Canyon Brown

C Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AA HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	A+KC	259	.225/.315/.297	2	8	41	—	.193/.267/.254
2026	22	AANorthwest Ark…	317	.194/.259/.295	6	12	28	—	.173/.224/.259
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBKC	4	.194/.247/.276	0	0	49	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	24	MLBKC	87	.199/.253/.291	1	2	55	-0.1
2029PROJ45% MLB	25	MLBKC	148	.202/.258/.300	2	3	59	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.2M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Speed64

K%34

Z-Con%33

Whiff%31

ISO22

BB%15

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsClaudio Finol (age 23) · Fabian Pertuz (age 23) · J.C. Millan (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .247 / .276

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%5

BABIP265

ISO93

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	259	222	50	10	0	2	23	60	6	8	3	225	315	297	612	72	291	23	9	277	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	317	288	56	9	1	6	21	87	4	12	3	194	259	295	554	101	253	27	7	251	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	259	228	44	8	0	2	17	76	6	8	3	193	267	254	521	61	255	29	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	317	294	51	8	1	5	15	106	4	12	3	173	224	259	482	85	238	33	5	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	259	228	44	8	0	2	17	76	6	8	3	193	267	254	521	61	271	29	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	259	222	50	10	0	2	23	60	6	8	3	225	315	297	612	72	291	23	9	277	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	317	294	51	8	1	5	15	106	4	12	3	173	224	259	482	85	247	33	5	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	317	288	56	9	1	6	21	87	4	12	3	194	259	295	554	101	253	27	7	251	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	259	234	44	8	0	2	17	76	6	8	3	188	267	248	515	60	255	29	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	317	295	51	8	1	5	15	106	4	12	3	173	224	258	481	85	238	33	5	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	259	234	44	8	0	2	17	76	6	8	3	188	267	248	515	60	255	29	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	317	295	51	8	1	5	15	106	4	12	3	173	224	258	481	85	238	33	5	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	KC	2%	427	396	78	15	2	5	23	123	5	9	2	195	248	280	529	85	266	29	5	240	49	-26	+1	+0	+8	+9	-0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	KC	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	194	247	276	523	82	265	25	0	238	49	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	31%	280	260	52	10	1	4	15	79	3	6	2	201	255	296	551	95	269	28	5	249	55	-15	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	45%	333	307	63	12	1	6	19	93	4	7	2	204	260	306	566	102	270	28	6	256	59	-16	+1	+0	+6	+7	-0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	51%	364	335	69	13	1	7	22	100	4	7	2	206	263	313	576	106	271	27	6	260	62	-16	+1	+0	+7	+8	-0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	53%	374	344	70	13	1	7	23	103	4	7	2	207	265	315	580	108	271	28	6	262	63	-16	+1	+0	+7	+8	-0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	KC	53%	376	346	71	13	1	7	23	103	4	6	2	207	266	315	581	107	271	27	6	262	63	-16	+0	-1	+7	+8	-0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	KC	53%	368	338	69	13	1	6	23	102	4	6	2	205	263	309	572	104	270	28	6	258	61	-17	+0	-1	+7	+8	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	31%	87	81	15	3	0	1	5	25	1	2	0	199	253	291	544	92	267	29	