Elijah Green
CF Wilmington Blue Rocks| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | AWSH | 468 | .208/.294/.355 | 13 | 39 | 15 | — | .135/.202/.223 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+/A/ROKWSH | 331 | .224/.320/.372 | 9 | 18 | 18 | — | .135/.202/.213 |
| 2026 | 22 | AA/A+WSH | 496 | .214/.318/.371 | 14 | 33 | 28 | — | .147/.218/.260 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBWSH | 1 | .144/.214/.240 | 0 | 0 | 28 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBWSH | 138 | .151/.222/.256 | 3 | 5 | 35 | -0.7 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 52 | 43 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 302 | 412 | 535 | 947 | 233 | 524 | 40 | 12 | 409 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 332 | 281 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 139 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 210 | 324 | 306 | 630 | 96 | 393 | 42 | 14 | 293 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 29 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 318 | 483 | 591 | 1.074 | 273 | 600 | 38 | 24 | 465 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 468 | 414 | 86 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 206 | 5 | 39 | 3 | 208 | 294 | 355 | 649 | 147 | 371 | 44 | 10 | 293 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 140 | 123 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 64 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 171 | 271 | 260 | 532 | 89 | 321 | 46 | 11 | 251 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 113 | 103 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 233 | 301 | 359 | 660 | 126 | 365 | 35 | 8 | 297 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 78 | 64 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 312 | 436 | 609 | 1.045 | 297 | 429 | 31 | 18 | 452 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 119 | 100 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 46 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 170 | 291 | 310 | 601 | 140 | 278 | 39 | 14 | 274 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 377 | 326 | 74 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 47 | 168 | 1 | 32 | 5 | 227 | 326 | 390 | 716 | 163 | 416 | 45 | 12 | 321 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 52 | 45 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 156 | 255 | 267 | 522 | 111 | 404 | 58 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 332 | 298 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 193 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 141 | 224 | 205 | 429 | 64 | 357 | 58 | 9 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 29 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 240 | 345 | 480 | 825 | 240 | 465 | 55 | 14 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 468 | 430 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 270 | 5 | 39 | 3 | 135 | 202 | 223 | 425 | 88 | 318 | 58 | 7 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 140 | 129 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 87 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 101 | 171 | 155 | 326 | 54 | 292 | 62 | 7 | 157 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 113 | 106 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 55 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 151 | 204 | 236 | 439 | 85 | 307 | 49 | 5 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 78 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 171 | 256 | 286 | 542 | 114 | 317 | 45 | 10 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 119 | 105 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 56 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 231 | 267 | 497 | 124 | 257 | 47 | 10 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 377 | 345 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 220 | 1 | 32 | 5 | 148 | 214 | 258 | 472 | 110 | 340 | 58 | 7 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 52 | 45 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 156 | 255 | 267 | 522 | 111 | 400 | 58 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Nationals | — | 52 | 43 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 302 | 412 | 535 | 947 | 233 | 524 | 40 | 12 | 409 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 361 | 323 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 209 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 139 | 226 | 201 | 427 | 62 | 372 | 58 | 9 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 361 | 303 | 66 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 52 | 150 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 218 | 337 | 327 | 664 | 109 | 407 | 42 | 14 | 307 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 468 | 430 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 270 | 5 | 39 | 3 | 135 | 202 | 223 | 425 | 88 | 325 | 58 | 7 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 468 | 414 | 86 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 206 | 5 | 39 | 3 | 208 | 294 | 355 | 649 | 147 | 371 | 44 | 10 | 293 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 331 | 305 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 177 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 138 | 205 | 216 | 422 | 79 | 301 | 53 | 7 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 331 | 290 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 127 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 224 | 320 | 372 | 693 | 148 | 364 | 38 | 12 | 314 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 449 | 65 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 276 | 1 | 33 | 5 | 145 | 218 | 252 | 470 | 107 | 327 | 56 | 8 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 496 | 426 | 91 | 21 | 2 | 14 | 64 | 214 | 1 | 33 | 5 | 214 | 318 | 371 | 689 | 157 | 379 | 43 | 13 | 310 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 52 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 152 | 255 | 261 | 516 | 109 | 404 | 58 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 361 | 322 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 209 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 140 | 226 | 202 | 427 | 62 | 366 | 58 | 9 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 468 | 429 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 270 | 5 | 39 | 3 | 135 | 202 | 224 | 425 | 89 | 318 | 58 | 7 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 331 | 302 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 177 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 139 | 205 | 219 | 424 | 79 | 303 | 53 | 7 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 451 | 65 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 276 | 1 | 33 | 5 | 144 | 218 | 251 | 468 | 106 | 320 | 56 | 8 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 468 | 429 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 270 | 5 | 39 | 3 | 135 | 202 | 224 | 425 | 89 | 318 | 58 | 7 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 331 | 302 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 177 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 139 | 205 | 219 | 424 | 79 | 303 | 53 | 7 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 451 | 65 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 276 | 1 | 33 | 5 | 144 | 218 | 251 | 468 | 106 | 320 | 56 | 8 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | WSH | 0% | 587 | 534 | 77 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 295 | 2 | 21 | 3 | 144 | 215 | 241 | 456 | 97 | 283 | 50 | 8 | 210 | 28 | -50 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +13 | -1.