Juan Martinez
P
Daytona Tortugas
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 160 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 61 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 160151vR 142
ERA6.32
FIP6.32
K%10.5%
BB%17.2%
K-BB%-6.6%
ROS IP61
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 11 | 9 | 45 | 199 | 50 | 23 | 1 | 82% | 4.1 | 17.1% | 14.4% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 4.03 | 3.81 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 11 | 9 | 45 | 199 | 50 | 23 | 1 | 82% | 4.1 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 0.5% | 4.03 | 2.70 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | 12 | 6 | 38 | 181 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 50% | 3.2 | 15.8% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 1.6% | 4.97 | 3.46 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | 12 | 6 | 38 | 181 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 50% | 3.2 | 23.2% | 5.0% | 18.2% | 1.1% | 4.97 | 2.28 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 5 | 30 | 148 | 32 | 20 | 0 | 42% | 2.5 | 14.2% | 16.5% | -2.2% | 0.0% | 7.42 | 3.98 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 5 | 30 | 148 | 32 | 20 | 0 | 42% | 2.5 | 21.6% | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.0% | 7.42 | 2.97 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 11 | 6 | 39 | 167 | 35 | 16 | 3 | 55% | 3.6 | 15.5% | 11.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 3.89 | 4.33 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 11 | 6 | 39 | 167 | 35 | 16 | 3 | 55% | 3.6 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 1.8% | 3.89 | 3.53 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 9 | 56 | 254 | 38 | 33 | 4 | 60% | 3.8 | 11.1% | 15.8% | -4.7% | 2.0% | 5.59 | 5.28 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 9 | 56 | 254 | 38 | 33 | 4 | 60% | 3.8 | 15.0% | 13.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 5.59 | 4.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 62 | 260 | 27 | 45 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 10.5% | 17.2% | -6.6% | 2.8% | 6.32 | 6.32 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 36 | 41 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 13.5% | 15.6% | -2.1% | 2.8% | 5.96 | 5.86 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 41 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.3% | 14.6% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 5.69 | 5.58 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 4 | 4 | 27 | 114 | 15 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 6.8 | 13.5% | 15.6% | -2.1% | 2.8% | 5.96 | 5.86 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 27 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.3% | 14.6% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 5.69 | 5.58 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 12 | 69 | 293 | 43 | 44 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.6% | 15.0% | -0.4% | 2.8% | 5.80 | 5.31 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 124 | 127 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.6% | 15.0% | -0.4% | 2.8% | 5.80 | 5.31 | +0.2 | ||
| Career | — | 61 | 35 | 209 | 949 | 138 | 123 | 13 | 57% | 3.4 | 14.5% | 13.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 5.09 | 4.26 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 34 | 200 | 910 | 132 | 118 | 12 | 57% | 3.4 | 14.5% | 13.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 5.09 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Martinez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.32 | 10.5% | 17.2% | 2.8% | — | 5.72 | 14.4% | -0.7% | 127 | -0.60 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Brashears R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 79 |
| Boone Whiting R 2028 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.21 | 11.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.78 | 10.9% | 4.8% | 132 | -0.43 | 4.78 | 227 | 79 |
| Drew Conover R 2026 · 6.30 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.30 | 15.6% | 29.8% | 1.4% | .272 | 5.34 | 11.7% | -3.6% | 96 | -0.96 | 4.52 | 135 | 78 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 78 |
| Mason Pelio R 2026 · 6.26 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.26 | 13.3% | 17.4% | 3.8% | .255 | 5.74 | 9.0% | -12.8% | 26 | -0.52 | 5.74 | 122 | 78 |
| Zach Willeman R 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.55 | 10.8% | 15.0% | 2.6% | .296 | 5.10 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 108 | -0.45 | 4.15 | 264 | 77 |
| Erling Moreno R 2025 · 6.08 FIP | 22 | SP- | 6.08 | 7.8% | 18.2% | 2.4% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 213 | 77 |
| Ted Stuka R 2027 · 5.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.78 | 12.4% | 23.4% | 1.4% | .262 | 6.34 | 15.9% | -13.1% | 41 | +0.56 | 5.51 | 105 | 77 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 76 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 76 |
| Tyler Schlaffer R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.5% | 13.3% | 3.1% | .298 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 154 | -1.01 | 4.01 | 363 | 75 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 6.06 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.06 | 12.6% | 24.0% | 1.8% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 144 | 75 |
| Oscar Verdugo R 2028 · 6.84 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.84 | 10.5% | 13.9% | 5.2% | .241 | 6.16 | 10.8% | -1.8% | 74 | -0.68 | 5.39 | 144 | 75 |
| Dawson Netz R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 74 |
| Carlson Reed R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 74 |
| Danny Flatt R 2025 · 5.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.31 | 12.9% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.31 | 112 | 74 |
| Ramsey David R 2027 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 74 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 73 |
| Michael Petersen R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.81 | 14.8% | 17.5% | 3.2% | .336 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.9% | 122 | -1.53 | 3.05 | 381 | 73 |
| Conor Harber R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.48 | 14.1% | 18.0% | 2.4% | .278 | 4.12 | 15.5% | 4.9% | 163 | -1.36 | 2.98 | 333 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 13.1% | 15.7% | 1.09 | 5.99 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |