Adiel Melendez

P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 25 LHP A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	24	AATL	26	52	2.42	2.97	29.8%	10.2%	—	K 22.0% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.16
2027PROJ	25	MLBATL	34	36	4.66	4.66	22.5%	11.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBATL	19	20	4.61	4.60	22.8%	11.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBATL	28	29	4.61	4.62	22.9%	11.2%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsColton Johnson (age 26) · Will Gilbert (age 25) · Pedro Feliciano (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 122

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%22.5%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	24	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	26	0	52	205	61	21	4	0%	2.0	22.0%	12.1%	9.9%	2.5%	2.42	4.16	—
2026	24	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	26	0	52	205	61	21	4	0%	2.0	22.0%	12.1%	9.9%	2.5%	2.42	4.16	—
2026	24	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	26	0	52	205	61	21	4	0%	2.0	29.8%	10.2%	19.5%	2.0%	2.42	2.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ATL	34	0	36	152	34	18	4	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.5%	11.0%	3.0%	4.66	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ATL	45	0	47	198	45	22	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.3%	11.6%	3.0%	4.61	4.60	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	ATL	44	0	46	195	44	22	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	3.0%	4.61	4.62	-0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	ATL	43	0	45	189	43	21	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.2%	11.5%	3.1%	4.65	4.69	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ATL	19	0	20	84	19	10	2	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.3%	11.6%	3.0%	4.61	4.60	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	ATL	28	0	29	122	28	14	4	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	3.0%	4.61	4.62	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	ATL	32	0	34	144	33	16	4	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.2%	11.5%	3.1%	4.65	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		79	0	82	348	79	39	11	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	3.0%	4.63	4.26	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	95	27	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	3.0%	4.63	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		26	0	52	205	45	25	5	0%	2.0	22.0%	12.1%	9.9%	2.5%	2.42	4.16	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	0	200	788	174	95	20	0%	2.0	22.0%	12.1%	9.9%	2.5%	2.42	4.16	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adiel Melendez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	22.5%	11.5%	3.0%	—	4.64	22.8%	11.6%	138	-0.02	—	—	—
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	87
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	86
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	85
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	84
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	84
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	84
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	84
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	83
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	83
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	83
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.59	24.3%	15.3%	149	+0.91	3.68	206	82
Aaron Fultz L 2000 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.7%	9.4%	2.7%	.294	3.88	19.4%	12.5%	180	-0.12	3.46	480	82
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	82
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	82
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	82
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	25	SU	3.91	21.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.56	22.4%	11.6%	110	+0.65	3.90	265	82
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	82
Jerry Vasto L 2017 · 4.16 FIP	25	SU	4.16	22.2%	10.2%	3.0%	.382	3.52	24.0%	12.5%	38	-0.64	2.89	206	81
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	81
Jared Tobey L 2021 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	23.6%	11.8%	2.8%	.341	8.03	20.1%	1.1%	25	+3.92	3.99	158	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	44	22.8%	11.3%	1.16	4.63
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*