Matt Ager — OGILVIE

Matt Ager P Altoona Curve

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs AA peak 0.7 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION124 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 159151vR 142

ERA6.61

FIP6.61

K%10.0%

BB%18.5%

K-BB%-8.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL3030

CMD2020

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	22	19	76	357	50	47	7	86%	3.5	10.4%	15.5%	-5.2%	2.7%	4.86	5.69	—
2025	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	22	19	76	357	50	47	7	86%	3.5	10.4%	15.5%	-5.2%	2.7%	4.86	5.69	—
2025	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	22	19	76	357	50	47	7	86%	3.5	14.0%	13.2%	0.8%	2.0%	4.86	4.84	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	26	20	124	542	97	39	27	77%	4.8	14.3%	8.0%	6.4%	6.0%	5.52	6.21	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	26	20	124	542	97	39	27	77%	4.8	14.3%	8.0%	6.4%	6.0%	5.52	6.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	PIT	5	0	17	72	24	5	5	0%	3.5	33.3%	6.9%	26.4%	6.9%	4.67	4.98	—
2026	23	AA RAW	PIT	21	20	107	470	73	34	22	95%	5.1	15.5%	7.2%	8.3%	4.7%	5.65	5.27	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	PIT	1	1	5	22	2	4	1	100%	5.2	10.0%	18.5%	-8.5%	3.0%	6.61	6.61	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	129	564	99	43	28	—	—	17.6%	7.6%	10.0%	4.9%	5.56	6.22	-1.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	124	525	68	86	15	100%	5.7	13.0%	16.4%	-3.5%	2.9%	6.19	6.07	-1.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	126	532	79	81	16	100%	5.7	14.8%	15.2%	-0.3%	2.9%	5.87	5.75	-1.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	126	532	84	78	16	100%	6.0	15.9%	14.7%	1.1%	2.9%	5.68	5.61	-1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	124	524	84	77	16	100%	5.9	16.0%	14.6%	1.4%	3.0%	5.63	5.61	-1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	120	508	81	75	16	100%	6.0	15.9%	14.8%	1.1%	3.1%	5.67	5.70	-1.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	115	486	76	73	16	100%	6.1	15.7%	15.0%	0.6%	3.2%	5.77	5.83	-1.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	108	456	70	70	16	100%	6.0	15.3%	15.3%	-0.0%	3.4%	5.91	6.01	-1.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	55	232	30	38	7	100%	5.5	13.0%	16.4%	-3.5%	2.9%	6.19	6.07	-0.7
2028	25	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	84	355	53	54	10	100%	6.0	14.8%	15.2%	-0.3%	2.9%	5.87	5.75	-0.8
2029	26	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	100	422	67	62	12	100%	5.9	15.9%	14.7%	1.1%	2.9%	5.68	5.61	-0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	106	448	72	66	13	100%	5.9	16.0%	14.6%	1.4%	3.0%	5.63	5.61	-0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	107	452	72	67	14	100%	5.9	15.9%	14.8%	1.1%	3.1%	5.67	5.70	-0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	105	443	69	67	14	100%	5.8	15.7%	15.0%	0.6%	3.2%	5.77	5.83	-1.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	100	422	65	65	14	100%	5.9	15.3%	15.3%	-0.0%	3.4%	5.91	6.01	-1.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		110	110	657	2773	427	418	85	100%	6.0	15.4%	15.1%	0.3%	3.1%	5.79	5.40	-3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	130	127	26	100%	5.9	15.4%	15.1%	0.3%	3.1%	5.79	5.40	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		48	39	200	899	115	99	42	81%	4.2	12.7%	11.0%	1.8%	4.7%	5.26	6.00	-8.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	39	200	899	115	99	42	81%	4.2	12.7%	11.0%	1.8%	4.7%	5.26	6.00	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Ager (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.61	10.0%	18.5%	3.0%	—	5.81	14.6%	-0.9%	376	-0.80	—	—	—
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	82
Johnny Hellweg R 2015 · 5.96 FIP	26	SP	5.96	9.9%	19.0%	2.4%	.269	4.06	15.2%	2.0%	48	-1.90	2.98	109	80
Osman Gutierrez R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	22	SP	5.88	13.9%	16.2%	3.5%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	189	75
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	75
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	74
Jaison Vilera R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	11.2%	12.8%	3.4%	.311	7.05	13.8%	5.5%	87	+1.43	3.67	256	73
Yoan López R 2016 · 5.84 FIP	23	SP	5.84	10.4%	12.6%	3.7%	.282	3.67	25.5%	17.4%	153	-2.17	2.21	377	73
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	73
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	3.37	241	72
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	72
Donal Montas R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	21	SP	5.66	8.4%	13.3%	2.9%	.268	4.87	10.2%	-4.0%	78	-0.79	4.10	156	72
Stiven Cruz R 2023 · 6.36 FIP	21	SP-	6.36	13.6%	14.8%	4.6%	.312	4.91	17.3%	6.4%	192	-1.45	2.84	426	72
Aaron Davenport R 2023 · 6.16 FIP	23	SP-	6.16	14.3%	14.7%	4.4%	.272	4.44	17.7%	7.9%	276	-1.72	4.04	498	72
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	72
Kevin Biondic R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	8.6%	11.0%	3.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	5.52	100	71
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	70
Yoscar Pimentel R 2023 · 5.94 FIP	21	SP	5.94	14.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	136	70
Karsen Lindell R 2017 · 6.72 FIP	21	SP-	6.72	9.8%	19.0%	3.7%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	4.94	112	69
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	69
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	113	14.9%	15.4%	1.18	5.87
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32