Jogly Garcia prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jogly Garcia P FCL Red Sox

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%22.7%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	5	0	3	24	5	14	0	0%	0.6	20.8%	58.3%	-37.5%	0.0%	12.00	8.73	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	5	0	3	24	5	14	0	0%	0.6	20.8%	58.3%	-37.5%	0.0%	12.00	13.77	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	13	1	34	151	25	8	1	8%	2.6	11.3%	6.6%	4.6%	0.9%	4.28	3.50	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Red	13	1	34	151	25	8	1	8%	2.6	16.6%	5.3%	11.3%	0.7%	4.28	2.71	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	13	0	19	92	16	10	4	0%	1.5	11.8%	13.6%	-1.8%	6.3%	9.47	7.25	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	13	0	19	92	16	10	4	0%	1.5	11.8%	13.6%	-1.8%	6.3%	9.47	7.25	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	13	0	19	92	16	10	4	0%	1.5	17.4%	10.9%	6.5%	4.3%	9.47	5.73	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.7%	10.3%	12.5%	3.0%	4.52	4.52	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.6%	14.0%	3.0%	4.40	4.33	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	BOS	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.6%	14.0%	3.0%	4.40	4.33	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.6%	14.0%	3.0%	4.40	3.95	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	81	20	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.6%	14.0%	3.0%	4.40	3.95	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		31	1	56	267	33	36	7	3%	1.8	12.3%	13.7%	-1.4%	2.7%	6.47	5.26	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	4	200	959	118	131	26	3%	1.8	12.3%	13.7%	-1.4%	2.7%	6.47	5.26	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jogly Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	22.7%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.33	23.5%	14.0%	20	-0.19	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	90
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.27	286	89
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	89
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	88
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	88
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	86
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	86
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	86
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	85
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	85
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	85
Jorge Julio R 2001 · 3.48 FIP	22	SU	3.48	22.2%	9.1%	2.0%	.348	4.31	20.4%	10.1%	199	+0.83	3.48	467	85
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	85
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	84
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	84
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	84
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	84
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	84