Christian Avendano prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Christian Avendano P ACL Giants

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 168 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%22.6%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	18	0	30	135	44	20	0	0%	1.7	22.2%	18.5%	3.6%	0.0%	5.10	3.57	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	18	0	30	135	44	20	0	0%	1.7	22.2%	18.5%	3.6%	0.0%	5.10	3.57	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	18	0	30	135	44	20	0	0%	1.7	32.6%	14.8%	17.8%	0.0%	5.10	2.17	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	13	0	16	79	21	13	0	0%	1.3	18.1%	20.6%	-2.5%	0.0%	7.16	4.18	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	13	0	16	79	21	13	0	0%	1.3	18.1%	20.6%	-2.5%	0.0%	7.16	4.18	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	13	0	16	79	21	13	0	0%	1.3	26.6%	16.5%	10.1%	0.0%	7.16	2.92	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.6%	15.2%	7.4%	2.9%	5.11	5.11	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SF	19	0	20	84	20	11	2	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.2%	10.2%	2.9%	4.87	4.77	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	SF	10	0	10	42	10	6	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	13.2%	10.2%	2.9%	4.87	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.2%	10.2%	2.9%	4.87	4.39	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	102	20	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.2%	10.2%	2.9%	4.87	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		31	0	46	214	44	41	0	0%	1.5	20.7%	19.3%	1.4%	0.0%	5.83	3.80	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	0	200	924	191	178	0	0%	1.5	20.7%	19.3%	1.4%	0.0%	5.83	3.80	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Avendano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	22.6%	15.2%	2.9%	—	4.77	23.4%	10.2%	20	-0.34	—	—	—
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	92
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	91
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	89
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	89
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	89
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	88
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	88
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	86
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	86
Gabriel Ponce R 2021 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	24.4%	16.2%	2.8%	.328	4.53	22.5%	7.8%	110	-0.09	4.45	161	86
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	86
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	86
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	85
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	85
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	85
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	85
David Ellingson R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	23	SU	4.15	20.5%	14.6%	1.7%	.362	3.52	18.0%	10.2%	105	-0.63	3.43	150	85
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	85
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	85
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	85