Canyon Brown — OGILVIE

Canyon BrownC Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 22 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AA HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION317 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†42

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .111 / .111

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%6

BABIP258

ISO81

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$8M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	259	222	50	10	0	2	23	60	6	8	3	225	315	297	612	72	291	23	9	277	74	-8	+0	—	—	+6	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	259	228	43	8	0	2	17	81	6	8	3	189	263	250	513	61	251	31	7	222	36	-20	+0	—	—	+6	-1.4
2025	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	259	228	43	8	0	2	17	81	6	8	3	189	263	250	513	61	273	31	7	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	259	222	50	10	0	2	23	60	6	8	3	225	315	297	612	72	291	23	9	277	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	259	234	43	8	0	2	17	81	6	8	3	184	263	244	507	60	251	31	7	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	259	234	43	8	0	2	17	81	6	8	3	184	263	244	507	60	251	31	7	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	KC	—	317	294	50	8	1	4	15	106	4	12	3	170	220	245	465	75	246	33	5	206	26	-28	+1	+0	+6	+7	-1.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA RAW	KC	—	317	288	56	9	1	6	21	87	4	12	3	194	259	295	554	101	253	27	7	251	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	AA MLE	KC	2%	9	9	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	111	111	111	222		260	33	0	231	42	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	AA MLE	KC	—	326	303	51	8	1	4	15	109	4	12	3	168	217	241	458	73	244	33	5	207	26	-29	+1	+0	+6	+7	-1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	KC	35%	372	343	67	12	1	6	21	107	5	8	2	195	252	289	541	93	264	29	6	247	53	-21	+1	+0	+7	+8	-0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	47%	432	399	81	15	2	8	25	121	5	9	2	203	259	311	570	108	267	28	6	257	60	-20	+1	+0	+8	+9	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	52%	460	423	87	16	2	9	28	127	6	9	2	206	265	317	582	111	268	28	6	263	64	-20	+1	+0	+8	+10	-0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	54%	477	438	91	17	2	10	30	131	6	9	3	208	268	324	592	116	269	27	6	265	66	-19	+1	+0	+9	+10	0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	54%	480	440	92	17	2	10	31	132	6	9	2	209	270	325	595	116	269	28	6	265	66	-20	+1	+0	+9	+10	0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	KC	54%	478	438	90	16	2	10	31	132	6	9	2	205	267	320	587	114	268	28	6	264	65	-20	+1	-1	+9	+10	-0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	KC	58%	469	429	88	16	2	9	31	130	6	8	2	205	268	315	583	110	267	28	7	263	64	-20	+1	-1	+8	+10	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	KC	35%	131	121	24	4	1	2	7	38	2	3	1	198	254	298	551	99	261	29	5	234	53	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	47%	201	185	37	7	1	3	12	56	2	4	1	200	256	297	554	97	264	28	6	244	60	-10	+0	+0	+4	+4	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	52%	238	218	44	8	1	4	15	66	3	5	1	202	263	303	565	101	265	28	6	249	64	-10	+1	+0	+4	+5	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	54%	259	238	49	9	1	5	16	71	3	5	1	206	265	315	580	109	266	27	6	251	66	-11	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	54%	261	239	49	9	1	5	17	72	3	5	1	205	266	314	580	109	265	28	7	252	66	-11	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	KC	54%	259	237	48	9	1	5	17	71	3	5	1	203	265	312	577	110	265	27	7	251	65	-11	+1	-0	+5	+6	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	KC	58%	270	247	50	9	1	5	18	75	3	5	1	202	265	308	573	105	264	28	7	249	64	-12	+1	-1	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1619	1485	301	55	7	29	102	449	19	32	7	203	263	308	571	105	268	28	6	248	61	-71	+4	-1	+29	+35	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	121	22	3	12	41	180	8	13	3	203	264	310	574	107	268	28	6	248	61	-28	+1	-0	+12	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3436	3147	640	117	13	64	214	964	46	69	18	203	264	310	574	106	269	28	6	258	61	-140	+6	-2	+57	+69	-1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	120	22	2	12	40	182	9	13	3	202	262	306	568	104	267	28	6	258	61	-29	+1	-0	+12	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.4	1,626	32	32	206	263	317	+29	+16	0.7	0.8