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | WSH | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 214 | 240 | 455 | 96 | 283 | 100 | 0 | 210 | 28 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | WSH | 30% | 454 | 413 | 62 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 221 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 151 | 223 | 257 | 480 | 106 | 285 | 49 | 8 | 220 | 35 | -35 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -2.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | WSH | 30% | 138 | 125 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 67 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 151 | 222 | 256 | 478 | 105 | 284 | 49 | 8 | 219 | 35 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 138 | 125 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 67 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 152 | 226 | 256 | 482 | 104 | 286 | 49 | 8 | 219 | 25 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 589 | 90 | 19 | 0 | 14 | 52 | 316 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 153 | 228 | 256 | 484 | 104 | 288 | 49 | 8 | 219 | 25 | -50 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -3.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2372 | 2156 | 306 | 59 | 9 | 40 | 185 | 1289 | 16 | 146 | 17 | 142 | 215 | 233 | 448 | 91 | 317 | 54 | 8 | 206 | 25 | -53 | +4 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -3.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 83 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 51 | 353 | 4 | 40 | 5 | 140 | 214 | 230 | 444 | 90 | 312 | 54 | 8 | 206 | 25 | -52 | +4 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -3.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 377 PAwOBA .315 → .208 (−108)K% 44.6% → 58.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 44.56% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 58.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 7.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.981 | ×0.998 | 24.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.981 | ×0.998 | 7.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.981 | ×0.998 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 6.67% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .315 → .208; ISO .163 → .111; BABIP .416 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 119 PAwOBA .272 → .217 (−55)K% 38.7% → 47.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.66% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 47.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 10.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.985 | ×1.027 | 14.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.985 | ×1.027 | 9.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | ×1.027 | 1.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 2.97% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .272 → .217; ISO .140 → .112; BABIP .278 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 140 PAwOBA .245 → .157 (−88)K% 45.7% → 62.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 45.71% | ÷0.960 | ×1.310 | — | — | 62.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.43% | ÷0.986 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 7.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.12% | ÷1.004 | ×0.870 | ×1.045 | ×1.012 | 24.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.39% | ÷0.948 | ×0.780 | ×1.045 | ×1.012 | 2.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.045 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.08% | ÷0.967 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 4.68% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .245 → .157; ISO .089 → .058; BABIP .321 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 113 PAwOBA .290 → .195 (−94)K% 34.5% → 48.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.51% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 48.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.96% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.44% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | — | 20.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | — | 7.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | ×0.993 | — | 2.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.040 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.20% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 109, 2B 110, 3B 121, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .290 → .195; ISO .126 → .080; BABIP .365 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Nationals · 78 PAwOBA .440 → .264 (−176)K% 30.8% → 44.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.77% | ÷0.995 | ×1.440 | — | — | 44.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.95% | ÷1.012 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 10.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.50% | ÷0.946 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 23.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.138 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 6.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.929 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.328 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 7.16% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 89, 2B 128, 3B 86, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .440 → .264; ISO .297 → .151; BABIP .429 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 468 PAwOBA .286 → .191 (−96)K% 44.0% → 57.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 44.02% | ÷1.038 | ×1.360 | — | — | 57.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.83% | ÷1.044 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.07% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.44% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | ×0.961 | ×1.015 | 23.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.73% | ÷0.907 | ×0.830 | ×0.961 | ×1.015 | 6.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.961 | ×1.015 | 1.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 4.71% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 108, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .286 → .191; ISO .147 → .091; BABIP .371 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 332 PAwOBA .288 → .193 (−95)K% 41.9% → 58.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.87% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 58.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.55% | ÷1.126 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.87% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×1.016 | ×1.030 | 27.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.15% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×1.016 | ×1.030 | 7.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.016 | ×1.030 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.82% | ÷0.917 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.53% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 103, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .288 → .193; ISO .096 → .062; BABIP .393 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Nationals · 29 PAwOBA .454 → .286 (−168)K% 37.9% → 54.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.93% | ÷1.011 | ×1.440 | — | — | 54.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 24.14% | ÷1.013 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 14.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.36% | ÷0.983 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 30.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.971 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 6.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.034 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 6.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 7.06% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 107, K 102, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .454 → .286; ISO .273 → .167; BABIP .600 → .465. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).