Canyon Brown — OGILVIE

Canyon BrownC Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 22 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AA HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION196 act + 130 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†37

AVG/OBP/SLG.189 / .239 / .247

PA130

HR1

K%30

BB%5

BABIP266

ISO58

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.1M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	259	228	41	7	0	2	17	80	6	8	3	180	255	237	492	57	258	31	7	219	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	259	222	50	10	0	2	23	60	6	8	3	225	315	297	612	72	291	23	9	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	AA	KC	—	196	185	34	5	0	3	7	67	1	7	2	184	218	259	477	76	265	34	4	212	20	-18	+1	+0	+4	+6	-0.8
YTD	22	AA	KC	—	196	182	38	6	0	4	10	52	1	7	2	209	254	308	562	99	266	27	5	250	50	-11	+1	+0	+4	+6	-0.1
ROS	22	AA	KC	2%	130	121	23	4	0	1	7	39	1	3	1	189	239	247	486	58	269	30	5	234	37	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.3
ROS	22	MLB	KC	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						266	33	0	223	29	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	AA	KC	—	199	188	34	5	0	3	7	68	1	7	2	181	214	255	470	74	261	34	4	212	21	-18	+1	+0	+4	+6	-0.8
TOT	22	AA	KC	—	326	306	57	9	0	4	14	106	2	10	3	186	226	254	481	68	265	32	4	221	27	-27	+1	+0	+6	+9	-1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	KC	35%	368	341	70	13	1	6	20	105	4	8	2	205	258	302	560	97	273	29	5	250	50	-21	+1	+0	+7	+10	-0.3
2028	24	MLB	KC	47%	429	397	82	15	1	8	25	120	4	9	3	207	261	310	570	103	275	28	6	259	57	-21	+1	+0	+8	+12	-0.1
2029	25	MLB	KC	52%	458	423	89	16	2	9	27	126	5	9	3	210	266	322	587	111	276	28	6	265	61	-20	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.1
2030	26	MLB	KC	54%	476	439	94	17	2	10	29	130	5	9	3	214	271	330	601	116	277	27	6	267	63	-20	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.2
2031	27	MLB	KC	54%	480	442	94	17	2	10	30	132	5	9	3	213	270	328	598	115	276	28	6	267	63	-20	+1	+0	+9	+14	0.3
2032	28	MLB	KC	58%	477	439	92	17	1	9	30	131	5	9	3	210	268	314	582	105	276	27	6	266	62	-21	+1	-1	+9	+14	0.1
2027	23	MLB	KC	35%	129	120	23	4	0	2	7	37	1	3	1	192	242	275	517	83	270	29	5	239	41	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
2028	24	MLB	KC	47%	200	184	38	7	1	3	12	56	2	4	1	207	263	304	567	98	272	28	6	248	48	-12	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.2
2029	25	MLB	KC	52%	237	219	45	8	1	4	14	65	2	5	1	205	260	306	566	100	273	27	6	254	52	-13	+1	+0	+4	+7	-0.1
2030	26	MLB	KC	54%	258	237	50	9	1	5	16	71	3	5	1	211	270	321	590	110	273	28	6	256	54	-13	+1	+0	+5	+7	-0.1
2031	27	MLB	KC	54%	261	240	50	9	1	5	16	72	3	5	1	208	266	317	583	108	273	28	6	256	54	-14	+1	+0	+5	+7	-0.1
2032	28	MLB	KC	58%	279	256	53	10	1	5	18	77	3	5	2	207	267	312	580	105	272	28	6	255	53	-15	+0	-0	+5	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1367	1259	259	47	5	24	83	379	14	27	7	206	263	308	571	102	273	28	6	253	51	-75	+3	-0	+24	+39	-1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	122	22	2	11	39	180	7	13	3	204	260	302	563	98	270	28	6	253	51	-36	+1	-0	+12	+18	-0.5
Career	—			—	3077	2830	585	106	9	55	185	863	35	64	21	207	264	309	573	102	275	28	6	258	56	-154	+4	-1	+55	+87	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	124	22	2	12	39	182	7	14	4	207	264	311	575	104	275	28	6	258	56	-33	+1	-0	+12	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	259	222	50	10	0	2	23	60	6	8	3	225	315	297	612	72	291	23	9	277	70	-9	+0	—	—	+7	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,370	26	27	211	265	320	+24	+12	0.4	0.5