/162	664	13	13	+11.9	+6.5	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Canyon Brown (OGILVIE)	22	35	25	50	35	186/239/263	77	260	3	9	30%	5%	42	-1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	46→45	40	194/253/278	85	271	5	6	29%	6%	51	-2.3	196/253/280	84	275	6	9	29%	6%	51	-2.2	192/260/271	78	271	9	12	31%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Luis De La Cruz 2011 · A	22	39	40→30	47→30	38	193/228/291	98	250	6	6	26%	4%	44	-2.8	234/265/314	80	285	4	6	19%	4%	62	-1.4	265/287/332	67	311	3	4	16%	3%	71	-0.3
✕Alfredo González 2015 · A	23	42	38→30	52→45	43	203/264/285	81	271	6	9	26%	6%	56	-1.9	233/294/295	62	311	4	6	24%	7%	70	-0.9	228/291/282	54	298	4	5	23%	7%	63	-0.7
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Roberto Alvarez 2021 · A	22	44→42	37→30	49→40	39	213/248/282	69	272	4	5	23%	4%	49	-2.4	228/284/297	69	300	4	5	24%	6%	66	-1.1	240/304/298	58	310	1	2	21%	6%	72	-0.2
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	41	41→40	46→45	39	201/255/297	96	286	8	8	32%	6%	55	-1.9	198/263/285	87	291	7	9	32%	7%	57	-1.8	182/254/257	75	267	7	8	32%	8%	46	-1.1
✕J.C. Millan 2018 · A	22	40	37→40	45→30	36	194/235/270	76	278	4	8	31%	4%	41	-3.0	218/265/312	94	270	8	6	22%	6%	63	-1.4	223/270/312	90	261	9	4	18%	6%	61	-0.6
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	39	38→30	48→45	42	188/251/270	82	260	6	7	29%	6%	49	-2.4	199/275/282	83	287	6	6	30%	8%	61	-1.5	182/254/249	67	248	6	11	27%	8%	43	-0.7
✕Nic Kent 2022 · A	22	43→42	36→40	47→50	41	203/263/272	69	280	3	9	27%	6%	53	-2.1	194/242/269	75	268	6	11	29%	5%	45	-2.7	200/260/285	86	274	8	9	29%	6%	52	-1.3
✕Anyesber Sivira 2022 · A	22	43	38→30	49→55	40	204/272/284	79	277	6	9	27%	5%	60	-1.6	226/290/342	116	324	12	7	32%	6%	80	-0.2	226/294/340	114	325	14	3	33%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Felix Familia 2021 · A	22	41	35→30	48→45	45	195/266/257	62	273	3	7	28%	7%	51	-2.2	206/258/268	62	295	4	4	30%	6%	50	-2.3	197/248/240	43	279	3	1	29%	5%	36	-1.0
✕José Alvarez 2022 · A	22	46	36→40	51→50	39	213/262/283	69	308	3	9	30%	6%	55	-2.0	229/278/293	64	327	3	10	29%	6%	62	-1.4	236/285/285	49	331	2	10	27%	6%	59	-0.8
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/231/293	99	262	8	10	29%	4%	45	-2.7	197/236/286	89	278	6	9	30%	5%	45	-2.7	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Gionti Turner 2023 · A	22	39	37→30	47→55	41	188/255/257	68	262	5	13	29%	6%	47	-2.5	186/247/253	67	291	5	15	36%	5%	43	-2.8	164/224/212	48	268	4	19	38%	5%	23	-1.5
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	42	40→45	49→40	43	204/260/298	94	268	7	6	26%	6%	58	-1.7	192/251/306	114	277	11	4	33%	6%	57	-1.8	208/275/351	144	265	17	1	28%	7%	74	-0.2
✕Wilkin Grullon 2022 · A	22	40	37→30	46→45	41	189/264/263	74	280	5	4	32%	7%	52	-2.2	196/257/296	100	321	9	5	39%	7%	57	-1.8	151/209/258	107	249	12	0	42%	6%	27	-0.7
✕Frank Veliz 2022 · A	22	39	37→30	47→55	38	186/240/260	74	289	5	7	36%	6%	42	-2.9	193/253/278	85	327	6	6	40%	7%	51	-2.3	134/206/210	76	246	7	0	45%	7%	16	-0.8
✕Ronaldo Urdaneta 2021 · A	22	45	39→40	52→60	40	212/268/302	90	310	6	12	32%	7%	61	-1.5	186/266/262	76	308	6	22	38%	9%	53	-2.1	145/240/204	59	242	5	33	39%	9%	30	-1.1
✕Raul Siri 2018 · A	23	39	38→40	51→50	42	192/251/271	80	265	6	11	29%	7%	49	-2.4	199/265/283	84	347	5	9	41%	7%	57	-1.8	146/235/232	85	299	4	14	47%	8%	34	-0.6
✕Luke Williams 2019 · A	22	40→44	38→45	50→65	41	197/248/266	70	256	6	15	25%	5%	46	-2.6	206/264/300	94	275	7	19	26%	7%	60	-1.6	222/284/339	116	307	11	42	29%	7%	74	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps