Nathan Dettmer
P
Stockton Ports
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.2 · 2029
ERA4.76
FIP4.76
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.8%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%9.0%
IP109
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2029
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Stockton Ports | 4 | 3 | 10 | 48 | 11 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 10.24 | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 25 | 20 | 109 | 505 | 88 | 45 | 10 | 13.0% | 10.4% | 2.5% | 5.93 | 4.70 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A | Stockton Ports | 3 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 12 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.22 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 87 | 45 | 14 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 120 | 506 | 99 | 47 | 15 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.34 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 22 | 123 | 518 | 103 | 48 | 15 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.59 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 112 | 50 | 16 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 133 | 560 | 115 | 51 | 17 | 20.5% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.52 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 133 | 560 | 115 | 51 | 17 | 20.5% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 111 | 50 | 17 | 20.3% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.59 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 107 | 49 | 16 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.65 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 22 | 121 | 513 | 102 | 48 | 16 | 19.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 21 | 21 | 116 | 492 | 97 | 47 | 16 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 20 | 20 | 111 | 470 | 91 | 46 | 16 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 85 | 44 | 15 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 5.02 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 78 | 43 | 15 | 18.6% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 5.14 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 17 | 93 | 393 | 71 | 41 | 14 | 18.1% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.19 | 5.28 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 34 | 27 | 133 | 609 | 92 | 60 | 16 | 15.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 5.97 | 4.48 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 41 | 200 | 918 | 139 | 90 | 24 | 15.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 5.97 | 4.48 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nathan Dettmer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.55 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 385 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 94 |
| Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.25 | 4.25 | 279 | 93 |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.4% | .266 | 4.02 | 16.6% | 3.9% | 169 | -1.25 | 3.56 | 269 | 91 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .271 | 5.93 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.41 | 4.52 | 358 | 91 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 91 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 90 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 90 |
| Blaine Knight R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.60 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .263 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 159 | +0.05 | 4.35 | 269 | 90 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.28 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .293 | 4.42 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.86 | 3.98 | 481 | 90 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 90 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 1.8% | .311 | 3.86 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 203 | -0.22 | 3.77 | 295 | 90 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 90 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.95 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 373 | 89 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.08 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 57 | +0.50 | 4.27 | 238 | 89 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.67 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 58 | +1.05 | 4.17 | 347 | 89 |
| Trenton Toplikar R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 14.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .248 | 5.40 | 16.5% | 6.4% | 123 | +1.09 | 4.31 | 232 | 89 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 89 |
| Jason Savacool R 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 89 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .299 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 159 | -0.07 | 3.48 | 383 | 88 |
| Jackson Wentworth R 2024 · 4.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.95 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.95 | 124 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.6 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $23M | +$20M | ||