	/162	664	13	13	211	265	320	+11.9	+5.8	0.2	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Canyon Brown (OGILVIE)	22	35	25	50	35	186/226/254	68	265	4	10	32%	4%	27	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	39→40	46→45	40	193/251/277	85	270	5	6	30%	6%	43	-2.2	194/250/277	83	275	7	9	30%	6%	43	-2.2	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Narbe Cruz 2023 · A	22	41	38→40	44→45	40	197/250/273	76	268	5	7	28%	5%	42	-2.3	215/268/305	90	308	8	6	31%	5%	58	-1.2	215/271/305	90	313	9	6	32%	5%	54	-0.7
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	39	38→30	48→45	42	188/251/269	81	260	6	7	29%	6%	42	-2.3	199/274/280	81	291	6	6	31%	8%	55	-1.4	183/255/250	66	251	6	11	27%	8%	37	-0.7
✕Roberto Alvarez 2021 · A	22	44→42	36→30	49→40	38	212/247/278	66	277	4	5	25%	4%	40	-2.4	228/285/296	68	302	4	5	24%	6%	62	-0.9	240/305/296	56	311	1	2	21%	7%	68	-0.1
✕Gionti Turner 2023 · A	22	39	37→30	47→55	41	189/255/258	69	263	5	13	29%	6%	40	-2.4	187/246/254	67	298	5	15	37%	5%	36	-2.7	164/223/213	48	276	4	19	39%	5%	12	-1.5
✕Anyesber Sivira 2022 · A	22	43	38→30	49→55	40	205/273/283	78	279	6	9	27%	5%	55	-1.4	223/286/336	113	327	11	7	33%	6%	74	-0.1	220/287/330	110	327	13	3	34%	6%	70	-0.1
✕Wilkin Grullon 2022 · A	22	40	37→30	46→45	41	189/263/263	74	280	5	4	32%	7%	46	-2.0	197/259/295	98	320	8	5	38%	7%	51	-1.7	156/214/260	104	255	11	0	42%	6%	20	-0.7
✕Luis De La Cruz 2011 · A	22	39	40	47→30	38	193/229/294	101	252	6	6	26%	4%	37	-2.6	234/265/316	82	286	5	6	19%	4%	58	-1.2	263/286/335	71	310	4	4	16%	3%	67	-0.2
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	42	41→40	46→45	39	204/256/303	99	288	9	8	31%	6%	52	-1.6	199/262/282	83	293	7	9	32%	7%	50	-1.8	183/253/253	70	269	6	8	32%	7%	37	-1.1
✕Frank Veliz 2022 · A	22	39	38→30	47→55	37	188/240/264	76	290	5	7	36%	6%	35	-2.8	192/252/277	85	327	6	6	40%	7%	43	-2.2	129/202/202	72	244	6	0	46%	7%	1	-0.9
✕Felix Familia 2021 · A	22	41	35→30	48→45	45	195/266/257	62	273	3	7	28%	7%	45	-2.1	203/255/264	61	295	4	4	30%	5%	40	-2.4	191/241/233	42	275	3	1	30%	5%	24	-1.1
✕Jon Murphy 2013 · A	23	38	38→30	47→50	39	185/237/262	77	264	5	13	31%	6%	33	-2.9	197/249/259	62	309	3	10	35%	6%	37	-2.6	191/245/241	50	305	2	10	36%	6%	27	-1.8
✕Raul Siri 2018 · A	23	39	38→40	51→50	42	192/251/271	80	265	6	11	29%	7%	42	-2.3	199/264/283	84	349	5	9	41%	7%	51	-1.7	149/237/238	89	307	4	14	47%	8%	28	-0.6
✕Jordan Sprinkle 2023 · A	22	43	38→30	53→65	39	207/262/284	76	294	6	16	30%	6%	50	-1.8	189/252/255	66	280	5	26	32%	7%	38	-2.6	193/265/244	51	275	3	50	28%	8%	39	-1.4
✕Leobaldo Piña 2016 · A	22	45→43	37→40	51→45	42	211/261/284	73	283	3	9	26%	6%	48	-1.9	223/262/312	89	294	8	5	26%	5%	56	-1.3	226/262/314	88	295	8	4	26%	4%	53	-1.0
✕Alfredo González 2015 · A	23	42	38→40	52→45	43	203/264/285	81	271	6	9	26%	6%	50	-1.7	230/291/295	65	314	4	6	26%	7%	64	-0.8	225/288/284	59	300	4	5	25%	7%	57	-0.6
✕J.C. Millan 2018 · A	22	40	37→45	45→30	36	194/235/268	74	277	4	8	31%	4%	33	-2.9	221/267/321	100	274	9	6	22%	6%	61	-1.0	227/273/327	101	266	11	4	19%	6%	61	-0.4
✕Nic Kent 2022 · A	22	43→41	36→40	47→50	41	202/261/271	69	278	3	9	27%	6%	46	-2.0	189/236/263	74	264	6	11	29%	5%	33	-2.9	193/253/275	82	267	8	10	29%	6%	41	-1.3
✕Jamaal Hawkins 2011 · A	22	38	36→30	49→50	41	183/246/248	65	273	3	9	32%	7%	33	-2.9	196/260/265	69	313	3	10	35%	6%	44	-2.1	185/252/246	60	307	1	12	37%	6%	33	-1.6