Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Salem Red Sox | 31 | 1 | 72 | 315 | 72 | 15 | 8 | 3% | 2.3 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 11.3% | 4.6% | 5.72 | 4.91 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Salem Red Sox | 31 | 1 | 72 | 315 | 72 | 15 | 8 | 3% | 2.3 | 22.9% | 4.8% | 18.1% | 2.5% | 5.72 | 3.17 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 69 | 307 | 68 | 16 | 12 | 0% | 2.3 | 17.3% | 5.8% | 11.5% | 5.1% | 5.77 | 5.15 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 69 | 307 | 68 | 16 | 12 | 0% | 2.3 | 22.1% | 5.2% | 16.9% | 3.9% | 5.77 | 4.09 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 30 | 5 | 73 | 328 | 68 | 15 | 19 | 17% | 2.4 | 16.0% | 5.3% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 5.08 | 7.03 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 30 | 5 | 73 | 328 | 68 | 15 | 19 | 17% | 2.4 | 20.7% | 4.6% | 16.2% | 5.8% | 5.08 | 5.25 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 48 | 0 | 50 | 213 | 48 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 46 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 42 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 40 | 0 | 42 | 178 | 39 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 62 | 0 | 65 | 273 | 60 | 26 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.68 | 4.39 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 80 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.68 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 91 | 6 | 214 | 950 | 159 | 53 | 58 | 7% | 2.3 | 16.7% | 5.5% | 11.2% | 6.1% | 5.52 | 5.72 | -0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 6 | 200 | 889 | 148 | 49 | 54 | 7% | 2.3 | 16.7% | 5.5% | 11.2% | 6.1% | 5.52 | 5.72 | -0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jordan DiValerio (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 3.2% | — | 4.73 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 135 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 85 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 82 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 472 | 81 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 81 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .359 | 5.26 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 108 | 80 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 79 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 79 |
| Dayan Díaz R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.43 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .358 | 4.01 | 29.4% | 19.3% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.17 | 205 | 78 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 77 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 77 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 77 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 4.4% | .350 | 5.85 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 137 | +1.16 | 4.26 | 258 | 77 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 523 | 77 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 3.81 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.03 | 3.57 | 224 | 77 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 76 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 76 |
| Anthony Bass R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.18 | 2.93 | 432 | 76 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.18 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .307 | 6.22 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.04 | 2.75 | 299 | 76 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 76 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 46 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 4.60 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |