08	20.8%	10.1%	—	K 15.7% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.90
2025	23	MIX3 levels	18	18	90	3.19	3.30	20.2%	9.3%	—	K 16.1% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.81
2026	24	MIX2 levels	19	2	40	7.20	5.47	14.9%	16.8%	—	K 11.4% · BB 19.9% · FIP 6.14
2027PROJ	25	MLBCHC	57	0	60	5.68	5.68	14.1%	14.9%	-0.7
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCHC	34	0	36	5.47	5.43	16.1%	14.2%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCHC	49	0	51	5.38	5.38	16.6%	13.8%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff49Control43Command45FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsCooper Adams (age 24) · Robbie Peto (age 25) · Tom Reisinger (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.68

FIP5.68

K%14.1%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%-0.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL5045

CMD4545

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	11	1	12	63	15	10	1	9%	1.1	16.2%	19.8%	-3.7%	2.3%	11.57	5.51	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	11	1	12	63	15	10	1	9%	1.1	23.8%	15.9%	7.9%	1.6%	11.57	4.21	—
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	26	3	69	320	74	45	5	12%	2.7	17.1%	16.6%	0.5%	2.1%	6.49	4.92	—
2023	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	26	3	69	320	74	45	5	12%	2.7	23.1%	14.1%	9.1%	1.6%	6.49	3.85	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	87	365	76	37	3	54%	3.6	15.7%	11.8%	3.9%	1.1%	3.41	3.90	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	87	365	76	37	3	54%	3.6	15.7%	11.8%	3.9%	1.1%	3.41	3.90	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	13	87	365	76	37	3	54%	3.6	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	0.8%	3.41	3.08	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	90	377	76	35	5	100%	5.0	16.1%	10.3%	5.8%	1.4%	3.19	3.81	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	90	377	76	35	5	100%	5.0	16.1%	10.3%	5.8%	1.4%	3.19	3.81	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	90	377	76	35	5	100%	5.0	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	1.3%	3.19	3.30	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	2	40	208	31	35	4	11%	2.1	11.4%	19.9%	-8.4%	2.7%	7.20	6.14	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	2	40	208	31	35	4	11%	2.1	11.4%	19.9%	-8.4%	2.7%	7.20	6.14	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	2	40	208	31	35	4	11%	2.1	14.9%	16.8%	-1.9%	1.9%	7.20	5.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CHC	57	0	60	253	36	38	7	0%	1.1	14.1%	14.9%	-0.8%	2.7%	5.68	5.68	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	77	0	81	343	55	49	9	0%	1.1	16.1%	14.2%	2.0%	2.8%	5.47	5.43	-0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	76	0	80	338	56	47	10	0%	1.1	16.6%	13.8%	2.8%	2.8%	5.38	5.38	-0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	74	0	78	328	61	42	10	0%	1.1	18.7%	12.8%	5.9%	2.9%	5.21	5.13	-0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	71	0	74	313	58	41	10	0%	1.0	18.6%	12.9%	5.6%	3.1%	5.22	5.24	-0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	66	0	70	294	54	39	10	0%	1.1	18.2%	13.2%	5.0%	3.3%	5.34	5.42	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	34	0	36	152	25	22	4	0%	1.1	16.1%	14.2%	2.0%	2.8%	5.47	5.43	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	49	0	51	215	36	30	6	0%	1.0	16.6%	13.8%	2.8%	2.8%	5.38	5.38	-0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	56	0	59	249	47	32	7	0%	1.1	18.7%	12.8%	5.9%	2.9%	5.21	5.13	-0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	58	0	61	258	48	33	8	0%	1.1	18.6%	12.9%	5.6%	3.1%	5.22	5.24	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	57	0	60	253	46	34	8	0%	1.1	18.2%	13.2%	5.0%	3.3%	5.34	5.42	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		253	0	266	1121	200	149	34	0%	1.0	17.8%	13.3%	4.5%	3.0%	5.31	4.93	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	112	26	0%	1.1	17.8%	13.3%	4.5%	3.0%	5.31	4.93	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		98	37	298	1333	207	189	23	38%	3.0	15.5%	14.2%	1.4%	1.7%	4.89	4.54	-3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	25	200	894	139	127	16	38%	3.0	15.5%	14.2%	1.4%	1.7%	4.89	4.54	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erian Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.68	14.1%	14.9%	2.7%	—	5.32	17.1%	3.5%	239	-0.36	—	—	—
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	85
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	83
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	82
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	82
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	81
Lucas Harrell R 2010 · 4.65 FIP	25	SW	4.65	12.6%	13.4%	1.7%	.372	4.24	15.1%	5.1%	365	-0.41	2.81	541	80
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	79
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	78
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	78
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	78
Carlos Tavera R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	25	SW	5.12	18.3%	13.3%	3.4%	.299	5.43	21.9%	8.8%	29	+0.31	3.85	263	77
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	77
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	77
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	76
Kyle Miller R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	23	SW	4.68	12.1%	12.0%	2.0%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	164	76
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	76
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	76
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	75
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	75
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	74	17.1%	13.6%	1.14	5.37
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Doug Capilla ('76-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.5	73	20.1%*	13.5%*	0.98*	4.78*
Jim Winn ('83-'88, -1 WAR*)	1.5	77	15.1%*	11.0%*	1.09*	4.96*