Nathan Dettmer
P
Lansing Lugnuts
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
A+
peak 0.8 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 128
ERA5.68
FIP5.68
K%11.1%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%-0.9%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 150 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 27.3% | 9.1% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.95 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 27.3% | 9.1% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.10 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Stockton Ports | 4 | 3 | 10 | 48 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 75% | 2.4 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 4.2% | 10.24 | 4.51 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Stockton Ports | 4 | 3 | 10 | 48 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 75% | 2.4 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 4.2% | 10.24 | 4.76 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 109 | 505 | 88 | 45 | 10 | 80% | 4.4 | 13.0% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 5.93 | 4.71 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 109 | 505 | 88 | 45 | 10 | 80% | 4.4 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 2.0% | 5.93 | 3.91 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 16 | 15 | 80 | 333 | 77 | 25 | 3 | 94% | 5.0 | 17.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.70 | 3.34 | +1.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 69 | 293 | 33 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 11.1% | 12.0% | -0.9% | 3.0% | 5.68 | 5.68 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.1% | 12.0% | -0.9% | 3.0% | 5.68 | 5.68 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 150 | 626 | 110 | 60 | 12 | — | — | 17.5% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 1.9% | 4.62 | 4.43 | +1.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 11.1% | 12.0% | -0.9% | 3.0% | 5.68 | 5.30 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 78 | 327 | 45 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 13.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 5.45 | 5.38 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 78 | 327 | 50 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.3% | 11.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 5.29 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 76 | 322 | 51 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.7% | 11.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.23 | 5.22 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 49 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.8% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 5.25 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 71 | 299 | 46 | 34 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.5% | 11.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.35 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 19 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 13.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 5.45 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 33 | 24 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 15.3% | 11.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 5.29 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 39 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.7% | 11.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.23 | 5.22 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 41 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.8% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 5.25 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 41 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.5% | 11.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.35 | 5.41 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 45 | 45 | 268 | 1133 | 174 | 128 | 35 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.3% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 5.30 | 4.92 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 130 | 95 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.3% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 5.30 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 47 | 40 | 202 | 897 | 138 | 87 | 19 | 85% | 4.3 | 15.4% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 5.16 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 40 | 200 | 887 | 137 | 86 | 18 | 85% | 4.3 | 15.4% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 5.16 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nathan Dettmer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.68 | 11.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | — | 5.28 | 14.9% | 3.7% | 231 | -0.40 | — | — | — |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .266 | 4.16 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 187 | -1.00 | 3.55 | 287 | 85 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2028 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 85 |
| Tanner Hall R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 84 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 83 |
| Kevin Biondic R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.39 | 8.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.39 | 100 | 83 |
| Drew Gagnon R 2027 · 5.78 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.6% | 12.6% | 3.8% | .313 | 4.01 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 311 | -1.77 | 3.74 | 534 | 82 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.52 | 15.4% | 13.1% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.95 | 13.8% | -5.5% | 46 | +0.43 | 4.52 | 196 | 81 |
| Sam Wolff R 2027 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.61 | 13.9% | 15.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 3.15 | 25.1% | 15.5% | 106 | -2.46 | 2.74 | 178 | 80 |
| Hayden Merda R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 80 |
| Keith Couch R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.63 | 9.8% | 9.4% | 2.1% | .326 | 3.92 | 11.0% | 3.6% | 127 | -0.71 | 3.92 | 252 | 79 |
| Braden Olthoff R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.57 | 12.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 108 | 79 |
| Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.52 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.14 | 4.27 | 279 | 79 |
| Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.94 | 14.0% | 13.0% | 2.5% | .280 | 5.59 | 19.0% | 5.2% | 79 | +0.65 | 3.71 | 370 | 79 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.49 | 13.0% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.34 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 217 | -0.15 | 3.71 | 361 | 79 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 78 |
| Allen Webster R 2027 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 78 |
| Will Ethridge R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.47 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 3.9% | .253 | 3.57 | 15.6% | 1.5% | 17 | -1.90 | 3.57 | 227 | 78 |
| Junior Mendez R 2024 · 5.53 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.53 | 9.1% | 10.6% | 3.4% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.53 | 131 | 78 |
| Parker Smith R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.01 | 13.3% | 8.9% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 132 | 78 |
| Thomas Farr R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.35 | 12.9% | 9.7% | 3.8% | .278 | 5.31 | 11.7% | 1.8% | 193 | -0.04 | 4.93 | 408 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 75 | 14.5% | 11.4% | 1.18 | 5.38 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |