Gleiner Diaz — OGILVIE

Gleiner Diaz P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%19.2%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	17	0	23	98	27	19	0	0%	1.4	18.7%	24.2%	-5.5%	0.0%	2.74	4.59	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	17	0	23	98	27	19	0	0%	1.4	27.6%	19.4%	8.2%	0.0%	2.74	3.23	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	9	45	187	47	21	0	82%	4.1	17.1%	14.0%	3.1%	0.0%	2.40	3.43	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	9	45	187	47	21	0	82%	4.1	17.1%	14.0%	3.1%	0.0%	2.40	3.43	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	11	9	45	187	47	21	0	82%	4.1	25.1%	11.2%	13.9%	0.0%	2.40	2.41	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	28	136	29	16	2	0%	1.3	14.5%	10.4%	4.1%	1.5%	4.13	4.02	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	28	136	29	16	2	0%	1.3	14.5%	10.4%	4.1%	1.5%	4.13	4.02	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	28	136	29	16	2	0%	1.3	21.3%	11.8%	9.6%	1.5%	4.13	3.66	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	39	180	42	12	4	0%	1.3	16.4%	8.2%	8.3%	3.5%	7.15	4.68	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	39	180	42	12	4	0%	1.3	16.4%	8.2%	8.3%	3.5%	7.15	4.68	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	39	180	42	12	4	0%	1.3	23.3%	6.7%	16.7%	2.2%	7.15	3.20	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	36	0	55	227	70	10	5	0%	1.5	22.8%	5.2%	17.6%	2.9%	4.28	3.40	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	36	0	55	227	70	10	5	0%	1.5	22.8%	5.2%	17.6%	2.9%	4.28	3.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	SEA	36	0	55	227	70	10	5	0%	1.5	30.8%	4.4%	26.4%	2.2%	4.28	2.26	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SEA	53	0	56	234	48	21	7	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	2.9%	4.51	4.44	+0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	54	0	57	240	51	21	7	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	2.9%	4.40	4.33	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	55	0	58	243	53	21	7	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.5%	13.4%	2.9%	4.32	4.27	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	55	0	58	243	54	21	7	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.4%	13.7%	2.9%	4.28	4.25	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	54	0	57	239	53	20	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	2.9%	4.28	4.29	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	SEA	26	0	27	114	23	10	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	2.9%	4.51	4.44	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	38	0	40	169	36	14	5	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	2.9%	4.40	4.33	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	45	0	47	198	43	17	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.5%	13.4%	2.9%	4.32	4.27	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	48	0	50	211	47	18	6	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.4%	13.7%	2.9%	4.28	4.25	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	49	0	51	215	48	18	6	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	2.9%	4.28	4.29	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		205	0	215	909	198	78	26	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	2.9%	4.34	3.92	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	72	24	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	2.9%	4.34	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		114	9	190	828	151	91	15	8%	1.7	18.3%	11.0%	7.3%	1.8%	4.22	3.93	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	9	200	872	159	95	16	8%	1.7	18.3%	11.0%	7.3%	1.8%	4.22	3.93	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gleiner Diaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	19.2%	9.3%	2.9%	—	4.35	21.3%	12.7%	170	-0.29	—	—	—
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	92
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	91
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	90
Andrew Bash R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	18.0%	9.2%	2.1%	.273	4.21	14.9%	4.8%	146	+0.34	3.52	483	89
Jose Geraldo R 2022 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	18.9%	9.9%	2.0%	.337	4.47	19.0%	9.9%	49	+0.62	3.14	154	88
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	88
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	88
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	88
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	88
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	87
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	87
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	87
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	87
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	87
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	86
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	86
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	86
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	86
Blake Goldsberry R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	16.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.267	4.51	23.6%	13.4%	75	+0.42	3.43	117	86
Scott Williams R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	20.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.256	2.89	18.5%	11.2%	42	-1.88	2.89	119	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	51	21.5%	8.6%	1.11	4.38
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63