Frankie Scalzo Jr.

Frankie Scalzo Jr. P Knoxville Smokies

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%17.8%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	9	34	8	1	1	0%	1.5	23.5%	2.9%	20.6%	2.9%	1.00	3.10	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	9	34	8	1	1	0%	1.5	23.5%	2.9%	20.6%	2.9%	1.00	3.10	—
2022	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	23	0	45	198	64	25	2	0%	1.9	23.9%	14.9%	9.0%	1.4%	4.63	3.73	—
2022	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	23	0	45	198	64	25	2	0%	1.9	32.3%	12.6%	19.7%	1.0%	4.63	2.50	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	73	300	73	24	5	3%	1.9	17.9%	8.3%	9.5%	1.9%	2.35	3.69	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	73	300	73	24	5	3%	1.9	17.9%	8.3%	9.5%	1.9%	2.35	3.69	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	1	73	300	73	24	5	3%	1.9	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	1.7%	2.35	2.98	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	55	231	48	22	3	0%	1.2	17.1%	9.1%	8.0%	1.3%	2.14	3.53	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	55	231	48	22	3	0%	1.2	17.1%	9.1%	8.0%	1.3%	2.14	3.53	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	55	231	48	22	3	0%	1.2	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	1.3%	2.14	3.26	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	4	40	191	39	25	10	13%	1.3	16.7%	13.0%	3.7%	5.8%	8.17	6.54	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	4	40	191	39	25	10	13%	1.3	16.7%	13.0%	3.7%	5.8%	8.17	6.54	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	4	40	191	39	25	10	13%	1.3	20.4%	13.1%	7.3%	5.2%	8.17	6.30	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	33	4	50	236	50	26	5	12%	1.5	17.7%	12.3%	5.4%	2.7%	5.26	4.63	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	33	4	50	236	50	26	5	12%	1.5	17.7%	12.3%	5.4%	2.7%	5.26	4.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	CHC	32	4	48	224	49	25	5	12%	1.5	21.9%	11.2%	10.7%	2.2%	4.91	3.89	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	CHC	1	0	2	12	1	1	0	0%	2.0	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	0.0%	13.50	3.45	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CHC	46	0	48	205	38	22	7	0%	1.1	18.3%	10.8%	7.5%	3.4%	5.15	5.17	-0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	45	0	47	198	37	22	7	0%	1.0	18.6%	10.8%	7.8%	3.5%	5.15	5.19	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	43	0	45	190	35	21	7	0%	1.0	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	3.6%	5.21	5.27	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	CHC	17	0	18	76	14	8	3	0%	1.1	18.3%	10.8%	7.5%	3.4%	5.15	5.17	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	27	0	28	118	22	13	4	0%	1.0	18.6%	10.8%	7.8%	3.5%	5.15	5.19	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	30	0	32	135	25	15	5	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	3.6%	5.21	5.27	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	0	78	329	61	36	12	0%	1.1	18.5%	10.9%	7.6%	3.5%	5.17	4.84	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	92	31	0%	1.1	18.5%	10.9%	7.6%	3.5%	5.17	4.84	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		176	9	270	1190	222	130	30	5%	1.5	18.7%	11.0%	7.7%	2.5%	4.03	4.29	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	7	200	880	164	96	22	5%	1.5	18.7%	11.0%	7.7%	2.5%	4.03	4.29	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Frankie Scalzo Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	17.8%	10.9%	3.4%	—	5.21	18.5%	7.6%	140	-0.01	—	—	—
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	86
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	86
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	86
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	85
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	85
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	85
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	84
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	84
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	84
Josh Hejka R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	16.7%	10.8%	2.9%	.363	3.93	15.8%	8.7%	77	-0.72	2.91	198	84
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	84
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	83
Adrian Garza R 2015 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	14.9%	10.5%	4.2%	.360	4.17	13.1%	6.5%	84	-1.30	3.94	229	83
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	83
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	83
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	82
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.19 FIP	25	SU	5.19	18.4%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.59	16.6%	9.3%	85	-1.60	3.20	213	82
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	42	18.4%	10.9%	1.34	5.18
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50