Nathan Dettmer — OGILVIE

Nathan Dettmer P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs A+ peak 0.8 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION116 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 124

ERA5.66

FIP5.66

K%11.1%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%-0.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	2	2	3	11	3	1	0	100%	1.5	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.95	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	2	2	3	11	3	1	0	100%	1.5	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.95	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	2	2	3	11	3	1	0	100%	1.5	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2024	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	4	3	10	48	11	4	2	75%	2.4	22.9%	8.3%	14.6%	4.2%	10.24	4.51	—
2024	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	4	3	10	48	11	4	2	75%	2.4	22.9%	8.3%	14.6%	4.2%	10.24	4.51	—
2024	22	A RAW	Stockton Ports	4	3	10	48	11	4	2	75%	2.4	22.9%	8.3%	14.6%	4.2%	10.24	4.76	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	109	505	88	45	10	80%	4.4	13.0%	10.4%	2.6%	2.5%	5.93	4.69	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	109	505	88	45	10	80%	4.4	13.0%	10.4%	2.6%	2.5%	5.93	4.69	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	109	505	88	45	10	80%	4.4	17.4%	8.9%	8.5%	2.0%	5.93	3.91	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	25	22	116	496	109	33	14	88%	4.6	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	3.4%	4.97	4.51	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	25	22	116	496	109	33	14	88%	4.6	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	3.4%	4.97	4.51	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	OAK	6	5	27	110	26	5	1	83%	4.5	23.6%	4.5%	19.1%	0.9%	2.96	2.18	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	OAK	10	10	53	223	51	20	2	100%	5.3	22.9%	9.0%	13.9%	0.9%	4.08	2.80	—
2026	24	AA RAW	OAK	9	7	36	163	32	8	11	78%	4.0	19.6%	4.9%	14.7%	6.7%	7.82	5.77	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	OAK	1	1	6	27	3	3	1	100%	6.4	11.1%	11.9%	-0.8%	2.9%	5.66	5.66	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	122	523	112	36	15	—	—	21.4%	6.9%	14.5%	2.8%	5.00	4.57	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	115	486	66	54	14	100%	5.8	13.6%	11.2%	2.4%	2.9%	5.42	5.36	-0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	115	486	73	53	14	100%	6.1	15.1%	10.9%	4.2%	2.9%	5.25	5.20	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	113	478	74	52	14	100%	6.0	15.5%	10.8%	4.6%	3.0%	5.19	5.19	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	110	464	72	50	14	100%	6.1	15.5%	10.9%	4.6%	3.1%	5.21	5.25	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	105	443	68	49	14	100%	5.8	15.3%	11.1%	4.2%	3.2%	5.31	5.38	-0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	99	417	62	48	14	100%	6.2	14.9%	11.4%	3.5%	3.4%	5.46	5.56	-0.7
2027	25	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	49	207	28	23	6	100%	6.1	13.6%	11.2%	2.4%	2.9%	5.42	5.36	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	76	321	49	35	9	100%	5.8	15.1%	10.9%	4.2%	2.9%	5.25	5.20	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	88	372	57	40	11	100%	5.9	15.5%	10.8%	4.6%	3.0%	5.19	5.19	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	92	388	60	42	12	100%	6.1	15.5%	10.9%	4.6%	3.1%	5.21	5.25	-0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	92	388	59	43	13	100%	6.1	15.3%	11.1%	4.2%	3.2%	5.31	5.38	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	89	376	56	43	13	100%	5.9	14.9%	11.4%	3.5%	3.4%	5.46	5.56	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	81	487	2054	310	227	64	100%	6.0	15.1%	11.0%	4.1%	3.1%	5.30	4.94	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	127	93	26	100%	6.0	15.1%	11.0%	4.1%	3.1%	5.30	4.94	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		56	47	238	1060	164	95	32	84%	4.2	15.5%	9.0%	6.5%	3.0%	5.56	4.57	-3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	39	200	891	138	80	27	84%	4.2	15.5%	9.0%	6.5%	3.0%	5.56	4.57	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nathan Dettmer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.66	11.1%	11.9%	2.9%	—	5.25	14.7%	3.8%	343	-0.41	—	—	—
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	84
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	84
Kevin Biondic R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	8.6%	11.0%	3.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	5.52	100	83
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	83
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	83
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	82
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	81
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	80
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	80
Keith Couch R 2015 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	9.8%	9.4%	2.1%	.326	4.05	11.0%	3.6%	127	-0.60	4.05	252	79
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	79
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	79
Ben Anderson R 2022 · 4.59 FIP	24	SP	4.59	13.0%	12.0%	1.9%	.270	4.32	14.3%	6.0%	217	-0.27	3.80	399	79
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	79
Grahamm Wiest R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP-	5.13	11.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	120	78
Allen Webster R 2015 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP	5.05	14.0%	9.1%	3.6%	.356	5.78	14.9%	6.8%	58	+0.73	4.56	177	78
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	78
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	78
Linder Castro R 2015 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.26	4.23	279	78
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	105	14.6%	11.1%	1.19	5.34
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44