6	246	55	-5	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	45%	148	136	27	5	1	2	9	41	2	3	1	202	258	300	558	99	268	28	6	252	59	-7	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	51%	185	170	35	7	1	3	11	51	2	4	1	204	261	306	568	102	269	28	6	256	62	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	53%	196	180	37	7	1	3	12	54	2	4	1	205	263	308	571	103	269	28	6	258	63	-9	+0	+0	+4	+4	-0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	KC	53%	201	185	37	7	1	3	12	55	2	3	1	205	264	308	572	103	270	27	6	258	63	-9	+0	-0	+4	+4	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	KC	53%	193	177	36	7	1	3	12	53	2	3	1	203	261	302	563	100	268	27	6	255	61	-9	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1010	929	187	36	5	15	61	279	11	19	5	201	259	299	558	98	269	28	6	255	55	-47	+2	-1	+18	+22	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	120	23	3	10	39	180	7	12	3	201	258	299	557	99	268	28	6	255	55	-30	+1	-1	+12	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2881	2646	527	97	8	47	168	822	36	63	19	199	256	295	552	96	267	29	6	249	55	-110	+3	-2	+41	+50	-1.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	120	22	2	11	38	185	8	14	4	201	258	300	558	99	268	28	6	249	55	-31	+1	-1	+12	+14	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 317 PAwOBA .246 → .209 (−37)K% 27.4% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.44%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	33.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.62%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.027	4.76%
HBP% /PA	1.26%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	1.13%
Singles /BIP	19.90%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.018	×1.027	19.14%
Doubles /BIP	4.48%	÷1.000	×0.840	×1.018	×1.027	3.93%
Triples /BIP	0.50%	÷1.000	×0.940	×1.018	×1.027	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	2.99%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	2.45%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .246 → .209; ISO .101 → .082; BABIP .253 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 259 PAwOBA .276 → .229 (−47)K% 23.2% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.17%	÷1.007	×1.270	—	—	29.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.88%	÷0.981	×0.710	—	×1.012	6.50%
HBP% /PA	2.32%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	1.85%
Singles /BIP	23.46%	÷1.027	×0.920	×0.999	×1.012	21.23%
Doubles /BIP	6.17%	÷1.055	×0.810	×0.999	×1.012	4.79%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.012	×0.850	×0.999	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.23%	÷0.983	×0.800	—	×1.012	1.02%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 102, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .276 → .229; ISO .072 → .057; BABIP .291 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#3Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#4Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.5	1,015	18	18	206	261	312	+18	+12	0.0	0.1
/162	664	12	12	+11.9	+7.8	0.0	pk7: 0
#5Mike Ryan'64-'74 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,098 PA	3.2	2,098	28	4	196*	257*	311*	+38	+0	-1.9	-0.9
/162	664	9	1	+11.9	+0.0	-0.6	pk7: 0
#6Matt Walbeck'93-'03 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,280 PA	3.4	2,280	28	13	222*	268*	305*	+40	-0	-3.5	-1.5
/162	664	8	4	+11.5	-0.0	-1.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Canyon Brown (OGILVIE)	23	35	25	50	35	194/246/278	84	266	3	4	29%	5%	49	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→30	50→45	40	185/239/261	76	255	4	8	28%	6%	42	-2.9	210/271/302	92	296	8	10	30%	7%	63	-1.4	202/270/282	80	285	9	12	31%	7%	57	-0.4
