Yaqui Rivera

P Norfolk Tides

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 150 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #1027

ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+Aberdeen Iron…	37	0	54	1.99	2.90	25.9%	11.8%	—	K 19.9% · BB 13.6% · FIP 3.73
2025	22	AABAL	27	0	34	3.97	3.60	29.9%	15.3%	—	K 24.2% · BB 16.8% · FIP 4.19
2026	23	MIX2 levels	36	8	80	3.28	3.30	29.0%	11.8%	—	K 24.4% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.75
2027PROJ	24	MLBBAL	86	0	90	4.54	4.54	24.9%	13.4%	0.0
2028PROJ48% MLB	25	MLBBAL	42	0	44	4.44	4.39	25.2%	12.3%	0.1
2029PROJ69% MLB	26	MLBBAL	60	0	63	4.38	4.35	25.3%	11.9%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Command35FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 82%

CompsAndrew Politi (age 23) · Barrett Loseke (age 24) · Todd Van Steensel (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%24.9%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5060

CMD3035

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	12	12	39	167	45	18	2	100%	3.2	18.3%	13.5%	4.9%	1.2%	3.69	3.92	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	12	12	39	167	45	18	2	100%	3.2	26.9%	10.8%	16.2%	1.2%	3.69	2.84	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	38	174	49	20	2	0%	2.0	21.0%	12.4%	8.6%	1.4%	5.68	3.67	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	38	174	49	20	2	0%	2.0	28.2%	11.5%	16.7%	1.1%	5.68	2.78	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	2	50	212	68	33	2	7%	1.7	24.1%	18.2%	5.9%	1.2%	2.52	4.03	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	2	50	212	68	33	2	7%	1.7	32.1%	15.6%	16.5%	0.9%	2.52	2.88	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	37	0	54	228	59	27	2	0%	1.5	19.9%	13.6%	6.3%	1.1%	1.99	3.73	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	37	0	54	228	59	27	2	0%	1.5	19.9%	13.6%	6.3%	1.1%	1.99	3.73	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	37	0	54	228	59	27	2	0%	1.5	25.9%	11.8%	14.0%	0.9%	1.99	2.90	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	27	0	34	157	47	24	3	0%	1.3	24.2%	16.8%	7.4%	1.8%	3.97	4.19	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	27	0	34	157	47	24	3	0%	1.3	24.2%	16.8%	7.4%	1.8%	3.97	4.19	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	27	0	34	157	47	24	3	0%	1.3	29.9%	15.3%	14.6%	1.9%	3.97	3.60	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	8	80	331	96	39	7	22%	2.2	24.4%	11.1%	13.3%	2.4%	3.28	3.75	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	8	80	331	96	39	7	22%	2.2	24.4%	11.1%	13.3%	2.4%	3.28	3.75	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	8	80	331	96	39	7	22%	2.2	29.0%	11.8%	17.2%	2.1%	3.28	3.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	86	0	90	380	95	51	10	0%	1.0	24.9%	13.4%	11.6%	2.7%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	87	0	91	385	97	47	10	0%	1.0	25.2%	12.3%	12.9%	2.7%	4.44	4.39	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	87	0	91	385	97	46	10	0%	1.0	25.3%	11.9%	13.4%	2.7%	4.38	4.35	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	85	0	90	379	95	45	11	0%	1.1	25.1%	11.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.38	4.38	+0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	83	0	87	367	91	43	11	0%	1.0	24.9%	11.8%	13.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.46	+0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	79	0	83	351	86	42	11	0%	1.1	24.6%	12.0%	12.6%	3.0%	4.53	4.59	-0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	74	0	78	330	87	38	11	0%	1.1	26.3%	11.6%	14.8%	3.2%	4.51	4.50	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	42	0	44	186	47	23	5	0%	1.0	25.2%	12.3%	12.9%	2.7%	4.44	4.39	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	60	0	63	266	67	32	7	0%	1.1	25.3%	11.9%	13.4%	2.7%	4.38	4.35	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	68	0	71	300	75	35	8	0%	1.0	25.1%	11.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.38	4.38	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	70	0	74	312	78	37	9	0%	1.1	24.9%	11.8%	13.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.46	+0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	70	0	73	308	76	37	9	0%	1.0	24.6%	12.0%	12.6%	3.0%	4.53	4.59	-0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	68	0	71	300	79	35	10	0%	1.0	26.3%	11.6%	14.8%	3.2%	4.51	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		377	0	396	1673	422	199	49	0%	1.1	25.2%	11.9%	13.4%	2.9%	4.45	4.07	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	213	100	25	0%	1.1	25.2%	11.9%	13.4%	2.9%	4.45	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		160	22	295	1269	283	177	20	14%	1.8	22.3%	13.9%	8.3%	1.6%	3.36	3.86	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	15	200	860	192	120	14	14%	1.8	22.3%	13.9%	8.3%	1.6%	3.36	3.86	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yaqui Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	24.9%	13.4%	2.7%	—	4.37	25.2%	13.2%	272	-0.17	—	—	—
Andrew Politi R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	22.6%	13.0%	1.4%	.274	4.33	23.4%	13.0%	144	+0.71	3.38	292	86
Barrett Loseke R 2021 · 4.64 FIP	24	SU	4.64	26.2%	12.8%	3.9%	.282	4.63	22.2%	11.8%	86	-0.01	4.42	152	84
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	83
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	83
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	83
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	83
Peter Tago R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	24.4%	14.0%	1.5%	.303	3.44	23.6%	8.3%	39	-0.21	3.26	207	82
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	82
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	82
Mason Vinyard R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.67	19.3%	6.0%	147	+0.94	3.60	207	82
Trevor Holloway R 2021 · 3.44 FIP	24	SU	3.44	21.9%	11.7%	1.3%	.266	4.55	17.9%	6.1%	43	+1.11	3.44	112	81
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	81
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	81
Johnny Barbato R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.4%	11.2%	2.0%	.282	4.66	21.1%	11.6%	105	+0.93	2.59	304	81
Josh White R 2024 · 3.39 FIP	23	SU	3.39	24.5%	11.4%	1.7%	.319	3.03	29.2%	19.1%	124	-0.36	1.84	247	81
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	81
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	80
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	80
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	80
Aaron Crow R 2011 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	24.4%	10.9%	3.2%	.287	4.16	20.1%	11.4%	172	-0.04	2.88	234	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	25.2%	12.1%	1.10	4.46
Tom Cheney ('57-'66, 4 WAR*)	2.3	93	23.8%*	11.9%*	1.20*	4.06*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Paul Erickson ('41-'48, 4 WAR*)	4.1	102	26.2%*	11.2%*	0.93*	4.61*
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11