Luis A. Rodriguez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Luis A. Rodriguez P St. Lucie Mets

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 175 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%22.3%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	16	1	25	102	34	13	0	6%	1.6	22.7%	15.9%	6.7%	0.0%	2.49	3.20	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 2	16	1	25	102	34	13	0	6%	1.6	33.3%	12.7%	20.6%	0.0%	2.49	1.96	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	16	0	32	131	37	14	2	0%	2.0	19.2%	13.4%	5.8%	2.0%	1.41	4.26	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	16	0	32	131	37	14	2	0%	2.0	28.2%	10.7%	17.6%	1.5%	1.41	2.91	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	0	32	130	30	14	2	0%	1.7	13.7%	12.2%	1.6%	2.1%	3.69	4.64	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	0	32	130	30	14	2	0%	1.7	13.7%	12.2%	1.6%	2.1%	3.69	4.64	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	0	32	130	30	14	2	0%	1.7	23.1%	10.8%	12.3%	1.5%	3.69	3.35	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.3%	10.0%	12.3%	3.0%	4.50	4.50	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYM	19	0	20	84	19	8	3	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	3.0%	4.41	4.36	+0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYM	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	3.0%	4.41	4.36	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	3	1	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	3.0%	4.41	3.98	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	70	23	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	3.0%	4.41	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		51	1	89	363	66	50	5	2%	1.7	18.2%	13.7%	4.6%	1.5%	2.53	4.10	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	2	200	816	149	111	12	2%	1.7	18.2%	13.7%	4.6%	1.5%	2.53	4.10	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis A. Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	22.3%	10.0%	3.0%	—	4.36	22.9%	13.5%	20	-0.14	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	92
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	90
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	89
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.27	286	89
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	88
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	87
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	86
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	86
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	86
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	86
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	85
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	85
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	85
Joey Stock R 2021 · 3.34 FIP	23	SU	3.34	20.4%	9.8%	1.3%	.275	5.04	22.5%	6.8%	95	+1.70	3.34	121	85
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	85
Stolmy Pimentel R 2014 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.7%	9.5%	3.6%	.319	4.17	14.8%	4.3%	143	+0.04	3.87	176	85
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	85
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	85
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	85
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	85