✕Fabian Pertuz 2024 · AA	23	35→36	40	51→55	36	179/227/266	87	258	7	13	33%	5%	38	-3.2	186/239/281	95	297	9	11	38%	6%	46	-2.6	156/208/244	89	265	10	7	43%	5%	24	-2.2
✕J.C. Millan 2019 · AA	23	43	40	48→30	43	210/260/303	93	264	8	8	23%	6%	59	-1.7	226/272/327	101	277	9	6	21%	6%	69	-0.9	231/271/321	91	275	9	2	19%	5%	63	-0.7
✕Jon Murphy 2013 · A	23	37	38→30	47→50	39	183/234/259	76	262	5	13	31%	5%	39	-3.1	196/249/259	63	303	3	10	34%	6%	45	-2.7	190/244/242	52	297	3	10	35%	6%	35	-1.8
✕Alfredo González 2015 · A	23	42	38→40	52→45	43	203/263/284	81	270	6	9	26%	6%	55	-1.9	233/294/296	63	311	4	6	24%	7%	70	-0.9	228/290/283	56	297	4	5	23%	7%	63	-0.7
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	36	36→40	52→50	41	177/235/240	63	250	4	15	30%	6%	35	-3.4	215/285/296	81	280	8	14	24%	8%	67	-1.1	210/285/284	74	270	8	16	24%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Gionti Turner 2024 · AA	23	40	36→30	49→55	38	190/253/253	62	277	5	15	32%	6%	45	-2.7	193/252/276	83	308	7	15	37%	6%	50	-2.3	127/187/191	64	225	6	21	44%	5%	4	-1.3
✕Nic Kent 2023 · A	23	38→45	36→40	48→50	36	182/231/242	60	272	3	14	33%	5%	34	-3.5	212/266/295	83	278	7	10	25%	6%	59	-1.6	212/272/301	89	289	8	9	28%	6%	60	-1.0
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2006 · AA	23	38	37→40	45→40	41	181/243/252	71	264	4	7	31%	7%	41	-3.0	190/242/269	79	270	5	4	30%	5%	45	-2.7	208/273/289	82	286	7	0	28%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Ethan Murray 2023 · AA	23	38→48	41→40	51→50	43	187/258/284	97	272	8	13	32%	8%	55	-2.0	202/275/294	92	293	7	12	31%	8%	63	-1.4	199/276/286	87	286	6	13	30%	8%	59	-1.0
✕Ryan Dent 2012 · AA	23	40→44	39→40	45→50	39	194/248/283	89	280	7	12	32%	6%	50	-2.3	210/263/283	73	289	6	12	27%	6%	55	-1.9	208/259/293	85	288	6	12	28%	5%	54	-1.1
✕Justin Twine 2019 · AA	23	44→33	40	49→50	33	211/249/302	92	307	7	10	33%	3%	54	-2.0	211/250/296	85	313	6	12	33%	4%	53	-2.1	196/234/271	75	308	4	14	36%	3%	39	-1.7
✕Jack Winkler 2022 · A	23	40→41	38→40	48→55	40	193/248/273	79	268	4	10	28%	6%	47	-2.5	205/268/294	89	269	7	14	25%	6%	60	-1.6	190/257/276	86	252	7	18	26%	6%	49	-1.7
✕Bryan Johns 2012 · A	23	40	36→30	47→45	36	190/237/256	66	288	4	7	34%	5%	39	-3.1	195/269/258	63	278	3	6	28%	8%	53	-2.1	180/263/233	53	255	2	5	27%	8%	44	-1.0
✕Omar Hernandez 2024 · AA	22	38	37→30	50→55	42	186/243/252	66	254	5	17	28%	6%	40	-3.0	203/247/266	63	270	5	18	25%	5%	45	-2.7	208/245/263	55	275	4	21	25%	4%	40	-1.5
✕Dwayne Bailey 2011 · AAA	24	41	35→30	53→50	40	193/248/248	54	285	2	14	32%	6%	41	-3.0	218/278/290	72	315	3	12	29%	7%	63	-1.4	226/291/287	61	329	2	11	29%	7%	63	-0.9
✕Erlin Cerda 2017 · A	23	42	35→40	51→55	43	197/259/263	67	264	2	11	25%	6%	50	-2.3	194/237/265	71	300	3	8	34%	4%	41	-3.0	162/195/205	44	254	0	8	35%	3%	7	-1.3
✕Yoel Romero 2021 · A	23	43	38→40	46→50	45	206/268/286	80	275	6	9	26%	7%	58	-1.7	219/269/312	93	327	7	4	33%	6%	64	-1.3	218/265/307	89	325	7	0	34%	5%	59	-0.7
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	178/253/255	77	262	8	14	33%	8%	47	-2.6	205/278/293	88	286	6	12	28%	9%	64	-1.3	205/285/293	88	279	5	13	26%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Jayson Hernandez 2013 · AA	24	39	39→30	49→30	37	192/235/277	84	281	6	8	33%	5%	43	-2.8	212/258/285	73	281	5	5	25%	4%	53	-2.1	222/266/253	31	284	2	0	21%	3%	46	-1.0

Canyon Brown

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps