Frankie Scalzo Jr.
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 28 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA5.02
FIP5.02
K%20.2%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%9.0%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.5% | 2.9% | 20.6% | 2.9% | 1.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.5% | 2.9% | 20.6% | 2.9% | 1.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 23 | 0 | 45 | 198 | 64 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.9 | 23.9% | 14.9% | 9.0% | 1.5% | 4.63 | 3.78 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 23 | 0 | 45 | 198 | 64 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.9 | 32.3% | 12.6% | 19.7% | 1.0% | 4.63 | 2.50 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 1 | 73 | 300 | 73 | 24 | 5 | 3% | 1.9 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 1.6% | 2.35 | 3.54 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 1 | 73 | 300 | 73 | 24 | 5 | 3% | 1.9 | 24.3% | 8.0% | 16.3% | 1.7% | 2.35 | 2.98 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 48 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 1.2% | 2.14 | 3.56 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 48 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 1.3% | 2.14 | 3.26 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 4 | 40 | 191 | 39 | 25 | 10 | 13% | 1.3 | 17.2% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 8.17 | 6.63 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 4 | 40 | 191 | 39 | 25 | 10 | 13% | 1.3 | 20.4% | 13.1% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 8.17 | 6.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 19 | 4 | 34 | 158 | 32 | 19 | 4 | 21% | 1.8 | 17.2% | 13.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.61 | 5.17 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CHC | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 62 | 276 | 56 | 32 | 8 | — | — | 20.2% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 5.34 | 5.10 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.2% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 26 | 0 | 28 | 116 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 4.61 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 165 | 92 | 37 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 4.61 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 162 | 9 | 254 | 1112 | 210 | 127 | 28 | 6% | 1.6 | 18.9% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 4.00 | 4.34 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 7 | 200 | 874 | 165 | 100 | 22 | 6% | 1.6 | 18.9% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 4.00 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Frankie Scalzo Jr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 3.3% | — | 4.99 | 20.5% | 9.4% | 28 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 86 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 85 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 85 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 84 |
| Zach Bryant R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.82 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 3.7% | .313 | 4.72 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 84 | -0.10 | 4.36 | 194 | 84 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 84 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.06 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 4.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 183 | 84 |
| Carter Rustad R 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 83 |
| Guido Knudson R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.83 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 106 | 83 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 83 |
| Justin Courtney R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.26 | 16.8% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .331 | 9.13 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 21 | +3.87 | 4.53 | 108 | 83 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.24 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 4.5% | .293 | 4.39 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.85 | 1.27 | 164 | 82 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.28 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .304 | 3.13 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 51 | -1.15 | 3.02 | 214 | 82 |
| Ryan Cook R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 82 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.21 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 4.1% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 152 | 82 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.03 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.5% | .274 | 6.73 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.70 | 4.95 | 183 | 82 |
| David Holman R 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 82 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.58 | 17.1% | 4.9% | 50 | -0.70 | 3.50 | 219 | 82 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 3.61 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.90 | 3.16 | 377 | 82 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 20.3% | 11.1% | 1.30 | 5.00 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |