Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 39 | 7 | 99 | 408 | 93 | 22 | 5 | 18% | 2.5 | 16.9% | 6.4% | 10.5% | 2.2% | 2.81 | 3.66 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 39 | 7 | 99 | 408 | 93 | 22 | 5 | 18% | 2.5 | 22.8% | 5.4% | 17.4% | 1.2% | 2.81 | 2.55 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 21 | 0 | 66 | 282 | 53 | 24 | 15 | 0% | 3.1 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.21 | 6.31 | -1.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | COL | 66 | 0 | 70 | 293 | 48 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.3% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.59 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 135 | 575 | 101 | 46 | 23 | — | — | 17.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 4.89 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.3% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.21 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 68 | 0 | 71 | 301 | 53 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 69 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 57 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | COL | 69 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 58 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | COL | 68 | 0 | 71 | 300 | 57 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | COL | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 46 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | COL | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 187 | 0 | 197 | 830 | 155 | 61 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 158 | 62 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 60 | 7 | 165 | 690 | 112 | 54 | 25 | 12% | 2.8 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 3.76 | 4.75 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 8 | 200 | 836 | 136 | 66 | 31 | 12% | 2.7 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 3.76 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Fisher Jameson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.1% | 215 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Jaycob Deese R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.36 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .309 | 4.90 | 12.8% | 3.1% | 117 | +0.54 | 3.27 | 185 | 88 |
| Josh DeGraaf R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.94 | 15.3% | 7.4% | 2.2% | .310 | 4.18 | 16.4% | 9.0% | 226 | +0.24 | 3.71 | 320 | 88 |
| Scott Burke R 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.84 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .316 | 5.01 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 61 | +0.17 | 4.84 | 119 | 88 |
| Trevor Foss R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.43 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | .308 | 3.47 | 17.3% | 13.8% | 42 | -0.96 | 3.47 | 120 | 88 |
| Beau Blanchard R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.35 | 16.2% | 6.7% | 3.2% | .340 | 6.47 | 16.3% | 5.5% | 61 | +2.12 | 4.35 | 111 | 87 |
| Jose Regalado R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.34 | 15.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% | .257 | 4.03 | 15.0% | 6.3% | 52 | -0.31 | 4.03 | 140 | 87 |
| Tai Tiedemann R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .305 | 5.99 | 9.8% | -0.2% | 118 | +2.25 | 3.74 | 190 | 87 |
| Eric Karch R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 16.0% | 6.2% | 2.2% | .324 | 5.07 | 20.3% | 16.1% | 35 | +1.33 | 3.74 | 104 | 86 |
| Kyle Smith R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.75 | 14.7% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .326 | 3.33 | 15.2% | 9.5% | 76 | -1.42 | 3.33 | 159 | 86 |
| Conor Steinbaugh R 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.77 | 16.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 6.87 | 14.3% | 0.8% | 39 | +2.10 | 4.77 | 107 | 85 |
| Jack Jasiak R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.97 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 3.8% | .332 | 3.51 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 112 | -1.46 | 3.25 | 248 | 85 |
| David Rodriguez R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.83 | 15.2% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .223 | 3.66 | 22.9% | 14.7% | 34 | -0.17 | 3.66 | 161 | 84 |
| Keegan Yuhl R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.50 | 16.6% | 7.0% | 1.7% | .289 | 3.89 | 15.4% | 8.7% | 144 | +0.39 | 3.50 | 242 | 84 |
| Devin Burke R 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.61 | 11.7% | 7.0% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.97 | 13.7% | 8.8% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.97 | 149 | 84 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 84 |
| Tyler Wehrle R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 1.6% | .300 | 5.47 | 15.1% | 3.4% | 60 | +1.47 | 4.00 | 141 | 83 |
| Clark Beeker R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 83 |
| Rafael Pineda R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.14 | 14.6% | 5.2% | 2.9% | .298 | 5.49 | 6.5% | -3.4% | 20 | +1.35 | 4.14 | 101 | 83 |
| Robbie Welhaf R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 14.0% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .309 | 3.26 | 18.1% | 15.0% | 90 | -0.80 | 3.26 | 121 | 83 |
| Blake Bass R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.07 | 11.4% | 6.4% | 2.0% | .321 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 6.6% | 108 | -0.66 | 3.18 | 223 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 71 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 1.10 | 4.46 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |