Matt Ager
P
Altoona Curve
Age 23
RHP
6'6" / 225 lbs
AA
peak 0.6 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 165155vR 146
ERA6.53
FIP6.53
K%10.0%
BB%17.8%
K-BB%-7.8%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 132 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 22 | 19 | 76 | 357 | 50 | 47 | 7 | 86% | 3.5 | 10.4% | 15.5% | -5.2% | 3.0% | 4.86 | 5.81 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 22 | 19 | 76 | 357 | 50 | 47 | 7 | 86% | 3.5 | 14.0% | 13.2% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 4.86 | 4.84 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 16 | 10 | 70 | 298 | 64 | 23 | 10 | 62% | 4.4 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 4.1% | 4.35 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PIT | 9 | 9 | 62 | 260 | 26 | 46 | 8 | 100% | 6.8 | 10.0% | 17.8% | -7.8% | 3.0% | 6.53 | 6.53 | -1.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 17.8% | -7.8% | 3.0% | 6.53 | 6.53 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 132 | 558 | 90 | 69 | 18 | — | — | 16.1% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.37 | 5.71 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 10.0% | 17.8% | -7.8% | 3.0% | 6.53 | 6.15 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 35 | 43 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 13.1% | 16.0% | -2.9% | 3.0% | 6.14 | 6.03 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 40 | 40 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.0% | 14.9% | 0.1% | 2.9% | 5.84 | 5.73 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 43 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.1% | 14.6% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 5.66 | 5.59 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 15 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 13.1% | 16.0% | -2.9% | 3.0% | 6.14 | 6.03 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 27 | 27 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.0% | 14.9% | 0.1% | 2.9% | 5.84 | 5.73 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 35 | 31 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 16.1% | 14.6% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 5.66 | 5.59 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 122 | 517 | 77 | 78 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.0% | 15.1% | -0.1% | 3.0% | 5.84 | 5.37 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 126 | 127 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.0% | 15.1% | -0.1% | 3.0% | 5.84 | 5.37 | +0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 38 | 29 | 146 | 655 | 88 | 81 | 23 | 76% | 3.9 | 13.4% | 12.4% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 5.44 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 40 | 200 | 895 | 120 | 111 | 31 | 76% | 3.9 | 13.4% | 12.4% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 5.44 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Ager (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.53 | 10.0% | 17.8% | 3.0% | — | 5.78 | 14.7% | -0.5% | 191 | -0.75 | — | — | — |
| Mason Pelio R 2026 · 6.26 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.26 | 13.3% | 17.4% | 3.8% | .255 | 5.74 | 9.0% | -12.8% | 26 | -0.52 | 5.74 | 122 | 84 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 83 |
| Johnny Hellweg R 2029 · 5.98 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.98 | 9.9% | 19.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 4.11 | 15.2% | 2.0% | 48 | -1.87 | 2.98 | 109 | 77 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 75 |
| Zander Mueth R 2024 · 6.97 FIP | 21 | SP | 6.97 | 11.9% | 20.3% | 4.2% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 114 | 73 |
| Oscar Verdugo R 2028 · 6.84 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.84 | 10.5% | 13.9% | 5.2% | .241 | 6.16 | 10.8% | -1.8% | 74 | -0.68 | 5.39 | 144 | 73 |
| Ronny Lopez R 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.49 | 10.3% | 17.6% | 1.9% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 121 | 72 |
| Jaison Vilera R 2025 · 5.64 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.64 | 11.2% | 12.8% | 3.4% | .311 | 7.41 | 13.8% | 5.5% | 87 | +1.77 | 3.67 | 256 | 72 |
| Madinson Frias R 2024 · 6.91 FIP | 21 | SP- | 6.91 | 11.4% | 15.0% | 5.2% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 101 | 72 |
| Drew Gagnon R 2028 · 5.78 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.6% | 12.6% | 3.8% | .313 | 4.01 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 311 | -1.77 | 3.74 | 534 | 71 |
| Karsen Lindell R 2024 · 6.72 FIP | 21 | SP- | 6.72 | 9.8% | 19.0% | 3.7% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.94 | 112 | 71 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 6.75 FIP | 23 | SP | 6.75 | 17.9% | 19.5% | 4.9% | .296 | 4.76 | 18.4% | 0.8% | 147 | -1.99 | 4.13 | 217 | 71 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.93 | 17.4% | 15.3% | 4.3% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 101 | 71 |
| Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 6.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.03 | 14.3% | 14.7% | 4.2% | .272 | 4.53 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 276 | -1.50 | 4.09 | 498 | 71 |
| Osman Gutierrez R 2025 · 6.14 FIP | 22 | SP | 6.14 | 13.9% | 16.2% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 189 | 70 |
| Conor Harber R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.48 | 14.1% | 18.0% | 2.4% | .278 | 4.12 | 15.5% | 4.9% | 163 | -1.36 | 2.98 | 333 | 70 |
| Yoan López R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.60 | 10.4% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .282 | 3.58 | 25.5% | 17.4% | 153 | -2.02 | 2.16 | 377 | 70 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 6.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.58 | 18.6% | 18.8% | 4.9% | .322 | 4.51 | 26.9% | 7.8% | 94 | -2.07 | 3.43 | 129 | 70 |
| Erling Moreno R 2025 · 6.08 FIP | 22 | SP- | 6.08 | 7.8% | 18.2% | 2.4% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 213 | 70 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 63 | 13.6% | 15.8% | 1.15 | 6.04 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |